Implementing an automated strike zone would cause a lot of change in Major League Baseball, but has the impact it would have on one group of MLB players been overlooked?
With MLB’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire in December, baseball scribes across the land are proposing changes to the game. There are impending changes to the strike zone, among other things, for 2017, but those don’t cover other popular alterations such as those discussed by CttP’s Benno Martens or Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci.
Some ideas that seem to be gaining more traction are the universal designated hitter and a shorter season. One change that could improve a critical part of the game of baseball is an automated strike zone.
Multiple parties will have to be on board in order for this change to happen, including umpires and the MLB Players Association. Calling balls and strikes is under the purview of umpires so an automated strike zone would change their job description. It would also affect pitchers and hitters, who experience vastly different levels of success depending on the count. But it would affect another party just as much: catchers.
The way MLB games are won, evaluated and even covered in the media is based on hundreds of millions of points of data. One of the revelations that’s come from analyzing that data is that catchers can save or cost their teams lots of runs by influencing ball-strike calls on borderline pitches. When pitches on the fringes of the strike zone are called strikes more frequently, pitchers are able to work in favorable counts more often and hitters are put at a disadvantage.
The best example of this hidden talent is Russell Martin. Even though he hit 21 home runs in 2012 as a member of the New York Yankees, Martin, a free agent after that season, wasn’t going to command a lot of money due to a career-low on-base percentage and career-high strikeout rate. But the Pittsburgh Pirates nabbed him for a team-friendly deal because they saw his hidden pitch-framing talents. In Big Data Baseball: Math Miracles, and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writer Travis Sawchik provides insight into what the Pirates saw:
"“…[Martin] had saved 70 runs through pitch framing over the five years from 2007 to 2011; ranking last was Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit…But initially, the public did not understand, did not see Martin’s pitch-framing ability. And the rest of the industry wasn’t quite ready to buy into pitch framing the way the Pirates had. What the public wasn’t able to see was that Martin had just improved the Pirates by nearly 40 runs per season over their previous catchers, and it had nothing to do with his bat—which everyone kept judging him by.”"
That’s a lot of value from a skill that is almost invisible. In fact, it’s so valuable that teams are willing to pay for it even if the player is offensive dead weight. Consider Jose Molina, who was able to catch 281 games for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2012 to 2014 solely because he was an adroit pitch framer: according to Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs metric, Molina saved the Rays 70.5 runs over that span with 30.4 in 2012, 23.4 in 2013 and 16.7 in 2014. His on-base plus slugging percentage over that span was .557.
An automated strike zone would make the skill of pitch-framing obsolete, meaning if baseball had used one, Martin never would’ve caught the attention of the Pirates and his career would have been altered.
While such a change in the game would decrease the value—or take the jobs—of players such as Martin and Molina in the eyes of MLB front offices, it would increase the value of players such as the Kansas City Royals’ Salvador Perez. Perez had caught 53.45 percent of would-be base stealers entering play Wednesday, most in the league. Perez, however, is not a good pitch framer as he’s cost his team 10.9 runs this season. An automated strike zone would remove this blemish from his report card.
If an automated strike zone were instituted, the position would become more athletic. Without the value of pitch framing, a strong arm, agility and running speed would become more important than the ability to deceive an umpire. The Rays would’ve been less willing to sign a player like Molina, who was middle-of-the-pack in terms of throwing out runners.
An increased emphasis on athleticism may increase the offensive contribution of catchers. Entering play Wednesday, MLB catchers had a combined .301 weighted on-base average, the lowest among position players by 10 points; shortstops were second lowest at .311. Athletic catchers such as the San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey and Philadelphia Phillies prospect Jorge Alfaro—both converted infielders—might start to show up in your favorite team’s lineup. (Posey was fourth among MLB catcher’s with a .351 wOBA entering Wednesday and Alfaro was 16th in the Double-A Eastern League in OPS at .789.)
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Even with an automated strike zone, catcher would still be a position that would require nuance. Game-calling would still be an important skill. Catchers often fill the unofficial roles of on-field sports psychologist and assistant pitching coach, coaxing pitchers out of jams. But implementing an automated strike zone would definitely change the way the position is viewed.