MLB: The Biggest X-Factors for the Postseason Push
With the MLB playoffs just under two months away, there are still many races that look to go down to the wire. What players will have the largest impact on which clubs will be able to play in October?
Now that the MLB trade deadline has passed us by and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pack, the only question remains which teams will find themselves looking in and out of the postseason picture come late September.
Throughout the regular season it started to seem like the only the American League East would have a photo finish in terms of who would win the division. However, a couple of unexpected races have come about in recent weeks.
In the AL Central, it looked like the Cleveland Indians would run away with the division crown, especially after they added All Star reliever Andrew Miller. But, things have played out much differently than many expected thanks to a recent surge from the Detroit Tigers. Brad Ausmus has led his team to a 15-10 record since the All Star break, which included an eight-game winning streak from July 25-August 3. Now Detroit sits a mere 4.0 games back of the first place Indians with a lot of baseball still to play.
Another race that is looking more competitive everyday is the fight for the NL West between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Dodgers, even without Clayton Kershaw, have managed to cut the Giants lead to only one game. This seemed almost undoable as the Giants were playing better than any team in the MLB right up to the break. However, Bruce Bochy and his team have fallen on hard times just as their divisional rival is picking up steam.
Overall, there are probably still eight real postseason contenders left in each league, as the extra wild card continues to generate hope for teams that would have been thinking about 2017 in years past.
Being that there are still so many questions that need answering in the coming months, many of these playoff races may be decided by a couple of key contributors. Here are some of the biggest x-factors for this seasons’s postseason push.
Next: Orioles Young Pitching Duo
Baltimore has many strengths the make them viable World Series contenders. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the MLB, which includes an MVP candidate in Manny Machado. They have a deep bullpen that ranks as one of the best in the game, while also having a closer who’s perfect in save attempts this season in Zach Britton. Stating the obvious, the starting pitching remains the clear weakness of this ballclub. In the beginning of the year, it looked like eventually the starting pitching would hold back the Orioles back from being a true contender, but as of today, the team is right there for first place in the AL East.
However, Baltimore is facing stiff competition from Toronto and Boston, both of whom have superior starting rotations. Trading for Wade Miley was kind of a letdown for O’s fans who were wanting more, but Dylan Bundy has been like a midseason trade acquisition with the way he has pitched over his past couple starts.
Bundy was a reliever to start the year and was expected to stay in that role as he built up innings coming off an injury. Desperate for starting pitching, Buck Showalter decided to give the former number four overall pick a shot in the starting rotation, and it has clearly looks like the correct decision. After a rough first outing against Tampa Bay, the 23 year-old has lowered his ERA from 3.70 to 3.05, allowing just five runs in 28.2 innings of work. He has been striking hitters out at a high clip, showing a mid-90s fastball and flashing great control of his breaking ball. If he continues to pitch the way that he has over his past couple of starts, the O’s will be even more dangerous than they already are.
Kevin Gausman is the other young pitcher on the Orioles staff. Unlike Bundy, the Orioles 2012 first round pick has had much more time as a starting pitcher. He became an everyday starter for the team in 2014, but has only had success in spurts throughout his time in the bigs. Gausman has all the makings of a number one. He can throw the ball in the high-90s, he’s athletic and has a repeatable delivery. However, his pure stuff has not yielded elite results quite yet.
He’s done much better this season than last, as he has pitched to an ERA around 4.00. While that’s far from bad, his stuff projects much better numbers than the ones that he has been putting through his first couple seasons. We’ll see if Gausman can turn his exceptional pitching arsenal into actual results during the stretch run. If at least one of the two starting pitchers can find/contnue their quality form in the coming months, it would drastically shift the outlook of the American League and perhaps the MLB in general.
Next: Blue Jays Decision Makers
2. Toronto Blue Jays Front Office/Coaching Staff
As their division rival Orioles are starting to get major contributions from one of their premier young starting pitchers (Bundy), the Blue Jays are dealing with the harsh reality of pushing possibly the best starting pitcher in the American League to the bullpen.
Aaron Sanchez currently has the lowest earned-run average among qualifying starters in the AL. Once drafted in the late first round in 2010, the 24 year-old has seen quick success at the major league level. He throws hard like many top tier pitchers, and has been much better at not walking batters as he has improved his walk rate of a 4.3/9 IP last season to just 2.6/9 IP in 2016. Major league hitters have clearly not been what’s given the young right-hander trouble this season, his drawback has been his perceived innings limit.
Like many first-year hurlers, clubs are very careful with how many innings they let their young, controllable arms throw. In fact, the team just announced that they would be shifting to a six man rotation to help conserve Sanchez for the remainder of the season. Saving pitchers has been a hot button topic in the MLB dating back to when Stephen Strasburg was first dominating with the Nationals in 2012, during their playoff run. We know that Strasburg got hurt anyway and Washington was bounced in the playoffs. This probably won’t affect the way Toronto handles Sanchez this season as they seem hell bent on shifting him to the bullpen at some point.
John Gibbons and Mark Shapiro have a tough decision to make with whether to continue with their innings limit plan or if they will backtrack as losing their best starter does not look all too good as October baseball approaches.
It’s interesting to look at this dynamic compared to that of the Orioles and their sudden shift to starting Dylan Bundy, as they completely oppose each other during the AL East divisional race. You aren’t guaranteed to compete for the postseason every year, and not allowing your best pitcher to throw innings in the playoffs is very likely to backfire on a franchise that went a long time without competitive baseball late in the regular season.
Next: Red Sox Bullpen Acquisitions
Winning close games is normally a staple of a playoff team, and unless your starting pitching is that good where they get into the eighth inning during every start, playoff-bound clubs need their bullpens to be able to shut down victories in the late innings.
Dave Dombrowski got busy this past month in making sure that the Red Sox have the roster to win those closely contested ballgames. A few weeks before the MLB trade deadline, Boston made a trade for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Brad Ziegler. The 36 year-old side-armed pitcher was the closer with his former team, but would shift to being one of Craig Kimbrel‘s setup men in Beantown.
This became of added importance when Kimbrel and Koji Uehara went down during the middle part of July, shifting Ziegler to the ninth inning. He has been very good since being traded as he has only allowed one earned run in nine innings pitched with the Red Sox (before his blow up last night).
Kimbrel just recently returned from injury, but the team learned that they would lose Uehera for the rest of the year. This being the case, the front office added former Minnesota Twins left-hander, Fernando Abad on August 1.
Abad is a solid reliever that will be able to match left-handed hitters late in games, which is something that the Red Sox needed in their bullpen.
Even though Kimbrel is back, injuries to pitchers is never an encouraging sign, so adding two relief pitchers is crucial to helping the Red Sox close games during the next couple of months. If Abad and Ziegler are able to continue to be productive in holding leads, Boston will be able to keep pace in the AL East. If not, the Red Sox will most likely not be much competition in terms of winning of their division.
Next: A Cleveland Indians Starter
4. Trevor Bauer
Trading for Andrew Miller was critical in terms of making the Indians a real World Series threat. But make no mistake, Cleveland will live or die by how dominant their starting pitching is. For the most part, their rotation has been one of the premier staffs in the MLB. Danny Salazar was a top three starting pitcher at the midway point of the season in the American League. Corey Kluber continues to thrive since his breakout season a few years ago. Carlos Carrasco and to a lesser extent, Josh Tomlin, have continued to be productive this season. The team’s true wild card for the playoff push is Trevor Bauer.
Once a top five selection in the MLB draft, Bauer was inconsistent as a professional, leading him to lose out on a starting rotation spot to start the year. However, Bauer firmly regained his place on the Indians pitching staff with a run of outstanding outings in June. He has tampered off in the second half the season as his ERA has climbed back to 3.88, but the stuff and ability still remains for the 25 year-old starter.
Losing Danny Salazar for the near future was not ideal for a team that relies on it’s starting pitching, so having their other starters step up during his absence is going to be crucial as they compete with the Detroit Tigers for the divisional crown. In order to maintain pace in the American League during the last month and a half, Trevor Bauer is going to have to be the pitcher he was two months ago. The right-hander is the definition of a boom-or-bust pitcher, both striking out and walking hitters at a high rate. He has an unorthodox delivery and his command can escape him at times. But, when the young hurler is on, he’s on.
Having the entire rotation round back into form over the closing parts of the regular season could be the difference in determining which AL team gets home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Bauer is far from a slam dunk for the remainder of the season, but if he can perform to his high ceiling, the Indians will be in a much position to win the AL Central.
Next: Nationals Top Prospect
5. Trea Turner
There is always a couple of midseason call ups that will drastically shift the postseason picture, and it looks like Trea Turner will be one of those players. The decision to move the 23 year-old shortstop to the MLB seemed inevitable since the start of the season, especially with the way Danny Espinosa, the club’s current shortstop, was hitting to start the year.
However, the call up didn’t come until early June, which was just for two games. He was then sent back down to the minors as the Washington Nationals offense continued to sputter. Turner made his way back to the majors in mid-July and hasn’t looked back.
At the moment, Turner his hitting .287 and already has swiped eight bases in just the 23 games that he has appeared in. The exceptional speed was expected from the former first round pick as he had stolen 29 bases in the minor leagues the year before. What wasn’t expected was that Turner would be hitting so well while shifting around the on defense. Danny Espinosa remains the team’s starting shortstop, meaning that Turner has had to get playing time and second base and in center field. He has played admirably in both positions and continues to have a profound impact on the Nationals lineup.
Turner brings some much needed youth and dynamic play to a team that lacks a certain element of speed, considering that offseason acquisition Ben Revere has been in and out of the lineup often this season. If Turner can continue to swing the bat and make an impact both defensively and on the basepaths, combined with their outstanding starting rotation, Washington will be much more of a threat to the National League leading Chicago Cubs as the regular season reaches its climax.
Next: The question in the middle
St. Louis lost a big piece before the season when it was revealed that Jhonny Peralta would be on the disabled list for a few months after injuring his thumb in March. The club did not expect that they would find another All Star to take his place, but they managed to find one anyway.
Aledmys Diaz was an organizational piece at the start of Spring Training, signing for just 2 years, $5 million as an international free agent. In spite of the odds, the 26 year-old won the starting shortstop job and burst onto the scene as he was hitting everything in sight during the opening part of the season. This helped Diaz land a spot on the All Star team and become a key cog in the middle of a solid Cardinals batting order. With multiple promising players disappointing in 2016, such as Randal Grichuk and Kolten Wong, having Diaz break out helped keep St. Louis in the playoff picture.
Now it seems that the tables have turned in August, as Diaz was just forced to the disabled list after being hit on his thumb during an at bat. Peralta has now shifted back into his role as the starting shortstop, but this will certainly not be benefitting the Cardinals. At 34 years old, Peralta has seen a decline in both his offensive and defensive capabilities this season. His on-base percentage isn’t even above .285 right now. The good news is that his power has remained consistent during his time back as he has raised his home run percentage per game to 13 percent, which is up from 10 percent in 2015.
Their is a tight race for the two National League wild card spots, and with the Cubs running away with the NL Central, the only chance St. Louis has is besting teams like the Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Dodgers for the remainder of the season.
Everything about the Cardinals screams average, though. Outside of Carlos Martinez, the rotation has been middle of the road, Trevor Rosenthal is not even close to the dominant closer we’ve seen over the past few seasons and the lineup, while having a couple of solid players, is not a premier offense.
Losing a middle of the order bat during a postseason push is most definitely deflating. Luckily, Mike Matheny has a proven veteran hitter to fill the void. Jhonny Peralta has a history of success in the MLB, and he could be a major difference maker if he helps to offset the loss of a an All Star player in the near future.
Next: Giants Bullpen
7. San Francisco Giants Bullpen
This is an even year isn’t it? Shouldn’t the Giants be favored to win a world title yet again? As of right now, there are many teams that should be considered more likely to be the last team standing on October for many reasons. Primarily, that the Giants have been playing very poorly since the All Star break.
Going into the second half, the Giants were atop the Chicago Cubs in the standings and seemed poised to once again make a deep postseason run. However, things have been changing for the worse for Bruce Bochy and company.
Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto, their starting rotation has been subpar. They did manage to add a promising arm in Matt Moore at the MLB trade deadline, which should help them as the regular season winds down. The lineup is good, but not great, as the club ranks 14th in runs scored. Their isn’t much power throughout the order too, as the team relies on guys that mostly just get on-base. This isn’t necessarily a back breaker, but it means that San Francisco will have to grind out a lot of wins in the coming months.
This brings us to the major sticking point of the 2016 San Francisco Giants…their bullpen. Santiago Casilla is a capable, albeit not elite closing option, Sergio Romo just returned from injury and Brian Sabean added former Milwaukee Brewers left-handed reliever, Will Smith, on deadline day. However, he has had a rough go of it in his first couple appearances since being dealt. The 27 year-old has allowed four runs in six innings of work. This is not what the Giants had in mind when they acquired the promising left-hander.
As the playoffs inch closer and closer, the games will become much more competitive, especially when playing teams fighting for the same playoff spots. The Giants are going to need their bullpen to be solid late in games if they hope to remain the champions of the even year. The bullpen has it’s fair share of talent, but is not dominant enough where their success is a given as teams certainly have hope against this group when trailing in the later innings. Bumgarner and Cueto will pitch deep into games, the Giants bullpen just needs to be able to hold onto to those wins if they hope to remain on top of the NL West at end of the regular season.
Next: The Kershaw Conundrum
8. Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw was possibly on track to having the best season of his career through the first couple months of the regular season. The 29 year-old and former NL Cy Young winner has established his place has the MLB’s most dominant pitcher during the past few years, but what he was doing this season was just simply not human.
He had an ERA under 2.00, throwing three complete games in just the month of May. He went at least seven innings in 14 of his 16 outings. He also posted a quality start in his first 15 appearances of the year and walked an insane 0.7 hitters per nine innings. Even with this success, the Dodgers found themselves in the middle of the pack, and once again were playing second fiddle to the decorated San Francisco Giants.
Not only has Kershaw been dominant but he’s been durable over the course of his career as well. The 6’4”, 225 lbs. lefty has made 30 starts in a season six times over the past seven years. Thinking of life without their ace seemed almost unimaginable for the Dodgers.
To the chagrin of the Dodgers management and fans alike, that’s exactly what happened, as Kershaw exited his start on June 26 and hasn’t returned since. He was even moved to the 60 day disabled list a few days ago. With this injury, many pundits were calling for the race with the Giants to be over with still over a half a season let. But to the surprise of many, the Dodgers have played better in Kershaw’s absence as they’ve closed the NL West lead to within a game.
Hitting has been a major part for the turnaround in Los Angeles. Justin Turner is beginning to find his stroke again, hitting three home runs in his past seven ballgames, while pushing his average up to .275. They’ve replaced the struggling Yasiel Puig with Josh Reddick as well. This with the continued production from Corey Seager and Adrian Gonzalez makes the Dodgers offense much more dangerous than it was a moth ago.
If the club can get Kershaw back in September, Los Angeles would have their best shot of advancing through the postseason in many years.
Now if the Dodgers ace can’t return, the performances of offseason signee Kenta Meada and trade acquisition Rich Hill are going to be paramount in answering if the Dodgers can wrestle away the division title from San Francisco. Hill continues to be out of the rotation with a blister in his thumb, but when he returns, the Dodgers will be adding the best statistical pitcher from the American League in the first half of the season, with Hill holding an ERA in the mid-2.00s and posting a strikeout rate that would top the AL if he qualified.
Kenta Maeda also saw early success during his first stint in the MLB as he came out of the gate allowing one run in his first four starts. The 28 year-old would go on a slump in May, failing to finish six innings four different times during the month. Maeda has since bounced back, but continues to pitch poorly in spots. Being that he is not fully acclimated to baseball in the United States, people shouldn’t expect him to replace Kershaw at the top of the rotation, but in order for the Dodgers to win the division, they need consistent innings from the former Japanese League star.
Both starting pitchers will play key roles in determining if the Dodgers are 2016 NL West champions or whether they miss the postseason in general. The offense is coming around, but with Kershaw out for the foreseeable future and the likes of Ross Stripling and Brandon McCarthy manning the back of the rotation, Hill and Maeda need to pitch well in August and September.
Next: Yankees Botch A-Rod Sendoff
What players do you see shaping the MLB playoff picture? Share your thoughts below.