New York Mets Offensive Woes Due to Poor Hit Sequencing
The New York Mets can’t string enough hits together to score runs, which is undermining the efforts of one of the best pitching staffs in the game.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins is justified venting after yesterday’s 9-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Entering the game the Mets were 29th in runs per game and tied for 25th in adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+). Only the Atlanta Braves have scored fewer runs per game.
With the loss and the Yankees’ 4-2 win over the Boston Red Sox, the Mets (57-57) have a worse record than a team that is focusing on winning in the future. They were considered strong contenders to win the National League East after coming off a World Series appearance. They re-signed outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, traded for second baseman Neil Walker and had a young, talented pitching staff returning.
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The Mets had a 15-7 record at the end of April but have losing records in May and June and are 3-7 in August. They haven’t won consecutive games since July 6 and 7. Since adding outfielder Jay Bruce at the trade deadline, the Mets are 3-6 and Bruce is slashing .171/.237/.343.
Cespedes is worth every cent to the Mets. He leads the Mets with a 140 OPS+ and 22 home runs, but he’s on the 15-day disabled list with a quad injury. Walker is providing above average production with a 111 OPS+, but the rest of the offense isn’t providing much assistance.
Terrible luck with hit sequencing is the root of the Mets’ offensive struggles. Hit sequencing, also called cluster luck, deals with how a team is able to bunch together its hits. If you’ve ever read something akin to “pitcher X scattered nine hits over Y number of innings and allowed one run,” it means the opposing team didn’t string those hits together in a way that would allow them to score lots of runs. In this the Mets offense is by far the worst team in baseball, losing 51.4 runs.
Cluster luck can have huge consequences for a team. The St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff rode some of the best cluster luck ever to an NL Central title last season. The Texas Rangers are riding good cluster luck right before our eyes. Even if better luck gave the Mets just 20 runs, it could mean several wins for a team that has lost 18 one-run games.
The poor cluster luck points to big problems with offensive execution. With runners in scoring position the Mets have struck out in 24.3 percent of plate appearances, tied for second highest in the majors. (The Mets are sixth overall in K%.) They are batting an MLB-worst .243 on balls in play and their .605 OPS is also the worst in MLB. Curtis Granderson has a .417 OPS in these situations. Yes, you read that correctly.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the offensive struggles is the pitching staff’s dominance. Entering Thursday, the Mets’ rotation was first in fielding independent pitching (3.35), third in earned run average (3.48), first in home runs per nine innings (0.86) and first in jolly elder statesmen. The bullpen has been just as stout, sitting at fifth in the majors in both ERA and FIP.
Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom will finish in the top five in NL Cy Young voting and Steven Matz has an outside chance to win the NL Rookie of the Year. All this even though Matt Harvey’s season ended after 17 starts.
Next: Phillies Pitching Issues May Short Circuit Season
Unless the Mets get a spark from Cespedes’ return from the DL or from a minor leaguer the Mets’ playoffs hopes may burn out much sooner than expected.