San Diego Padres: Scouting Report on 1B Josh Naylor
The San Diego Padres acquired 1B Josh Naylor in a trade with the Miami Marlins. What sort of player is he?
Who Is He?
The Marlins picked Naylor as the 12th overall selection in the 2015 draft out of high school in Ontario, Canada. He was known as a big power lefty bat that was going to be a “bad body” guy and need to hit a ton to succeed. He did just that in his first exposure to pro ball in the Gulf Coast League for the Marlins team in that league, hitting .327/.352/.418 with a home run and 4 doubles.
The Marlins sent Naylor to Greensboro in the low-A, full season South Atlantic League, a significant jump for a 19 year old, but not uncommon for such a high pick. He responded with solid production, but not exactly the power that the Marlins were looking for, hitting .269/.317/.430 with 9 home runs, 24 doubles, and 10 stolen bases with a 22/62 walk-to-strike out rate. He was part of the trade with the San Diego Padres that brought Andrew Cashner to the Miami Marlins.
On June 5th of the 2016 season, Naylor was involved in an incident that may have predicated his trade from Miami and made him perhaps more available than expected for a player just a year removed from being a top-15 pick in the entire draft. He injured teammate Stone Garrett in what was initially described as a prank by multiple news sources. However, Garrett’s agent refuted the team’s account of the “prank”, stating that there was more malicious intent. Garrett’s injury to his hand required three stitches and surgery on his thumb, and Naylor ended up suspended for a game. Upon the trade, Stone Garrett had this to say, via Twitter:
Not exactly a warm send off…
Next: Naylor's scouting report
Scouting Report
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Body/Basics
Naylor is a lefty hitting and throwing first baseman. He’s listed at 6′ and 225 pounds, and he could even be more hefty than that, looking to have added some good and bad weight both since being drafted.
Hitting
Naylor stands straight in the box and has little movement as the pitch is delivered. He shows a good ability to move his hands to adjust to pitch location, but from my viewing, he struggles with recognizing the edges of the zone, often chasing balls outside of the zone, even if he did have the ability to contact those balls and foul them off.
His ability to adjust his hands leads me to think that there could be more contact ability than he’s show this year so far. In all seriousness, I see an ability to be a legit .300 hitter with his ability to adjust to various different pitches in various locations. Pitch recognition was not an issue, and though he did struggle at times to put the best of the bat on the ball each time, any teenager in full-season ball simply contacting all pitches the way he does is a notable thing. I’d probably put a future 60 or even 65 grade on his hit tool.
The power to me seems a bit different. While it’s not hard to see why folks would believe there could be great power in that swing, I’m not sure I agree with the heights to which it’s praised. He has a very natural powerful contact to the ball, but the best swings he gets on balls tend to be more gap balls and line drive balls that end up doubles rather than balls with carry. He certainly has the body frame to hit home runs, but I’m curious about him having to adjust his swing to make it happen.
Base Running/Fielding
It’s not a surprise that Naylor is not much of a base stealer. The issue I worry about with him is that he seems to really struggle running the bases as well. That’s a big issue going forward as his instincts on balls hit in the outfield are quite poor right now.
Naylor is a more adept fielder than one might think, but he’s not likely to make anyone forget Mark Texeira anytime soon. He is, however, quite solid at digging balls from the dirt, and I was surprised how well he worked arm side, doing well getting to balls between his location and the line. Once again, I have trouble being definite about his ability in the field translating up the line due to the questionable nature of them.
Video
Next: Future outlook
Future Outlook
It took all of two seconds of Naylor’s swing to know exactly who I saw in him – fellow former Padre John Kruk. Kruk also came up in the Padres organization. Kruk had a very solid contact swing, and that became an issue for many teams who wanted to see him as a power hitter due to his role at a first baseman.
Kruk found a team in the Phillies who appreciated his contact skills and were willing to live with them, and he thrived there, but by then, he was already past 30, and his body had started to betray him. After the 1993 World Series team, during which Kruk would hit .316/.430/.475, Kruk had a total of 489 plate appearances due to injuries. However, Kruk also took until he was 25 to break into the major leagues, partially due to his contact-focused skill set at first base.
I could see a similar path for Naylor, working his way up to AA quickly, but hanging between AA and AAA for a while as he builds his strike zone judgement, waiting for a chance to show himself, but like Kruk, the chances may be few and far between for his skill set at a position that will likely expect different results from a guy at his build.
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Naylor’s play in high-A with the Padres Lake Elsinore has been solid, though his lack of zone judgement continues to be an issue. Playing well at high-A already at 19 is impressive, though, and it should show well for him. I would wager that the Padres start him there again in 2017 with an eye on promoting him quickly if he shows well.