MLB: Top Three Landing Spots for Jonathan Papelbon
We all knew this day was coming, it just took a little longer than expected. After Jonathan Papelbon choked the soon-to-be NL Most Valuable Player in Bryce Harper down the stretch of the 2015 campaign, many were shocked that he made it back to the Washington Nationals to begin 2016. Now the 35-year-old closer is a free agent for the postseason push.
Papelbon is in the midst of the worst season of his career, holding a 4.37 ERA, his poorest performance since 2010 when he was still a member of the Boston Red Sox and held a 3.90 mark. That said, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is at just 3.68, which still isn’t great, but does give hope to contenders that there may still be enough left in the tank that he could be a useful piece down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon’s strikeouts per nine took a large dip following the 2012 season when he put up an 11.83 K/9 rate, following that up with an 8.32 rate in 2013. Since then his strikeouts have remained fairly consistent and in 35 innings pitched this season he has a slightly higher rate than last year at 7.97 compared to 7.96 between his time with the Phillies and Nationals.
The closer’s fastball has dropped four miles an hour since he was finishing off games in the World Series for the Sox in ’07, going from an average of 94.3 to 90.9. By no means is Papelbon still the same pitcher that he once was, but in the right situation with the right team, he could still prove to be a valuable addition to a contending team’s bullpen mix.
Next: Reunion?
Boston Red Sox
The Sox are the most logical fit, as a return to the team that drafted him may be enough to squeeze some use out of Papelbon. With Craig Kimbrel just off the disabled list and Koji Uehara‘s timetable for a return very much up in the air, adding the free agent reliever would be a depth move with some room for a prominent role if injuries act up or continue to accrue.
The current relief corps has been struggling, as new addition Fernando Abad has two losses in five appearances and holds a 9.82 ERA. Junichi Tazawa hasn’t been much better, allowing three homers in his four August innings which have lead to a 9.00 ERA for the month. Brad Ziegler has a hold, a save and a loss for his new team en route to a 6.75 ERA over his four innings. Papelbon could certainly (potentially) provide this group a boost. That is, if the layoff can have some effect on his recent performance. In the five outings he had leading up to being let go, Papelbon had allowed eight earned in 3.1 innings pitched. Before that stretch he had held a 2.56 ERA.
The big question in Boston is whether or not the new Red Sox regime would consider adding Papelbon, as they have no previous relationship with him. Rob Bradford of WEEI tweeted out that a source close to the situation said that Papelbon would be open to a reunion with the Red Sox.
Yet, there are other teams that could also be good fits for the services of Jonathan Papelbon, including one that helped inflate his ERA over the past two weeks.
Next: Their Closer Blows Saves Too!
San Francisco Giants
Santiago Casilla has blown some games by giving up game-winning home runs this season, but after a rocky June had begun to turn things around. Then, Casilla gave up a go-ahead three-run homer to Jonathan Schoop on Sunday to bring back the early-season memories and bring to the forefront the question of whether or not the Giants need to make a move.
The return of Sergio Romo was supposed to help solidify what had been a very shaky bullpen, but his 4.02 ERA doesn’t inspire confidence, and he has been used more in a situational role than as a late inning option. The Giants could use another arm with closing experience, and their penchant for winning should be enough to keep Papelbon’s ego at bay.
Whether or not the Giants would make such a bold move that could potentially disrupt their clubhouse chemistry is a big “if” however. As one of the better defensive teams in baseball, and playing a an excellent pitcher’s park, Papelbon’s ERA would look a whole lot better if he were to don the orange and black.
Next: Because Why Not?
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have already made a habit of adding some veterans this season after acquiring Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline. Their bullpen ERA of 475 ranks 27th in baseball, which can be a bit misleading. Outside of Jeremy Jeffress (4.50), who just joined the team after the deadline, and Keone Kela (5.49), the other five arms in the pen all have ERAs in the twos or low threes. Added to that, only Alex Claudio (2.70) has a negative WPA (win probability added).
The one thing that none of the arms currently in the Ranger bullpen has is World Series experience, and with the moves Texas has been making of late, that is where they want to end up. This could be a bit tricky, but adding Jonathan Papelbon to the roster for his experience (which he would hopefully bestow to the other relievers) could be a huge benefit to the club.
Texas is also the one destination that may not do as many favors for Papelbon’s ERA, as the ball tends to fly out of Globe Life Park around this time of year, and given his home run rate of 0.77 per nine (73rd among relievers with 30+ innings), the fit may not be the best on the table, but could provide the best opportunity to pitch in the postseason.