Los Angeles Dodgers: A Sabermetric Road to Recovery for Kershaw?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been without Clayton Kershaw since June 26. The best pitcher in baseball has been able to play catch recently, but likely won’t pitch off a mound for another week.
While Kershaw is progressing in his rehab, his return is far from imminent. While watching MLB Now yesterday afternoon, they showed video of the lefty tossing the ball around in his brightly colored shirt, and the usual remarks were made for an elite player on the road to recovery. While what they said on the set wasn’t terribly ground-breaking, perhaps the setting for the comments is what got me to thinking.
The panel discussed that Kershaw will need to probably make some rehab appearances once he is healthy enough, and that there just may not be enough time left in the season for Kershaw to have a big impact. MLB Now has deemed itself “The show for the thinking fan,” so while watching, I was thinking, and came up with this: Why not have Kershaw just pitch out of the bullpen with the Los Angeles Dodgers instead of sending him to Triple-A Oklahoma City or elsewhere?
This idea is called “bullpenning” and it is basically when you have someone start the game that isn’t your typical starting pitcher, then bring in someone, like Kershaw (which is about as good as it gets for bullpenning) to bridge the gap between the beginning of the game and the later innings. Those late-inning relievers are then used based on situation as opposed to what inning the game is in.
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In this specific example, you could pair Kershaw with one of the less reliable starters, and given the recent trip to the disabled list from Brandon McCarthy and the horrendous return from the DL from Brett Anderson who is now listed as day-to-day, getting Kershaw back into the fold as quickly as possible seems like a must.
Imagine starting the game with Ross Stripling, or even one of the Dodgers top pitching prospects like Julio Urias or Jorge De Leon, who are sure to be on innings limits anyway, and when it’s their turn for their first at-bat, you use a pinch-hitter, increasing the team’s likelihood of scoring, no matter the situation. Then, at the start of the next inning you bring in the best pitcher in baseball.
Of course, he’ll be on a pitch count, but it’s likely he could get through at least two innings, if not three. If his turn in the lineup comes up and the Dodgers don’t want him to hit, they could either pinch-hit for him or just simply not have him swing the bat. If there’s a runner on, in this case Mr. Kenny would likely be alright with a bunt, since you’re already conceding the out with a strikeout.
The larger point would be to bridge the gap as much as possible between your starter(s) and your dominant relief pitcher, Kenley Jansen. Notice I didn’t say closer.
The obvious reason this likely won’t happen is one that Brian Kenny touched upon a lot in his book “Ahead of the Curve,” which is media scrutiny. There are numerous examples of the media taking analytics to task. If you disagree, what are your thoughts on the term “closer by committee”? All that is is using the right reliever in the right situation, which is designed to help win games. Instead, relievers are paid for arbitrary saves, so the top arms want to accumulate saves and make money. It’s economics, not baseball.
So why even bring this up? The Dodgers front office is one of the most likely to give this a whirl. They have Andrew Friedman, the architect of the Tampa Bay Rays (relevant edition) as well as a number of other well-renowned executives, known most for their forward thinking.
The situation seems to be presenting itself for the Los Angeles Dodgers to potentially bring bullpenning to the big leagues, yet on a small scale. In theory a team would do this every day, and Clayton Kershaw is not one of the names that would likely be associated with the move, since he is dominant from pitch one.
Aside from scrutiny from the media, the other detractor for this particular instance could be the notorious pre-game routine of Kershaw, who notably does the exact same things at the exact same times on each of his start days, according to Molly Knight’s book “The Best Team Money Can Buy.” Working in relief would definitely screw up his routine, but if this is one way to get him on a major league field sooner, and with a playoff berth potentially hanging in the balance, then it may be worth a shot.