Chicago Cubs: Is Kris Bryant the Best Hitter in Baseball?

Kris Bryant was the Rookie of the Year in the National League in 2015. Not only has he avoided a sophomore slump with the Chicago Cubs, but he’s elevated his game to a whole new level in 2016.

Kris Bryant began to truly flourish during his time at the University of San Diego. Despite being drafted out of high school by the Toronto Blue Jays, Bryant felt that going to college would help him improve his game in a way that going pro couldn’t. In his first year at USD he dazzled scouts and coaches alike, but remained somewhat unpolished with plenty of holes in his swing. By time 2013 rolled around, he was an eye-popping prospect with superstar potential.

During that 2013 season, Bryant hit 31 home runs, the most by anyone since 2003, on his way to Baseball America’s 2013 Player of the Year. When the Chicago Cubs saw him on the board following the Houston Astros’ pick of Mark Appel, they jumped at the opportunity to add the slugger to their already impressive group of young position players.

Doubts abounded about whether Bryant would stick at third base. Would his power continue in Major League Baseball? And then there was the drama surrounding his inevitable call-up to the big leagues in the beginning of 2015. Despite all of the doubts and drama surrounding his entry into the big leagues, he continued to play his game and mash the ball.

During his 2015 rookie campaign, Bryant hit .275/.369/.488 with 26 home runs and a 136 wRC+. He was the best hitter among National League rookies, no doubt. His ability at the plate won him the award. However, he did have flaws in his game. Namely, his strong tendency to strikeout. In 2015 he had a strikeout rate of 30.6 percent, third highest among qualified hitters during that season.

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One of the things that has made Kris Bryant such a great hitter is his ability to recognize his strengths and weaknesses and work to make himself a better player. His intangible ability to do so dates back to the very beginning of his baseball playing days. In a piece about Bryant following his tremendous 2013 season at Baseball America, Bryant’s father talks about the drive he has always had to compete and get better.

Bryant’s drive to be better couldn’t have been more evident than between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Despite having a great season, winning Rookie of the Year, and being one of the best hitters on a very good Chicago Cubs team, Bryant wasn’t satisfied with how he was playing. He set out to make changes to better himself as a hitter. Although it seemed like he couldn’t possibly become much better than he was during his rookie campaign, Bryant has done it.

His first step was, of course, to attempt to lower his strikeouts and attempt to walk more. His walk rate has slightly dropped from 11.8 percent to 10.8 percent, but anything above 10 percent remains very good. The most important change for Bryant was lowering his 30.6 percent strikeout rate to 23.0 percent. He was third-worst in the category during 2015, and has dropped 33 positions in the rankings in 2016. It still leaves room for improvement but, as a power hitter, 23.0 percent is still a good strikeout rate.

As for the rest of his 2016, he’s been incredibly impressive. He’s played all over the field, showing good defensive skill at every position he’s been sent to. His defensive runs saved is +9 between the five different positions he has played this season (LF, CF, RF, 1B, 3B). With the bat, he’s gotten even better and is hitting .296/.392/.564 with 30 home runs and a 152 wRC+. He leads the National League in fWAR with 6.3, already prepared to surpass his 2015 total of 6.5.

Now we arrive at the main question: is Kris Bryant the best hitter in baseball? His main competitors are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, and his teammate Anthony Rizzo. Jose Altuve’s 2016 season suggests that perhaps he should be in that elite level of hitters, but I’m holding off for now.

Bryce Harper had a historic and nearly unmatchable 2015 season, but he’s slumped incredibly hard during 2016. His 2016 slump doesn’t take Harper out of the conversation, but right now it appears as though Bryant is the better hitter. Comparing Bryant and Harper is especially fun because of their friendship that dates back to when they played together in Las Vegas. Bryant gets the edge right now, but Harper might just come back in 2017 and light the league on fire again.

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Josh Donaldson burst onto the scene in 2014 with the Athletics, but he made even more noise in 2015 during his first year with the Blue Jays. He was the American League MVP last season after hitting 41 home runs and posting a .297/.371/.568 slash line. His 2015 season was so good that it’s only natural that his numbers have slightly dropped. Right now he’s hitting .289/.399/.556 with 28 home runs. His wRC+ in both seasons, however, is an identical 154. He’s been very good this season, and arguably the best hitter in either league. Bryant compares pretty well to Donaldson. They’re both power hitters who can also hit for average and drive in runs. Right now, I can’t give the edge to either player.

Mike Trout has been the best hitter in the American League since his rookie season, despite winning only one MVP award during that time. This season he’s having a typical Mike Trout season, hitting .309/.427/.550 with 23 home runs and a 166 wRC+. He doesn’t hit for power the same way that Donaldson and Bryant do (although he did hit 41 dingers in 2015), but he’s a better all-around hitter. His wRC+ indicates that, as well as his 6.9 fWAR which leads everyone in baseball. Mike Trout gives Kris Bryant the best run for his money, and very well may be the better hitter. We’ve seen more from Mike Trout, and he’s shown the ability to be consistently good. For now, it’s too soon to call Bryant the better hitter.

As for Rizzo, Bryant compares incredibly well to him. So much so that Joe Maddon jokingly campaigned for “Bryzzo” to win the MVP this season. Rizzo struggled in the first month of the season, but quickly returned to his normal form. He’s now hitting .291/.395/.566 with 25 home runs and a 151 wRC+. Those numbers are eerily similar to Bryant’s. Bryant and Rizzo are essentially on the same level, but Bryant has a slight advantage of youth. I can’t say one is better than the other, but the Chicago Cubs certainly benefit from having them back to back in the lineup.

Next: Is it Time to Worry about Stephen Strasburg?

Is Kris Bryant the best hitter in baseball? No, probably not. However, he’s made his way into the top 5 with only one clear hitter above him. If his improvements over his career, including from 2015 to 2016, are any hint as to how he will continue to improve, he’s got a great career ahead. Maybe one day in the near future he will separate himself as the best hitter in baseball, but Mike Trout and company won’t make it easy for him.

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