Chicago Cubs: Time to Worry About Jake Arreita?

After one of the best second half performances in baseball history last season, Jake Arrieta opened the season looking like a true ace. He’s fallen on some rough times as of late. Should the Chicago Cubs be worried?

The Chicago Cubs followed Jake Arrieta’s hot streak to the playoffs and all the way to the NLCS last season as he led their staff through the playoffs on one of the best runs of performance ever by a pitcher. He opened the 2016 performing similarly, and there were many believing Arrieta had simply found another level of performance and would now be an ace going forward. Many were urging the Cubs to get an extension done before having to work through arbitration further with Arrieta, as he could get very expensive.

The Stats

Last year in the second half, Arrieta had a historic performance. Per Baseball-Reference’s Play Index, Arrieta’s performance was the 2nd best 2nd half performance in the history of the game. In the 2nd half of the season, Arrieta made 15 starts, going 12-1 with a 0.75 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.76% BB rate, and 28.32% K rate. The only other guy in the top 5 who was from post-World War II was Tom Seaver in 1971. Only Johan Santana in 2004 and Clayton Kershaw (2011 and 2015) had seasons with 2nd half performances in the top 25 within the last 15 years.

Someone could look at Arrieta’s 2016 and see a guy with a 15-5 record, a 2.75 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.5% BB rate and 24.48% K rate. Those numbers obviously aren’t what his second half numbers of 2015 were, but they’re pretty darned good, right?

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On June 17th, Arrieta dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates for 6 innings to move to 11-1 as he hurled 6 scoreless innings and struck out 11. He’s made 10 starts since that start. In those starts, he’s now put up a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. That’s not a terrible thing. He’s also striking out 19.77% of hitters, which is a bit down, but that’s not alarming to me. What is alarming is his walk rate. I mentioned his season rate before at 9.5%. He’s posted a 10.58% rate in the past 10 starts! His walk rate was 8.54% before the last ten starts bumped it up a full percentage point!

Should the Cubs Be Worried?

Arrieta’s got a fairly extensive injury history, so for him to be injured would not be an outlandish possibility. Arrieta had never cleared 176 innings before last season. In 2015, he threw 229 regular season innings before adding 19 2/3 innings in the postseason, for a total of 248 2/3 innings on his season. He’s already thrown 153 2/3 innings this year, which would put him on pace to easily clear 200 innings again before the postseason.

The Cubs did do a nice job both in the offseason and at the deadline of hedging this possibility. First, they brought in John Lackey, a known successful postseason pitcher, to add to their rotation. The team has Kyle Hendricks leading the entire National League in ERA right now and making a legit case for the NL Cy Young award this year. He might not even start a playoff game with Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Lackey as the top 3 in a playoff rotation. Last, the Cubs went out and solidified their bullpen with moves at the trade deadline that allows them to shorten the game in the postseason to only 6 innings that they need from their starters, if even that!

The Contract Stuff

After his big 2015 season, many figured the Cubs would attempt to lock up Arrieta through his arbitration and beyond his first year or two of free agency. Arrieta is arbitration-eligible again for one more season and then he will become a free agent after the 2017 season. With a $10.7M salary this season, the Cubs are likely looking at a $15M salary or so for 2017. The thought was that the team may try to keep their costs down by locking him up.

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If there is an injury or the innings were perhaps more than what Arrieta could truly handle, perhaps the Cubs have been wise in waiting to negotiate with Arrieta in the end. I’ll certainly be watching to see how he finishes out his 2016 season!