MLB: 5 Teams That Could Find Themselves in Contention in 2017

At this point in the MLB season we have a good idea of which teams will be vying for playoff spots over the final six weeks, and a number of teams that aren’t close. Which of those teams could move their way up the standings next year and potentially push for a playoff spot?

First let’s go over some ground rules that I arbitrarily made up before writing this piece. Of the teams that are mentioned, three are mathematically still alive in the playoff hunt but realistically don’t have much of a shot of punching their ticket to October, while the remaining two teams are still very much technically in the wild card race in their respective leagues, but are by no means considered the favorites to clinch, and are hovering right around .500.

Second, I left the Houston Astros off this list, not because I don’t think that they will compete next season, but because that wouldn’t be much of a shocker to anyone. One team on the list has the same winning percentage as the Astros this season, but will be undergoing some major roster shakeups (spoiler: it’s the Yankees) as they look to get younger.

The Mets were left off of the list as well, which may prove to be a poor decision on my part, but as we have seen this year, if their starting rotation isn’t producing at an elite level one through five, then their offense just isn’t potent enough to make up the difference. Add in the fact that Yoenis Cespedes could elect free agency after the season, and the proposition of a return to the playoffs just may not be in the cards. If Cespedes returns to New York, I’ll reassess, but for now I’m operating under the assumption that he won’t be back.

Those are the ground rules. Now on to the teams!

Next: Since This One Has Already Been Spoiled

New York Yankees

The Yankees hold a 63-59 record entering play against the Angels on Sunday and have gone 11-7 since the trade deadline, when they notably moved Carlos Beltran and Andrew Miller after having previously traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. Since then, the Yankees have not been shy when it comes to promoting their young guns to the majors, and they have impressed.

Gary Sanchez has hit .379 while playing almost every game since August 3. He has drilled six homers in 14 games, with four of those coming in the last four contests. Not bad production from the guy that will be calling pitches behind the dish in pinstripes for years to come.

Aaron Judge made a name for himself upon his arrival after homering in his first two games, with the first coming on back-to-back jacks with fellow rookie Tyler Austin on the day they each debuted. He has cooled off a bit as his first week as motored on, collecting five hits in his last 19 at-bats, but he is still batting .308 with a .357 OBP. Austin has had a harder time adjusting, batting just .158, but his playing time will likely be more sporadic next season anyway with Greg Bird expected to return and take over at first base. 

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The Yankees should be able to hit in 2017, but it’s their pitching that will determine whether or not they will be in contention at the end of the season. Masahiro Tanaka will remain the ace, and beyond that there are a slew of question marks. The top names on the free agent market this offseason will be Rich Hill, Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister, and given the Yankees eye on the future, it’s unlikely that they will give any of these pitchers a long-term deal. Instead, they could look to trade from their suddenly deep farm system, with Sonny Gray still being a sought after name that could become available. Gray has a hard time growing facial hair, so he’s a natural Yankee.

Chad Green and Luis Cessa could end up being key cogs for the Yanks in 2017 if they hope to make a run at the playoffs. Both were acquired from the Tigers for lefty reliever Justin Wilson, who has a 4.57 ERA with Detroit. In his first start in the big leagues with New York on Saturday, Cessa went six scoreless, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out five. With Nathan Eovaldi likely out for all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, the young arms will have to step up in order for this team to compete, but they should have some help from the offense, too.

Next: Mile High Fever

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are still in the hunt for a playoff spot this season, sitting 6.5 games out of the second wild card in the National League. With six games remaining with both the Brewers and Diamondbacks, as well as a slew of games against the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals above them in the standings, there is a chance that Colorado could make a run this season and shock everyone.

If they don’t make it this year, 2017 should be the year they finally make it back to October baseball. With the big guns in Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez still under contract, the emergence of Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, and the high ceiling of David Dahl, the Rockies offense will be just fine. It’s their pitching, however, that could really come on strong.

Jon Gray has big the big name in Colorado’s system since he was drafted third overall in 2013, and has been making good on that selection this season. He holds a 4.69 ERA on the year after three rough starts that have bumped it up from his low-mark of 3.77 back on August 2. Gray has a strikeout rate of 9.38, which should lead to some future success if he can continue to make adjustments. To that point, while Gray’s ERA at home (5.11) is higher than his road mark, he is 5-1 at Coors, which means that he is keeping his team close, which may be enough in the thin air.

While Gray has been the big name, he’s certainly not the only arm in the rotation worth talking about. Tyler Chatwood, while currently on the disabled list, would win the NL Cy Young if he didn’t pitch at Coors, holding a 1.82 ERA in ten road starts. At home he holds a 5.43 ERA, which is interesting since he is primarily a fastball, cutter pitcher. This offseason the Rockies front office seemed to add pitchers that threw a lot of heaters with the hope that the air at Coors wouldn’t affect them as it does breaking pitches. Either way, Chatwood’s 3.75 ranks second on the team among starters to Tyler Anderson.

Anderson burst onto the scene in June and went four starts to begin his career allowing just two earned runs and hovering right around six innings pitched each time out. In his start on Friday against a high-powered Cubs squad–at Coors– he allowed a season-high five runs over seven frames and the Rockies got the win. That was an unusual outing for Anderson at home, given that he holds a 3.45 ERA there, which includes Friday’s game. On the season he has a 3.69 ERA.

While another high-potential arm just joined the rotation to face those same Cubs at Coors, Jeff Hoffman (acquired in the Troy Tulowitzki deal) did not have the same success in his big league debut. Hoffman went just four innings and gave up seven (six earned), earning the loss. Hoffman held a 4.02 ERA in Triple-A this season, but his road numbers show that he has lots of potential to make an impact next season with Colorado. He held a 3.12 ERA on the road, struck out nearly a batter an inning (more than one an inning in total) and had a WHIP of just 1.15. This is significant because the Rockies Triple-A team is located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where there is also altitude to contend with.

On the road, the Rockies have the starting pitching to compete in 2017, but with some minor improvements they could become a real threat in just a year’s time.

In three of the past four seasons the Rockies have ranked dead last in team ERA. As things stand right now, they are fourth from the bottom with a 4.89 mark. It’s not much, but it’s certainly something that Colorado can build on with their stable of young arms in the rotation.

Next: They May Get a Whiff of the Postseason

Milwaukee Brewers

Ah, another rebuild. The Brewers were just ranked as the number one farm system in baseball according to MLB Pipeline after acquiring right-hander Phil Bickford from the Giants and Luis Ortiz plus Lewis Brinson from Texas bolstered an already solid system. The Brewers may fall a bit on the list once top prospect Orlando Arcia loses his rookie eligibility, but the point remains–their system is deep.

At the big league level, some improvements can be made in the rotation (4.64 ERA, 21st in MLB). Out of 122 starts, only 46 have been deemed quality starts (37.7 percent), with 33 of those coming from Jimmy Nelson (4.31 ERA), Zach Davies (4.18) and Junior Guerra (2.93) who have eleven each.

Miller Park isn’t an easy place to keep runs to a minimum, but Nelson has pitched much better there than on the road, holding a 2.79 ERA over 80.1 innings. He has been dinged by the dinger, allowing 12 of his 19 long balls at home.

Davies had stellar months from May through July, accumulating a 2.84 ERA over 92 innings pitched. It’s the bookends to the season so far that have proved rough for the 23-year-old righty, posting a 7.71 ERA between April and August. There is only one pitcher on the staff that has posted a better WAR than Davie’s 2.1 this season, and that’s Junior Guerra.

Guerra is currently on the disabled list and made his big league debut relatively late as a 30-year-old last season with the Chicago White Sox. With Milwaukee this season, he has made 17 starts and posted a 2.93 ERA, good enough to be deemed the best pitcher on the staff with a 2.3 WAR. Given his age it’s hard to bank on Guerra for the long term, but with the season he has had for the Brewers, next year should be another productive one.

The Brewers added Jonathan Villar from Houston during the offseason for minor league pitcher Cy Sneed, and Villar, with consistent playing time, has flourished. Batting .300 for the season to go along with a .384 OBP, Villar has been one of the bright spots in an offense that ranks 24th in runs scored (495).

Hernan Perez has been a pleasant surprise this season, batting .283 with eleven homers and 41 driven in through 84 games, slotting him fourth among position players in WAR at 1.3 behind Ryan Braun (3.0), the departed Jonathan Lucroy (2.8) and Villar. Perez has played all around the diamond which should help his playing time through the rest of this season and into next year.

2017 may still be a little early for this team to really compete, especially given that they face the Cubs, Cards and Pirates way too much, but with some shrewd moves this offseason, the Brewers could be a surprise team come September.

Next: Just Throwing it Out There

Minnesota Twins

After overachieving their way to an 83-79 record in 2015, the Twins have underachieved their way to the worst record in baseball for parts of the season, sitting at 49-74 currently, just five games ahead of the completely blown up Braves.

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After breaking out in a big way in 80 games during the 2015 campaign, Miguel Sano has seen his batting average slip a bit from .269 to .245, while his power numbers have remained consistent. Problem is, his BABIP has fallen by nearly 60 points, and with it his OBP. He walks at a nice clip, 12.1 percent on the season, but his strikeout rate has remained at 35 percent while his defense between the outfield and third base has cost the Twins nine runs on the year.

Brian Dozier is set to enter his age 30 season in 2017, and has been a source of power in the Minnesota lineup over the last three years, combining for 79 homers and 222 RBI. He holds a team-leading 3.9 fWAR, so if he can continue his output at a similar rate to the last three seasons in 2017, the Twins may have a nice offensive foundation.

Max Kepler has been the Twins top rookie, clubbing 15 homers in 79 games while driving in 53 for a wRC+ of 116. If the two players that were expected to break out this season in Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios show signs of improvement next year, the foundation in Minnesota may be good enough to contend in a relatively weak AL Central. Of course the Tigers and Indians will be tough competition, but the Royals may be set for another rebuild, and the White Sox can’t seem to get out of their own way.

The pitching staff will certainly need some work outside of Ervin Santana and potentially Berrios, since there aren’t many arms that bring excitement. Southpaw Stephen Gonsalves and righty Kohl Stewart are two highly ranked arms in the system that could be ready as the season progresses, but the Twins will need to avoid digging a deep hole like they did this year.

Next: Astros GM Mad at the System

It’s far from a lock, but the Twins have had a deep farm system for a number of years and 2017 could be the year that things start to click. They’ll need a lot of help from that farm system and the rest of MLB in order to contend, but they’re a team that shouldn’t be as bad as they have been this season and could be looking at a large increase in wins next year.