New York Mets: Diagnosing Jay Bruce’s Struggles

The New York Mets acquired Jay Bruce to be a boost to their offense, but he has done nothing but tax the team since his arrival.

When the New York Mets made the trade to acquire Jay Bruce back on the first of August, they were in a bit of a rut. The reigning National League Champions found themselves in third place in the National League East with a middling 54 wins and 51 losses. Still, much of the season remained to be played, and it seemed like they just needed a little jolt to get going.

In hopes of providing this jolt sooner rather than later, the front office swung a trade for Jay Bruce. At the time, Bruce was a premier slugger with 25 home runs under his belt. He had posted a few down seasons but had seemingly turned things around to return to All-Star shape this year. Armed with a .265 batting average and a .295 isolated power, it appeared that he was the perfect player to get their sluggish offense going.

We are now three weeks removed from that trade, and things have yet to turn for the better for the New York Mets. Winning just six of their last seventeen contests, they now find themselves 12.5 games behind the Washington Nationals. Worse yet, FanGraphs gives them a pitiful 6.7 percent chance of making the playoffs after owning a 26.5 percent mark at the start of the month.

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Certainly, it would be irrational and unfair to pin the blame entirely on Jay Bruce, but he has been a big part of the struggles. Since the trade, he has batted a paltry .176 with nonexistent power totals. In fact, he owns more walks than extra base hits with the New York Mets. Instead of being the slugger who got things going, he has looked worse than the players he replaced.

What has gone wrong?

For one, Jay Bruce has naturally been a streaky hitter. A quick glance at his rolling weighted on-base average reveals many peaks and valleys. This is natural among all players to an extent, but Bruce’s swings are greater than the average player. He was bad, but not this bad, for a few weeks in late June and early July. In order to make up for these slumps, he typically posts torrid stretches between the downturns.

Still, other reasons exist for his struggles. Despite pitchers attacking him in roughly the same way, his contact rates are all wonky. His contact was never great to begin with, but they have fallen by three percentage points since joining the New York Mets. Much of this change has happened with pitches in the bottom and center of the zone. Instead of mashing these pitches, he has been finding nothing but air.

Interestingly enough, this change has coincided with a divergence in Bruce’s patience. The outfielder has always been an aggressive batter, but now he is even more so. Before the trade, he swung at many pitches in the core of the zone and progressively swung at fewer pitches as they moved away from the strike zone’s heart. Now, he is swinging at more high pitches, especially those out of the strike zone. Perhaps this is an attempt to generate more power, but the top of the zone is not where his strengths lie.

Perhaps related to his more aggressive approach, Bruce has also undergone an alteration in his batted ball profile. Previously a heavy fly ball batter, the lefty has instead been generating more grounders since the trade. Instead of putting the ball into the air where it is more likely to find the bleachers, he has been slapping it into the infield grass.

This is pure speculation, but it seems as if Jay Bruce may have found new stress in the trade. Instead of continuing to do his thing, he may have either been rattled by the change of teams or he may be trying too hard to live up to the trade. That could explain why he is swinging at more pitches, and the mental distractions could explain why he is not squaring the ball up as well as before.

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At the end of the day, it does not matter what is causing Jay Bruce’s struggles so long as they go away. The good news is that he is probably not hurt. The bad news is that he looks like he might be a little too antsy in the batter’s box. Mental blocks can be some of the most difficult obstacles to overcome; but if Jay Bruce wants to be productive down the stretch and land a sizable contract in free agency, they must be overcome.