San Francisco Giants offense struggling in second half
The San Francisco Giants are reeling in the second half, which is due to the offense constantly finding itself in high leverage situations.
Let’s start with Saturday’s loss to the Atlanta Braves. In the bottom of the third inning with the bases empty and one out, San Francisco Giants pitcher Albert Suarez doubled and then moved to third base on a wild pitch. Denard Span and Angel Pagan grounded out to end the inning and stranded Suarez. The Giants were unable to pad their 1-0 lead.
In the sixth inning, with the Braves now leading 3-1, Span singled without and moved to second on a wild pitch. Pagan grounded out and Joe Panik flew out to end the inning.
In the bottom of the seventh, shortstop Brandon Crawford doubled to lead off the inning but was stranded after a line out, a groundout and a strikeout. In the eighth inning, Span doubled with two outs, and after Pagan walked, a Panik groundout ended the scoring threat. The only run the Giants scored came on a home run by Crawford.
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The Giants held an eight-game lead in the National League West near the end of June but have gone 13-26 since the All-Star break, including 9-15 in August.
The thing is, Giants players, especially the offense, is in high leverage situations a lot. In Baseball-Reference’s average leverage index, which measures the significance and pressure of a particular situation a player experiences based on several factors, five Giants are in the top 10 and four are in the top five. Crawford leads the majors with a 1.16 average and Panik is tied for second at 1.12 (1.0 is average). Rounding out the stressed out Giants are Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey (tied for fourth) at 1.11 and Brandon Belt at 1.09 (ninth).
That’s a lot of high leverage situations for one team to handle. The Giants have played 43 one-run games this season, tied for third most in the league, and 15 extra inning games. Overall the Giants have done well, winning 24 one-run games, nine of those in extras, but if a team is going to put itself in such stressful situations on a regular basis, losses are going to happen.
All that stress is starting to show. The Giants’ .306 weighted on-base average in the second half is 23rd in the majors; they hit .320 in the first half, which was 15th. Belt, Hunter Pence, Crawford and Panik have all seen their wOBAs drop by at least 20 points in the second half. As team, the Giants are worst in the majors in win probability added in the second half.
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It is an even-numbered year and the pitching staff has been steady, so the Giants could easily right the ship and chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers. If manager Bruce Bochy can work his magic and get his hitters to start executing in crunch time, the Giants’ rough two months could be forgotten. But the drain of pressure packed at-bats might be the team’s undoing.