MLB: Top Five AL MVP Candidates For September
3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Fangraphs WAR: 5.9
Baseball-Reference WAR: 6.2
Combined WAR: 6.1
WPA: 2.4
571 PA, 92 R, 32 HR, 83 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.356/.560, 138 wRC+
Manny Machado is having a terrific season, but I have him a tier below the rest of the top five contenders for the AL MVP award heading into the final month of the season.
At 23-years-old, Machado is building on his big leap forward in 2015. He should surpass last year’s career highs in hits, runs, home runs, and RBI. The one thing he isn’t doing this year is steal bases. After stealing 20 bases last season, Machado doesn’t have a stolen base yet this year. Of course, the Baltimore Orioles as a team have stolen just 15 bases, half as many as the team above them on the list (the St. Louis Cardinals). The Orioles are on pace for 18 steals this season, which would be more steals than just six teams in baseball history going back to 1901.
They just don’t run.
Manny Machado displayed his flexibility and value to the Orioles earlier this year when he filled in at shortstop for an injured J.J. Hardy. His 45 games at shortstop were rated above-average by both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. There aren’t many top-tier players who could switch mid-year to the toughest position on the diamond (other than catcher) for one-fourth of the season and play it at the level that Manny Machado did. He’s been great this year, just not quite at the level of the next four players.
As mentioned above, I have Machado a tier below the other four players on this list, but I believe he is a tier above the other contenders in the AL. There are a number of players on the fringes of the AL MVP award who have been worth between 5.0 and 5.5 WAR (using a combination of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). These players include Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Adam Eaton, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Correa, along with pitchers Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels, and Corey Kluber. For fans of WPA, relievers Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are in the conversation for down ballot consideration.
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