MLB: Top Five AL MVP Candidates For September

With one month left in the MLB regular season, these are the top five contenders for the AL MVP award.

The MVP award is often the most debated award handed out at the end of the MLB season. Everyone seems to have his or her own personal definition of “valuable.” For some people, the most valuable player in the league is simply the best player. Who would be your top pick if you could choose any player in the league? For others, the most valuable player must make an impact on the pennant race, so this player must come from a competitive team. Sorry about that, good player on a losing team, you aren’t as valuable because your teammates are worse.

The official MVP ballot that is presented to BBWAA voters says, “There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.”

For me, this is simple. The Most Valuable Player is the best player. The instructions explicitly state that “the MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier”, so any writer who is compelled to put a player from a playoff team higher on the ballot than a player from a non-playoff team is doing so despite the instructions saying this does not need to be a criteria.

It’s often been said that “MVP candidate’s team could have finished last without him, so how valuable could he have been?” A counter to this would be a very good player on a great team, like Kris Bryant on the Cubs. The Cubs are 15 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Take Bryant off the Cubs and they still win their division easily, so how much difference did Bryant make? I don’t buy into this logic. I believe the best player is the most valuable player.

With this in mind, I present my top five players in contention for the AL MVP award. I’m using a combination of Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Baseball-Reference WAR to get a general idea of the top players, then I consider Win Probability Added (WPA) to distinguish among the best players in the league if they are close in overall value. Win Probability Added “captures the change in win expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased the team’s odds of winning.” (definition from Fangraphs glossary)

Next: From Baltimore...

3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Fangraphs WAR: 5.9

Baseball-Reference WAR: 6.2

Combined WAR: 6.1

WPA: 2.4

571 PA, 92 R, 32 HR, 83 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.356/.560, 138 wRC+

Manny Machado is having a terrific season, but I have him a tier below the rest of the top five contenders for the AL MVP award heading into the final month of the season.

At 23-years-old, Machado is building on his big leap forward in 2015. He should surpass last year’s career highs in hits, runs, home runs, and RBI. The one thing he isn’t doing this year is steal bases. After stealing 20 bases last season, Machado doesn’t have a stolen base yet this year. Of course, the Baltimore Orioles as a team have stolen just 15 bases, half as many as the team above them on the list (the St. Louis Cardinals). The Orioles are on pace for 18 steals this season, which would be more steals than just six teams in baseball history going back to 1901.
They just don’t run.

Manny Machado displayed his flexibility and value to the Orioles earlier this year when he filled in at shortstop for an injured J.J. Hardy. His 45 games at shortstop were rated above-average by both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. There aren’t many top-tier players who could switch mid-year to the toughest position on the diamond (other than catcher) for one-fourth of the season and play it at the level that Manny Machado did. He’s been great this year, just not quite at the level of the next four players.

As mentioned above, I have Machado a tier below the other four players on this list, but I believe he is a tier above the other contenders in the AL. There are a number of players on the fringes of the AL MVP award who have been worth between 5.0 and 5.5 WAR (using a combination of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). These players include Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Adam Eaton, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Correa, along with pitchers Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels, and Corey Kluber. For fans of WPA, relievers Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are in the conversation for down ballot consideration.

Next: From Houston...

2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

Fangraphs WAR: 6.7

Baseball-Reference WAR: 7.2

Combined WAR: 7.0

WPA: 2.9

592 PA, 94 R, 22 HR, 89 RBI, 26 SB, .351/.411/.567, 162 wRC+

Currently, there is only one player in the American League who is in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That player is Jose Altuve. He’s first in average, second in on-base percentage, and third in slugging percentage. He’s also second in the league in stolen bases. He could easily move up on this list of MVP candidates before the season is over.

Altuve has been consistently good all year long, but especially good in the second half. He’s hit .371/.406/.617 since the All-Star break, with a 176 wRC+ that is second to only one player in the American League (who is still to come on this list). Altuve has also done a great job of adding power to his repertoire, already blowing past last year’s career high of 15 home runs. He’s hit 17 of his 22 home runs to left field, but he’s not a product of Minute Maid Park. He’s been a better hitter overall on the road, where he is currently sporting a .411/.472/.625 batting line.

One area where Altuve has struggled a bit is baserunning. He’s stealing bases at a good clip (26 of 33, 79%), but his aggressiveness on the basepaths has cost the team. Then there’s this botched attempt at a triple that would have allowed Altuve to hit for the cycle on June 25.

Still, that’s quibbling. Altuve has had an amazing season and is on the same tier as the next player on this list.

Next: Number Three

3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

Fangraphs WAR: 7.0

Baseball-Reference WAR: 6.8

Combined WAR: 6.9

WPA: 4.7

582 PA, 106 R, 34 HR, 92 RBI, 6 SB, .296/.407/.579, 162 wRC+

Donaldson and Altuve are very close in my mind. The difference comes down to Donaldson’s edge in Win Probability Added, where he is second in the AL. Donaldson has two games this year in which his WPA was greater than .500. On May 27, he was 4 for 5 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in a 7-5 win over the Red Sox. In this game, he hit a two-run home run that broke a 5-5 tie in the bottom of the eighth.

On August 28^th, Donaldson had a three-homer game in a 9-6 victory over the Twins. One of those home runs was a two-run shot that turned a 4-5 deficit into a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

If the top guy on my list is not named AL MVP, I expect Donaldson to win his second trophy in a row. He’s on pace to come very close to replicating his WAR from last year even if he doesn’t get to the same 41 HR/123 RBI level that helped him win the MVP in 2015. He has a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage this year. Also, Donaldson’s Blue Jays are looking very good for a playoff spot at the moment, which will be a factor for some voters.

Next: From Boston....

RF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Fangraphs WAR: 6.7

Baseball-Reference WAR: 7.8

Combined WAR: 7.3

WPA: 2.1

604 PA, 103 R, 30 HR, 96 RBI, 21 SB, .320/.361/.564, 141 wRC+

Mookie Betts is having such a good year, he’s overshadowed the age-defying final season of 40-year-old David Ortiz. In the past, it’s likely that David Ortiz would be a prominent MVP candidate, but when people talk MVP candidates on the Red Sox, it’s Mookie Betts who is most often mentioned. This, despite David Ortiz having 31 homers and 102 RBI.

Betts has been a terrific hitter, but he shoots right past Ortiz in overall value thanks to his impressive combination of hitting, fielding, and baserunning. He’s already set career highs in hits, runs, home runs, and RBI, and tied his career high of 21 steals set last year. He’s also had two three-homer games, including this huge game in a blowout of the Diamondbacks.

Betts was very good in the first half when he hit .304/.344/.525. He’s been even better in the second half, hitting .356/.398/.649 since the all-star break. Based on Fangraphs WAR, Betts has been the best player in the American League in the second half. The amazing thing is that he’s just 23 years old, so he still has room to grow. In just two full seasons and 52 games in his rookie year, Betts had accumulated 13.3 fWAR, ranking him third all-time for Red Sox players 23-years-old or younger. Only Ted Williams and Tris Speaker are above him.

Next: From Los Angeles...