MLB: Top 5 NL MVP Candidates For September
With the MLB season winding down, the top five candidates for NL MVP have separated themselves from the field. Who has the best shot to win the award?
As we near the end of the season, the favorites to win postseason awards have separated themselves from the rest. Such is the case in the race for the National League MVP. The race is by no means over, nor will it be an unanimous decision; however, there seems to be a clear consensus on the top five players bound to get votes.
Last year’s MVP, Bryce Harper, has removed himself from the discussion completely with his down year. Not only did Harper descend from his incredible 2015 season, he fell to being a barely above average hitter with his 122 wRC+. With his departure from the top, he’s left a huge opening in the MVP race.
Not only has Harper fallen from his tremendous season, but the other top vote-getters outside of Anthony Rizzo have as well. The other top vote getters in the 2015 NL MVP vote were Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Andrew McCutchen. None of those three have put up numbers similar to what they did in 2015, which essentially dropped them from any MVP talks during this season.
What we’re left with is a group of very young, very talented players at the top of the National League. Outside of Daniel Murphy, every player on this list is in his 20’s. Three of the five are 25-years-old or younger. Not only has 2016 been a great season for talent in the National League, but the age of these top players seems to suggest that we will see multiple similar seasons in the future.
The top five have pretty clearly separated themselves from the competition, but there are still some players that could fight their way onto ballots.
Brandon Crawford is a great example. His incredible value in the field at a premier position combined with his ability at the plate is bound to draw some interest from voters. He’s definitely been a huge part of what has made the Giants successful this season, but he doesn’t quite make the list of top 5. His teammate, Buster Posey, also has a good case to be included on the list because of how well he’s handled the pitching staff; however, his batting statistics don’t quite compete with the guys on this list.
Next: Rocky Mountain MVP
Nolan Arenado has been recognized as one of the best young players in Major League Baseball for a couple years now, but he’s never really been considered a true MVP candidate. His 2016 season has changed that. He’s risen to an MVP-caliber player during the 2016 season, but unfortunately other young studs in the league have done the same.
Arenado is most well-known for the dazzling plays he makes in the field. Great defensive players make difficult plays. The best defensive players make the easy plays with great efficiency. Arenado does both at third base.
His abilities with the glove are lauded around the league, but his ability at the plate is just as good. This season he’s hitting .294/.365/.583 with 36 home runs and a wRC+ of 128. A lot is made of the effect that Coors Field has on home run hitters, but 15 of Arenado’s 36 home runs have been hit away from Coors Field.
He’s been a very good player at the plate this season, being the most valuable player on a Rockies roster that includes players like Carlos Gonzalez and the sneakily very good Charlie Blackmon.
The Rockies are still hanging around the playoff picture, but likely won’t make it to the playoffs. That doesn’t mean, however, that Arenado shouldn’t be considered for the MVP award. He’s shown tremendous value to his team, both in the field and at the plate. According to fWAR, Arenado ranks 5th in the National League with 4.6. If Baseball-Reference’s WAR is more to your liking, Arenado ranks 3rd in the NL with 5.3. If you don’t like either of those metrics and would rather use Baseball Prospectus’ WARP, Arenado ranks 3rd there as well with 6.69. Long story short, no matter the different formula Arenado has been among the best players in the National League this season.
There’s a valid argument to be made that Nolan Arenado belongs even higher on this list. However, the players above him have truly put themselves a cut above the field. He’s done enough to put himself in the conversation, but he’s still got room to improve during what should be a long career ahead.
Next: Part 1 of an Unstoppable Tandem
4. Anthony Rizzo
The Chicago Cubs have been by far the best team in baseball all year long. They have been such a great team because of many talented players throughout the lineup. The team as a whole has been the reason behind their triumphant season, but two players in particular have fueled their strong run. The first player is first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
Rizzo, like Arenado and all the others on this list, has a great reputation defensively. He’s helped out by being surrounded by the best defensive infield in all of baseball, but he has looked very good at the cool corner this season.
What Rizzo is best known for is his power left handed bat in the middle of the Cubs’ powerful lineup. Rizzo is hitting .292/.388/.545 with 26 home runs and a wRC+ of 146. He has provided power in the middle of the lineup, and driven in a large amount of runs. Not only that, but he also excels at plate vision. He has walked 11.4 percent of the time, while only striking out 15.6 percent. His ability to hit for power while shying away from high strikeout numbers makes him incredibly valuable.
Not only does Rizzo have his 2016 season on his side, but he’s the only top 5 MVP candidate from last season putting up similar numbers. Season to season statistics shouldn’t, and most likely don’t, play into how voters decide who is deserving of the award, but it doesn’t hurt that Rizzo has been so consistent. Being possibly the only player on this list considered a veteran, outside of maybe Daniel Murphy, could give him an edge over the field in the minds of some voters.
Not only is Rizzo more experienced, but he’s been this consistently good since he started playing for the Cubs. In all three seasons since 2014, Rizzo has posted a wRC+ over 145. Now he’s providing that strong offensive contribution to a very good team. That’s a recipe for MVP vote-getting success.
Next: The Batting Average Champ
3. Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy started getting attention during the 2015 postseason when he suddenly started hitting like a maniac, helping the New York Mets reach the World Series. When he hit free agency following the Mets’ loss in the World Series to the Royals, many thought he was bound for regression when the 2016 season started. The Nationals decided that he was worth a three-year deal averaging $12.5 million taking him from their division rival.
Murphy not only didn’t regress, he got arguably even better. This season he’s hitting .341/.385/.598 with 25 home runs and a 155 wRC+. His average of .341 is second best in the league, behind only DJ LeMahieu of the Rockies. The lack of separation between his OBP and average shows that he hasn’t walked a whole lot (6.1 percent BB rate), but a .385 on-base percentage is still very good.
With teammate Bryce Harper having a very disappointing season, Murphy has been the player to step up and lead the Nationals offense. He’s been helped out by Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon along with the recent addition of Trea Turner, but the motor that has kept the Nationals offense going has been Daniel Murphy.
Perhaps the most exciting thing about Daniel Murphy’s 2016 season has been the increase in power in his bat. Before this season, Murphy’s highest ISO in Major League Baseball was .168 in the 2015 season. This year, he is sitting at .257, which is top ten in the National League. His OPS has also risen from .771 in 2015 to .983 this season.
Murphy hasn’t been stagnant in the field due to injuries around the Nationals infield, but he has shown some good versatility because of it. While Anthony Rendon was out with an injury, Murphy took over at third base and was passable there. When Rendon returned, the young Trea Turner was in his place at second base, so Murphy headed over to first base where he’s been good as well. Perhaps lack of consistency defensively will push voters away, but regardless of what he’s done on defense his offensive acumen is plenty good enough to finish top three in MVP voting.
Next: The Rookie
2. Corey Seager
Since June, Corey Seager has been one of the best players in Major League Baseball. As time has gone on, the talk about Seager has gone from possible Rookie of the Year winner to definite Rookie of the Year winner to serious MVP candidate. Aside from the first month or so of the season, Seager has been very good. If we can assume that the beginning of the season was just a slight adjustment period for the rookie that only played in 27 games in 2015, Seager’s 2016 season looks very good.
Even when you put it all together, Seager’s line is incredible. He’s hitting .312/.373/.528 on the season with 23 home runs and 37 doubles. His subsequent wRC+ is 143. He’s been getting on base, hitting the ball, and hitting the ball very hard. His 63 extra base hits ranks 6th in the National League and first among all rookies. Every player ahead of him on the extra base hit rankings, aside from Freddie Freeman, is on this top five MVP list.
Not only has Seager excelled at the plate in his first (almost) full season, but he’s done it while playing at a premier position. We must be wary of placing too much value on where Seager has played, but he has certainly added more value to his team because of his ability to play shortstop, and play it well.
It’s unclear whether Seager’s status as a rookie will play any part in the number of votes he does or does not receive. Only two Major League players have ever won the MVP during their rookie season. Seager is having a better season in comparison to his competition than either of those players did in their rookie seasons, but he may not have the flash that Ichiro had entering the league. If voters simply sit down and look at the numbers and how Seager has contributed to the Dodgers’ success, he is a clear MVP candidate. In fact, he has numbers that could have made him the favorite if not for Kris Bryant doing unreal things this season.
Next: The Better Half of Bryzzo
1. Kris Bryant
If there were doubts in the first half of the season about who the MVP would be in the National League, there certainly aren’t any now after the second half Kris Bryant has had. In the first half of the season, Bryant posted a very good .286/.384/.578 slash line with a 153 wRC+. In the second half of the season (a little over a month now and 207 PAs), Bryant is hitting .341/.435/.602 with a wRC+ of 175.
Kris Bryant was probably the MVP favorite in the first half. Although Daniel Murphy and others were making strong cases, Bryant’s power was on display, especially right before the All-Star break. His second-half performance has simply put him over the top. Now on the season, Bryant is hitting .305/.402/.586 with 36 home runs and a 161 wRC+.
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In 2015, Bryant spent a majority of his time defensively at third base. This season has been a bit different for Bryant defensively. He’s played six different positions for at least one inning at each spot. However, the majority of his time has been spent at third base and left field. In both positions, Bryant has excelled. His versatility has been valuable to the Cubs, who thrive off of using their depth, namely Javier Baez, in a super utility role.
Because of his abilities both defensively and offensively, Bryant leads all of Major League Baseball in fWAR with 7.8. Bryant also tops the National League in Baseball-Reference WAR with 7.0, and he is top in all of baseball in WARP at 8.52. WAR stats are not super reliable, but his success according to all three formulas over the competition shows just how dominant Bryant has been this season.
Next: Is Kris Bryant the Best Hitter in Baseball?
What Bryant’s done this season doesn’t quite match what his buddy Bryce Harper did last season, but he’s been by far the best player this season in the National League. Bryant has provided the Cubs with incredible value with his improved plate approach and outstanding defense. He has been the Most Valuable Player by every definition of the term, and it doesn’t look like anybody is going to come along in September and take it from him.