After a tumultuous first few months, Boston Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz has quietly turned it around since the start of August. He could play a key role as the team fights for the division crown.
The Boston Red Sox gained sole possession of first place in the American League East last night, thanks to a win over the Padres and the Yankees finishing off a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays. With 23 games to go in the regular season, the Sox will hope to fend off the competition and remain on top in an tightening division. (The Yanks are now only 2.5 games behind, believe it or not.)
The Red Sox will look for any kind of edge or “x-factor” to help them down the stretch, and they might have one in the form of one of the most frustrating players in the team’s recent history. Right-hander Clay Buchholz has had an up-and-down year in 2016, which for the most part characterizes his 10-year career in Boston as a whole. Fortunately for the Sox, he seems to be trending upward at precisely the right time.
Buchholz tossed 6.2 innings against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday night, allowing one run on eight hits while striking out six. He didn’t issue a walk on the evening in securing his sixth win of the campaign. This kind of performance is becoming more common for Buchholz of late, which is a major positive development for the Red Sox considering his very ugly start to the season.
Through his first 10 outings, Buchholz pitched to an unseemly 6.35 ERA. At that point, it was a rather easy choice to move him into the bullpen in late May. There he continued to struggle into and past the All-Star break, causing many to wonder if he would ever find his form this year.
To Boston’s relief, things began to fall into place for Buchholz as the calendar flipped to August. Since the beginning of that month, the righty has maintained a 2.51 ERA, allowing eight earned runs on 26 hits and seven walks in 28.2 innings. He has also struck out 21 in that span. Buchholz’s improving results convinced the Sox to give him another go in the rotation, his most recent transition back into a starting role coming on the heels of an injury to knuckleballer Steven Wright.
In his last three starts dating back to August 18, Buchholz has managed a 1.42 ERA, allowing three runs on 19 hits and two walks with 18 strikeouts in 19 frames. In a rotation that has been in flux for much of the year, Buchholz going on a run would be a pleasant late-season surprise for the BoSox.
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But is Buchholz’s recent success sustainable? That question has probably been asked at least once in every season of his career. The Red Sox and their fans have clung to the hope that he would be the kind of pitcher he was in 2010 when he won 17 games to the tune of a 2.33 ERA. Injuries and inconsistency have thwarted him since then, but he showed flashes of that dominance in 2013 when he posted a 1.74 ERA over 16 starts. Last year he put up a 3.26 ERA across 18 outings, prompting Boston to pick up his $13 million option for this season.
His latest bout of effectiveness is due in large part to his recent ability to limit home runs. Prior to August 1, he was allowing 1.73 HR/9 and a 13.7 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio. Since August 1, he has allowed 0.63 HR/9 and a 7.7 percent HR/FB. He’s getting a lot more outs on the ground, maintaining a 50 percent groundball rate since 8/1, compared to a 39.9 percent rate before it.
While his K/9 rate hasn’t shifted too drastically (5.79 to 6.59), he’s walking noticeably fewer batters (3.86 BB/9 to 2.20 BB/9). He has also benefited from a 83.9 percent left-on-base rate since the start of August, up from 62.7 percent previously.
Some of these metrics should regress toward the mean over time. Buchholz’s career HR/FB, for instance, is just under 10 percent. His lifetime left-on-base rate is a decidedly average 71.3 percent. His career groundball rate is 48 percent, however, so if he can keep the ball on the ground more often than he was earlier in the year, it should be a definite boost. All things considered, the numbers suggest that while Buchholz might not remain this good, he might not go back to being as bad as he was before either.
If there’s one thing fans have come to learn with Clay Buchholz, it’s that you never quite know which version of him you’re going to get. The Red Sox will just have to cross their fingers that this latest edition lasts through at least October. The ability to pitch out of the rotation or bullpen as needed could be particularly useful in a postseason environment, so Buchholz’s whirlwind campaign could actually benefit the team at the time of year when it counts most.
All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.