Toronto Blue Jays: Who Should They Re-Sign This Offseason?

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It will be an interesting offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays. The 2015 AL East champs have multiple key players looking to get paid this winter, but which ones should the team look to bring back?

We are in the final stretch of the regular season and the postseason is fast approaching. However, clubs are already preparing for how they will attack this offseason. Most winters, general managers have to make tough decisions and this one will be especially hard on Toronto Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro.

Toronto’s front office is going to have one of the more challenging situations with three of their core players’ contracts expiring after this season. Toronto’s designated hitter/first baseman, Edwin Encarnacion, and outfielders Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders are all going to be looking for large sums of money this winter. Even though the Blue Jays would probably like to keep all three of their sluggers, it’s just an impossibility with the money that will be thrown at them in the coming months.

David Price bolted for the Boston Red Sox last offseason after the Jays did not offer enough money to bring back the dominant left-hander. This will create a lot of pressure on Toronto to bring at least one of their key soon-to-be free agents back. But what would be the wisest investment?

We’ll look at what the team’s plan should be this offseason because while the Blue Jays remain right in the thick of the playoff race, free agency will be here before we know it.

Next: Bullpen Pieces

LHP Brett Cecil and RHP Joaquin Benoit

Outside of the club’s big three free agents, there are still some relief pitchers whose deals are expiring at the end of the season. While they may not be as impactful to the team as the likes of Bautista, Saunders and Encarnacion, they still have a big role to play if the Jays will repeat as AL East champions. Joaquin Benoit and Brett Cecil have appeared in critical situations at points this season, and Toronto will have decisions to make on whether they are a good fit for the club in 2017.

Benoit was acquired in a one-for-one swap that sent Drew Storen to the Seattle Mariners. At the time, both pitchers were not meeting expectations and both sides hoped that a change of scenery would give them a fresh start. Unlike Storen, who has continued to struggle in his new uniform, Benoit has not allowed a run in his 17 appearances with the Jays.

While the righty turned 39 years old in July, he has remained effective because his stuff still plays at the major league level. He’s still walking batters at a high clip as a Blue Jay, allowing close to four bases on balls per nine innings. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, those walks didn’t turn into runs, but the team has to have some level of concern. Nonetheless, the veteran reliever has done exactly what the team hoped for when they acquired him.

On the other end of the spectrum, left-hander Brett Cecil has not performed as well out of the pen in 2016. The 30-year-old has been with the Blue Jays organization for his entire career and has been a weapon for the club during his tenure. After pitching to an ERA of under 2.75 the last two years, the lefty has been a liability this season. With an ERA in the mid-4.00s, Toronto probably expected more from one of their better relievers over the past few years.

On a positive note, his K/9 rate of 10.4 is still high, and his FIP of 3.87 shows that he has been a little bit better than his ERA indicates. Still, Cecil must perform better down the stretch of he hopes to cash in to his potential this winter.

Both relief pitchers have had moments where they’ve shined in Toronto. If Benoit wants to come back for another year, the Blue Jays would be wise to give him a long look as his deal will probably not be that lucrative. Something around $4-5 million for one year might do it. Cecil will probably get a multi-year deal as teams will point to his past success. However, Toronto should not be that team. Productive relievers can be found for cheaper, and with bigger fish to fry, the team needs to save money where it can.

Verdict: Try to keep Benoit if he continues his career, let Cecil walk

Next: The Knuckleballer

RHP R.A. Dickey

Clearly R.A. Dickey’s career is on its final legs. At 41 years of age, the veteran hurler has held off father time because of his ability to throw a knuckleball, which historically puts less strain on one’s arm over the course of a long career. Heck, Tim Wakefield pitched until he was 45. But like the former Red Sox pitcher, Dickey has seen decline as he’s gotten older.

Since his breakout season with the New York Mets in 2012, Dickey has finished with an ERA of under 3.90 just one time. This year has been his worst yet, as he currently has produced a 4.60 earned run average and is walking hitters at a career-high rate. He’s not getting as many swings and misses as well, which is concerning for knuckleball pitcher in particular.

Adding up all of these factors, signing Dickey is not something Toronto should consider regardless of the price. With a lack of pitching on the market this offseason, it could lead a desperate team to sign him for much more than he’s worth. The Blue Jays are loaded with good pitchers like Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. Marcus Stroman also has too good of stuff to not bounce back in 2017. Dickey had some really good seasons late in his career, but it looks like if he doesn’t retire, he should not expect the Blue Jays to be interested in bringing him back into the fold.

Verdict: Let him walk (or retire)

Next: Captain Canada

OF Michael Saunders

Now onto some of the bigger decisions that the Blue Jays will wrestle with this offseason. First, we will look at a player who many didn’t expect would cash in come his time to explore free agency. Michael Saunders clearly had different plans, as the 29-year-old outfielder has had the best season of his career.

After getting the starting nod in left field when Ben Revere was traded to Washington, Saunders was not expected to be a middle of the order hitter. However, after getting off to a scorching start, Saunders became one of the more reliable options in an already deadly Blue Jays lineup. With Jose Bautista missing extend time due to an injury, Saunders picked up the slack for a while. His overall numbers don’t look as outstanding now because he’s been in a little bit of a slump. His average has dropped to .266 after spending much of the summer in the .300s. Recently, Melvin Upton Jr. has taken away playing time in left field, shifting Saunders to the DH spot with Encarnacion moving to first base.

Jon Heyman recently wrote that the Blue Jays don’t expect that they will have the financial flexibility to sign Saunders. Even with his recent struggles, this would be a big loss. He seems to have found his stroke this season, launching a career-high 23 bombs thus far. Outfield is the only really loaded position in this weak free agent class, and an offense-needy ball club may shell out greater money than expected.

While it would be sad to see a Canadian depart from his homeland, Saunders will be overpaid on the free agent market, just as every player is. If he was the only big free agent in Toronto, that might change things. But at this point, Upton is signed through next season and it wouldn’t be smart to overspend on a position of strength.

Verdict: Let him walk regardless of other free agent decisions

Next: Joey Bats

OF Jose Bautista

What a downright dreadful season the face of the Blue Jays has had. Fans of the team are used to seeing Joey Bats crushing balls over the fence. Instead, he’s spent a lot of time on the disabled list, while also struggling when he is on the field. In 94 games, Bautista is hitting just .229 and has only 17 home runs. He’s on track for his lowest long ball total since his first season with the Blue Jays in 2009.

At 35 years old, Bautista may not ever again be the player he’s been for Toronto the past six years. However, does this mean that the team should not make a large financial investment in him? While his batting average is low, his on-base percentage is over 100 points higher, which shows that he still has the ability to draw walks at a high rate. Bautista also broke out later in his career. So he could be on a different projection than many players who are playing at a high level in their mid 20s. But still, there has to be concern with whether Bautista’s best days are behind him.

It’s never really a wise move to spend on what a player has done rather than what they will do. It’s unfortunate when a team like the Phillies have to deal with Ryan Howard‘s contract well past the point that they should have. Injuries are usually a sign that a player’s body is wearing down. This doesn’t mean that Bautista shouldn’t be signed to a shorter term contract.

If he had another great season in 2016, the slugger would have had a case for getting a four-year deal. With his rough season, though, clubs will probably not be offering him those few extra years. A three-year deal could be an option depending on what happens with Encarnacion, but bringing Bautista back is far from a foregone conclusion. Fans shouldn’t expect all his power to disappear overnight, but this year has raised some concerns about his ability to produce consistently as he gets longer in the tooth.

Verdict: Offer two years, but could be willing to go to three if Encarnacion departs

Next: Designated Slugger

DH/1B Edwin Encarnacion

One might have thought that Jose Bautista was the team’s biggest free agent before the season. However, he has clearly been surpassed by the Blue Jays’ other great power hitter, Edwin Encarnacion.

Like Bautista, Encarnacion started to reach his stride a little later in his major league career. The power hitter caught on with Toronto in 2009, but didn’t start to become the threat he is now until 2012. He’s hit 30+ home runs in each of the past five seasons and has never hit for below a .265 batting average during that stretch. Encarnacion has been one of the most consistent power threats in the game today and he will get the money that comes with that distinction.

Encarnacion is also two years younger, which contributes to him having more earning power than Bautista. While that may not seem like a big difference, when you’re discussing the length of a contract, it should most certainly be on every front office’s mind. He is probably too old (34 in January) to land a five-year deal. A four-year contract seems like a certainty at this point.

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This is the free agent that the Blue Jays should make priority number one because of his consistency and overall lack of risk. The Blue Jays can’t afford to let all these highly priced free agents walk, and while the team does have a nice young core, the Blue Jays’ success has been built on power and good starting pitching. Losing all three of their big bats would be a huge blow for an organization that has suffered losing season after losing season. Toronto is built to win now and bringing back Encarnacion would be a huge step in the right direction to keep the club on the right track.

Of course, a five-year commitment would be a bit much. But a four-year contract similar to that of Nelson Cruz would be a reasonable starting point to a new deal. There will be a lot of competition for him and some big numbers could get thrown around. If that’s the case, the Blue Jays may have no choice but to move on.

Verdict: Top priority, no five-year contract

Next: Can Michael Saunders Reverse Slump?

What do you think about the Blue Jays’ free agent class? Let us know in the comment section below.

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