Baltimore Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo is on pace to be one of just eight players in history to hit 40 or more home runs and be a below-average player.
At first glance, it would appear that Mark Trumbo was one of the best trade acquisitions last offseason. The Baltimore Orioles traded reliever C.J. Riefenhauser and catcher Steve Clevenger for Trumbo. Riefenhsauser has a 4.71 ERA in the minor leagues this year and Clevenger had 76 unproductive plate appearances for the Mariners before his season ended with an injury. Meanwhile, Trumbo is leading all of baseball with 41 home runs. There’s no doubt that it was a good trade for Baltimore, but there are other aspects of Trumbo’s game to consider beyond the dingers.
A closer look reveals that Trumbo, despite all those home runs, has been a below-average player. Two Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the value of the average MLB player. Trumbo’s Fangraphs WAR is 1.5 and Baseball-Reference has him at 1.3 WAR.
Trumbo’s power has been legit. He has a career-high 41 long balls. Unfortunately, his value is dragged way down by his below-average on-base percentage, his sub-par base running and his brutal defense in right field. Trumbo has not been the worst defensive right fielder in baseball, but he’s in the conversation with the limited-range, lead-gloved Jose Bautista, Yasmany Tomas and Matt Kemp.
In the history of baseball, there have been 323 times a player has hit 40 or more home runs. Trumbo is projected to hit 4 more home runs and add 0.2 to his WAR total by the Fangraphs Depth Charts. This would leave him with 45 homers and 1.7 WAR. If he were to accomplish this, he would surprisingly NOT have the lowest WAR total for a player who hit at least 45 home runs in a season. That would be 1998 Jose Canseco, who hit 46 bombs but finished with 1.3 WAR.
What Mark Trumbo is likely to accomplish this year is not unprecedented, but it’s very unusual. Hitting a home run is the best thing you can do at the dish. Trumbo has done this 41 times so far this year, and counting. And yet it hasn’t been enough to make him a league average player. If he finishes below 2.0 WAR, he’ll join the following select group of players.
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