MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

With the offseason approaching in less than two months, and all teams’ rosters mostly settled for the year,it’s a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team. We continue the series with the Milwaukee Brewers.

It has been a trying season for the Milwaukee Brewers as they are in the second year of their official rebuild. They sold some Major League talent at the trade deadline to accelerate the rebuild, but also kept a few pieces. At 68-84, the Brewers are possibly on their way to another 90+ loss season. On the plus side, they have already tied their win total from last season with 68.

Milwaukee peaked in 2011, making it to the NLCS before falling to the division rival Cardinals in six games. Every since, the team has undergone an erratic decline, as they were able to have a winning record in 2012 and 2014 before deciding to shake it up.

Last season, Milwaukee’s starting pitchers struggled to a 4.79 ERA and ERA- of 106 (park and year adjusted ERA, 100 is league average), good for 28th in the MLB. After selling high on Mike Fiers last season, and cutting Kyle Lohse after 2015, it was time to see what the Brewers young pitchers could accomplish. Thus far, they have markedly improved and are now 17th in the MLB with a 4.40 ERA as well as an ERA- of 96.

Though the pitching has improved, the team’s hitting has remained below average. In 2015, the Brewers ranked 22nd in runs scored with 655. They also had a wRC+ (Wins Runs Created +, park and year adjusted, 100 is league average) of 86, 28th in the MLB. This season, they rank a worse 24th with 632 runs so far, but are better in terms of wRC+, ranking 24th as well with a 91.

Due to the lack of offense, the Brewers did well to sell high on catcher Jonathan Lucroy and reliever Jeremy Jeffress. They were able to acquire outfield prospects Lewis Brinson and Ryan Cordell, as well as right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz from the Rangers. They were also able to acquire a catcher, one of the team’s biggest needs, in the form of prospect Andrew Susac when they traded reliever Will Smith to the Giants.

Now, only Ryan Braun and Matt Garza are left as veterans who are under contract. The team’s front office has done a great job to avoid bad contracts during the rebuild and now are equipped with payroll versatility. Most all of the team’s 40-man roster has less than three years of MLB experience, making them available for cheap control for at least a couple more seasons.

Still, there a few pending free agents, as well as players under long-term contracts, and more entering years of arbitration. Let’s start by taking a look at the free agent decisions GM David Stearns will be making this offseason.

Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted

Under Contract

***Lohse no longer with team but still being paid

Only two players under contract currently for the Brewers, and only one under contract beyond 2017. That player is superstar, former MVP Ryan Braun, but we’ll get to him later. The other is experienced starting pitcher Matt Garza.

Still only 32, Garza has seen a rapid decline since coming to Milwaukee. In his first season with the Brew Crew in 2014, he had a solid 3.64 ERA. Then, in 2015, it exploded to 5.63. This season his production has been between that of his first two years, as he has pitched to a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts. This is certainly not the production the team imagined when they signed Garza to a four year, $50 million contract.

Without much trade interest in a declining pitcher with a fat salary, Garza seems to be stuck on the Brewers. He could be cut, but the team would have to pay him anyway. He has not been terrible this season, so he should make the team in 2017. There have been reports that he has a vesting option in 2018, and that should vest if he pitches at least 115 innings in 2017, or totals 110 games during his four year deal. Milwaukee will be able to avoid paying him in 2018 if he pitches less than 40 games next year and pitches less than 115. A tricky situation for the Brewers, and who knows, maybe Garza will regain his form and become worth that salary.

Moving back to Braun, the slugger has put up one of his finest seasons yet in 2016. After his unbelievable run from 2008-2012, Braun was good, yet unspectacular from 2013-2015. This year, he has returned to his MVP form by hitting to a .921 OPS with 30 HR and 15 SB. He is the only player in the NL with 30+ HR and 10+ SB.

With his strong season, the Brewers tried to sell high on Braun at the trade deadline. Surprisingly, he received very little interest. Having four more years on his contract beyond 2016 for a 32 year old hitter is scary, but having a guy hit for his combination of average and power is extremely rare. His past steroid use and negative reputation around the game are also working against the Brewers in finding a trade partner.

The Dodgers had interest in Braun in August, and reportedly offered Yasiel Puig for him. There were varying reports to how serious discussions got, but they will be revisited in the offseason. The Brewers would be wise to trade their star outfielder in the offseason, as his stock will most likely never be higher while he is playing below his current market value.

Lastly, Lohse’s salary is a hindrance, but $2.33 M is nothing major for a team without many salary commitments in the near future.

Arbitration

With nine arbitration cases, there are no obvious non-tender candidates. Some may be considered, but none of these players have a 2016 salary that makes them too expensive to renew via arbitration. Any players who will receive a major arbitration raise will have earned it. Let’s look at each one on a case-by-case basis, ranked by their projected 2017 salary.

Chris Carter- Carter is finishing possibly his finest season as a full-time. The Brewers and other teams know what to expect from the slugging first basemen. Not much fielding or speed, huge power, and a ton of strikeouts. He can also work a walk but does not hit for a high average. His effortless swing is a thing of beauty when it connects, but it misses too often. After being non-tendered from the Astros after 2015, Carter saw a reduction of his 2014 $4.2 M salary. At the very least, he should surpass that total after being a steady presence in the Brewers lineup. With no ready-made replacement at first base currently, the Brewers have no reason to move on. He could also be a valuable trade asset next season if he continues mashing home runs.

Wily Peralta- The most relevant non-tender candidate, Peralta has struggled throughout 2016. After a very successful 2014, the right handed starter has been unable to replicate that success ever since. After an average 2015, Peralta earned a nice starting arbitration salary of $2.8. If he is brought by, which I predict him to be, he will receive a very modest raise in what could be his last chance to stick as a starter.

Tyler Thornburg- Ever since Jeremy Jeffress was traded, Thornburg has got the opportunity to close. He has taken this opportunity and ran with it, continuing his tremendous season. Though it is Thornburg’s first season of strong productivity, he should receive a very good starting arbitration salary of around $3 million.

Carlos Torres- The veteran reliever has bounced back from a weak 2015 with the Mets to put up very good numbers next to Thornburg in the back of the bullpen. Due to his strong ERA and high amount of appearances, Torres should get a raise upwards of a million.

Scooter Gennett- Gennett’s career has started with a strange decline of sorts. Since his impressive debut half season in 2013, the second basemen has seen his average decrease in every season. He may not have a spot as a starter next season but should be retained as his versatility and contract skills are still useful.

Chase Anderson- Similarly to Gennett, Anderson has seen his ERA climb in every year since his rookie campaign in 2014. His increase has been more modest and has been combined with a higher workload each season. Anderson will be back next year, but will have to improve to stay in the team’s plans.

Martin Maldonado- Many Major League hopefuls probably wonder how Maldonado does it. Since 2013, the catcher has hit under the Mendoza line, with only average power to go with it. He has always rated as a positive defender, but his offensive numbers are hard to justify. Without many established catchers in the Brewers system, Maldonado will most likely be brought back for his seventh year in a Brewers uniform, though for a small salary.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis- After bouncing around from the Mets to the Angels and then back to New York last season, Nieuwenhuis has found somewhat of a permanent home in Milwaukee. His average and on base numbers are ugly, but his power (13 HR in 334 AB) has been enough to warrant a contract for next season.

Jake Elmore- On his fifth team in as many seasons, Elmore has continued to struggle in MLB at bats. His 16 BB to 17 K are impressive, but there is not much else to be optimistic about. With immense versatility and a strong season at AAA Colorado, Elmore may be worth another look.

Team Control

As with most rebuilding teams, most players are under team control. With 26 Brewers with zero to three years of MLB experience, the majority of the 40-man roster is available for cheap this offseason.

Hitting wise, the Brewers carry perhaps half of their future infield in this category. Jonathan Villar has been outstanding, spending time all over the infield this season. Though his average has dropped lately as a result of his high BABIP catching up to him, his speed and contact skills have still been exceptional. Villar has also flashed impressive power, with 16 HR to combine with his 57 SB. With thee numbers, he has become the first player since Carl Crawford in 2009 to achieve 50+ SB and 15+ HR.

Shortstop Orlando Arcia has struggled a bit upon debuting last month, but that is not too concerning. As the shortstop of the future, Arcia will be given plenty of chances to prove his top prospect standing. He should be penciled in to start 2017, and hopefully years to come, at short.

Outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton have both impressed this season. Santana does it more with the bat, .455 SLG, while Broxton possesses great speed and fielding ability. Broxton was playing every day in center before his injury, and looked like he can man the spot for the entire 2017 season productively if given the chance. Santana’s power should allow him to line up next to Broxton on the Opening Day of next year.

Utility man Hernan Perez has surprised many, hitting 13 long balls and driving 51 runs in thus far. After never flashing any sort of power potential in previous MLB seasons, Perez has been a reliable hitter in the Brewers lineup. Able to play all over the field, Perez will need to learn how to take a walk to improve his future.

Other hitters of note include catcher Andrew Susac and outfielder Rymer Liriano. Both former prospects in the NL West with the Giants and Padres respectively, both hitters have struggled in the high levels of the minors and during brief MLB stints. Still, there was a reason they were both rated amongst their organizations top five prospects in 2014. If either, or both, are able to acclimate their talent to the big league level, it could go a long way to finding contention in Milwaukee.

Moving on to pitching, 31-year old rookie Junior Guerra highlights the group, as he has been terrific in his debut season. If Corey Seager wasn’t so good, Guerra could be considered for Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, at 31, his future may be limited.

Zack Davies, Taylor Jungmann, and Jimmy Nelson are three starters who will compete for next years rotation at a cheap price. After an impressive rookie year, Jungmann struggled before an injury in 2016. He will look to bounce back, and next year will be key to determining how many of these pitchers are in it for the long run in Milwaukee.

A variety of relievers have been pitching in the pen for the Brewers in their first few years, and some have established themselves as part of the future. Damien Magnifico has only thrown three innings, but may be my favorite name in the majors.

Final Analysis

Overall, the Brewers rebuild is escalating and will continue to do so in 2017. This offseason will be a relatively quiet one for Milwaukee with the exception of a possible Ryan Braun trade. As usual, the team does not figure to have much of a role in free agency, but could pursue a couple buy-low options. A catcher, outfielder, and starter are some needs that Stearns and his staff could pursue, but the team is not ready to contend just yet.

2017 will most likely be the last season Brewers executives use to evaluate who is a part of the future. Their crowded pitching staff looks something like this for next season:

SP: Guerra, Davies, Garza, Nelson, Anderson, Jungmann, Peralta

RP: Thornburg, Torres, Blazek, Knebel, Cravy, Barnes, Scahill, Martinez, Suter, Magnifico

This is four-five pitchers over the 25-man roster limit. As the Los Angeles Dodgers showed, you can never have too much pitching depth. At the same time, the Brewers must decide who is worth getting an extended look at, and who fits where. Without any injuries, Milwaukee will most likely bump Matt Garza from the rotation, creating an even bigger logjam in the bullpen. Beyond Thornburg and Torres, no one has a job secured in the pen. There is a lot of depth, but not many standouts.

On the hitting side, the left side of the infield figures to feature Villar and Arcia. Carter will most likely stay at first and Gennett and Perez could split time at second. Broxton, Braun, and Santana could form a formidable outfield, but catcher is a complete question mark. Outfield prospects Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray could also conceivably debut in 2017 as well.

The team projects to have $68 million in salary commitments, and should make their way up towards $80 with a few free agent additions. At the same time, a trade of Garza, Braun, or both could significantly bring down that number. This is a team that has seen its payroll reach $100 million during their peak in 2009, so they remain flexible as they eye a return to contention.

Next: Brewers All Time 25 Man Roster

With so many young players coming up, it is an exciting yet uneventful time for be a Brewers fan. With the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates within the division, the road to contention will not be easy. But, the Brewers have taken the right steps to get there by acquiring an influx of young talent in the field and at pitcher. A few solid pick ups, draft picks, or trades may be the final step in completing a successful rebuild in Milwaukee.