MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
By Joshua Mayer
Under Contract
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | 2017 Salary ($) | Beyond | WAR | Stats |
| OF Ryan Braun | 20 M | 20 M | 56 M to 2020, 15 M MO 2021 | 3.5 | .308/.371/.550, 30 HR |
| SP Matt Garza | 12.5 M | 12.5 M | FA | 1.2 | 18 G, 4.52 ERA |
| SP Kyle Lohse*** | 2.33 M | 2.33 M | 2.33 M 2018 | – | – |
| Totals | 34.83 M | 34.83 M | 58.33 M, 73.33 M w/MO | 4.7 | – |
***Lohse no longer with team but still being paid
Only two players under contract currently for the Brewers, and only one under contract beyond 2017. That player is superstar, former MVP Ryan Braun, but we’ll get to him later. The other is experienced starting pitcher Matt Garza.
Still only 32, Garza has seen a rapid decline since coming to Milwaukee. In his first season with the Brew Crew in 2014, he had a solid 3.64 ERA. Then, in 2015, it exploded to 5.63. This season his production has been between that of his first two years, as he has pitched to a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts. This is certainly not the production the team imagined when they signed Garza to a four year, $50 million contract.
Without much trade interest in a declining pitcher with a fat salary, Garza seems to be stuck on the Brewers. He could be cut, but the team would have to pay him anyway. He has not been terrible this season, so he should make the team in 2017. There have been reports that he has a vesting option in 2018, and that should vest if he pitches at least 115 innings in 2017, or totals 110 games during his four year deal. Milwaukee will be able to avoid paying him in 2018 if he pitches less than 40 games next year and pitches less than 115. A tricky situation for the Brewers, and who knows, maybe Garza will regain his form and become worth that salary.
Moving back to Braun, the slugger has put up one of his finest seasons yet in 2016. After his unbelievable run from 2008-2012, Braun was good, yet unspectacular from 2013-2015. This year, he has returned to his MVP form by hitting to a .921 OPS with 30 HR and 15 SB. He is the only player in the NL with 30+ HR and 10+ SB.
With his strong season, the Brewers tried to sell high on Braun at the trade deadline. Surprisingly, he received very little interest. Having four more years on his contract beyond 2016 for a 32 year old hitter is scary, but having a guy hit for his combination of average and power is extremely rare. His past steroid use and negative reputation around the game are also working against the Brewers in finding a trade partner.
The Dodgers had interest in Braun in August, and reportedly offered Yasiel Puig for him. There were varying reports to how serious discussions got, but they will be revisited in the offseason. The Brewers would be wise to trade their star outfielder in the offseason, as his stock will most likely never be higher while he is playing below his current market value.
Lastly, Lohse’s salary is a hindrance, but $2.33 M is nothing major for a team without many salary commitments in the near future.