MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Cincinnati Reds
With the offseason approaching in less than two months, and all teams’ rosters mostly settled for the year, it’s a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team. We continue the series with the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds have seen their win totals decline ever since they won 97 games in 2012. After limping to a 64-98 record last season, Cincinnati is looking to improve upon their record for the first time in four years. Currently 64-90 (as of September 24), the Reds only need one more win to get past 2015’s total. Still, this season has been far from successful as Cincinnati will finish in the NL Central cellar for the second straight year after not finishing in last since they were in the NL West in 1983.
With very few productive young players on the roster, the future looks bleak for the Reds. Many of the recently acquired prospects have struggled upon debuting for their new team.
Last season, the Reds did a nice job in extracting value for Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake before they became free agents. The haul they got for Cueto was considered a great one throughout the league. The Royals sent Cincinnati three young left handed pitchers. Those pitchers – John Lamb, Brandon Finnegan, and Cody Reed – pitched a combined 284 ⅔ innings to an ugly 5.22 ERA this season.
The return for Mike Leake has actually been better thus far, as slugger Adam Duvall has hit 31 home runs, albeit with a low AVG and OBP.
The team still has a few veterans under contract in long-time Reds Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Homer Bailey. It will be interesting to see if trade chatter picks up with any of these players over the offseason. The Blue Jays were rumored to be interested in Votto last year, but it is unknown if their new regime has similar interest.
With those three high profile stars under contract for the foreseeable future, the rest of the remaining veterans are free agents this coming November. Let’s take a look at those players first.
Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.
All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted
Upcoming Free Agents
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | WAR | Stats |
| SP Alfredo Simon | 2 M | -1.0 | 15 G, 9.36 ERA |
| RP Ross Ohlendorf | 800 K | -0.6 | 61 G, 4.86 ERA |
| RP Blake Wood | 600 K | 0.3 | 65 G, 4.06 ERA |
| Totals | 3.4 M | -1.3 | – |
Not much talent leaving the team here. We’ll start with former All-Star Alfredo Simon, who seems to be just about done in the big leagues. After a good run from 2012-2014 as both a starter and reliever, Simon struggled in 2015 with the Tigers. He was brought back to the Reds this year most likely with the hopes that he could return to his 2014 form. As a 35-year-old giving up over a run an inning, there is not much room for optimism.
Simon will not be brought back and he may have a hard time finding a minor league deal if he wishes to continue his career. Perhaps Simon can attempt to go back to the bullpen, a la Joe Blanton, after seeing his days as a starter dwindle. No matter the scenario, it would be a surprise to see Simon re-up with the rebuilding Reds team.
Ohlendorf has appeared in a surprising 61 games as a reliever and has been ineffective throughout. Ohlendorf does have a career high 9.3 K/9, but also has an ineffective 4.1 BB/9. After a brief yet effective 21-game stint with the Rangers, Ohlendorf moved to the Royals before being cut in Spring Training. He was then signed by Cincinnati and has been a mainstay in their bullpen all season.
After failing to impress in 2016, Ohlendorf will not be back with the Reds, as he should not be taking innings away from developing talent any longer. That being said, he should catch on easily with another team on a minor league deal to see if he can replicate his 2015 production.
The final pending free agent is reliever Blake Wood. Unlike Ohlendorf, Wood has been a pleasant surprise in the Reds’ otherwise disappointing bullpen. After only having one prior full season, Wood has led the pen in innings pitched with 71. Striking out more than a batter an inning, Wood should receive moderate interest around the league as a middle reliever and may end up back with the Reds.
Though he is not a part of the future for the rebuilding team, Wood can provide solid innings on a team badly in need of them. A two-year, $4-5 million deal seems fair, though a one-year contract would come as no surprise.
Under Contract
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | 2017 Salary ($) | Beyond | WAR | Stats |
| 1B Joey Votto | 20 M | 22 M | 150 M to 2023, 20 M CO 2024 | 4.2 | .320/.432/.529, 1.120 OPS since June 30 |
| SP Homer Bailey | 18 M | 19 M | 44 M to 2019, 25 M MO 2020 | 0.6 | 6 G, 6.65 ERA, 10.57 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 |
| 2B Brandon Phillips | 13 M | 14 M | FA | 0.9 | .289/.320/.417, 11 HR |
| C Devin Mesoraco | 5.03 M | 7.34 M | 13.13 M 2018 | -0.4 | 7-50, 5 BB |
| P Raisel Iglesias | 3.21 M | 4.21 M | 16.64 M to 2020 | 1.3 | 72 IP, 2.24 ERA |
| Ken Griffey Jr | 3.59 M | 3.59 M | 29 M to 2025 | – | – |
| Bronson Arroyo | 1.36 M | 1.36 M | 5.5 M to 2021 | – | – |
| Totals | 64.2 M | 71.5 M | 258.27 M, 303.27 M w/options | 6.6 | – |
Five players under contract for the Reds, so let’s look at each one individually:
Joey Votto: A forgotten star, Votto has started slow each of the past two years only to go on an absolute tear in the second half. Problem is, his team has been out of the race already when he gets on his hot streak. No one in baseball can match his 1.120 OPS since June 30, as Votto has got on base in more than half of his plate appearances since then. A feat only guys like Barry Bonds have accomplished.
His contract is still a bit concerning as it pays him $25 million each year up until his age 40 season. There has been mild trade interest, but it has not seemed like executive Walt Jocketty has pushed much for a deal. The former MVP does have a .400+ OBP in each of his full seasons since 2009, an encouraging sign for a player signed through his later years. His fielding and power could deteriorate, but he will always have his strong plate discipline.
Homer Bailey: Coming back from Tommy John surgery, Bailey has started six games so far. His ERA is an ugly 6.65, but his peripherals are much more promising. If he can come back with a strong full season in 2017 it would go a long way in validating the $100+ million contract he signed prior to 2015. As of now, letting Cueto go while signing Bailey seems highly questionable. Perhaps a strong start could lead to a trade for prospects, but that remains to be seen.
Brandon Phillips: The longtime Red has regressed once again this season but is still a productive player at second base. At 35 years old, his days as a top talent are over. With only a year left on his deal, it will be interesting to see if Phillips develops any trade interest next season. Similar to Chase Utley and the Phillies, the Reds have waited too long to get premier value for their star second basemen, but could still make up for it by getting something in return.
Devin Mesoraco: The only ugly contract on the list, Mesoraco has failed to stay on the field after signing his extension. In 2014, Mesoraco finally lived up to his top prospect status and hit 25 home runs with an impressive .893 OPS. The team was quick to reward him for this one season and he has responded by playing in 39 games since with zero homers and a .445 OPS. If he can come back healthy, the Reds backstop will be given every chance to make good on his five-year extension.
Raisel Iglesias: The Cuban righty has had a very strong season since being moved to the bullpen. After having success as a starter in 2015, Iglesias struggled to start the year in the rotation. He has since been moved to the bullpen as a fireman type, throwing multiple innings, and has not looked back. Iglesias has pitched in two or more innings in 16 of his 26 appearances. His ERA is sixth among relievers, and is only weighed down by his five starts. His contract is a bargain for the next several seasons, making him one of the few established young assets on the Reds team.
Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. and pitcher Bronson Arroyo are still getting paid, and will be for the foreseeable future. As much as Reds fans may wish Griffey was back in center, I’m sure he is happy with being paid while sitting at home.
Arbitration
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | 2017 ARB Est ($) (Yr) | WAR | Stats |
| SS Zack Cozart | 2.93 M | 4.5 M (3) | 2.5 | .252/.308/.425, 16 HR |
| OF Billy Hamilton | 970 K | 2.5 M (1) | 3.0 | .260/.321/.343, 58 SB |
| RP Tony Cingrani | 930 K | 1.6 M (1) | 0 | 62 G, 4.20 ERA |
| Totals | 4.83 M | 8.6 M | 5.5 | – |
Only three players eligible for arbitration, showing the huge youth movement that has taken place in Cincinnati. All players are either longtime Reds (Votto, Phillips, etc.) or extremely young, recently making their debuts. With the three arbitration cases, none of them are non-tender candidates, making life a bit easier on the Reds front office. Let’s take a look at exactly how much these players could be making in 2017:
Zack Cozart: Coming off his strongest season yet, Cozart should see a nice raise of over a million dollars. As a strong defensive shortstop, the five-year veteran showed off strong power in the first half but has cooled off since. Still a player at an important fielding position who slugs .425 is impressive and Cozart will be back next season with no ready-made replacement in the system. At the trade deadline, there was some interest from the Mariners but nothing came to fruition. As an upcoming free agent after 2017, it would be surprising for Cozart not to be moved during the year.
Billy Hamilton: Though he is still lacking with the bat, Hamilton has been productive enough as a hitter to warrant a starting job. His 58 stolen bases pace all of baseball, and he is second in the MLB amongst CFs in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with 14. Being caught stealing only eight times so far on the bases, Hamilton could become the first big leaguer since Tony Womack in 1997-1998 to have two consecutive 50+ steal years, while being caught fewer than 10 times. With a career high OPS of .664, the speedy outfielder has seemed to finally cement himself as an everyday player. A nice salary of $2+ million should be coming to Hamilton in his first go-round of arbitration.
Tony Cingrani: As a rookie in 2012, Cingrani burst onto the scene with 104 ⅔ terrific innings. In 18 starts and 23 appearances, the tall left-hander has a 2.92 ERA with 10.3 K/9. Looking like a star in the making, CIngrani struggled the next year and was moved to the bullpen in 2015. In 92 appearances since last season, the 27-year-old has struggled to a 4.92 ERA with an ugly 5.4 BB/9. I believe he deserves another shot at the rotation, but that may not be in the Reds’ plans. Regardless, he will be brought back in 2017 with a salary above a million, but most likely not over two.
Team Control
| Player | WAR | Stats | Est 1st Year Arb |
| SP Tim Adelman | -0.3 | 11 G, 4.06 ERA | 2019 |
| C Tucker Barnhart | 0.8 | .253/.318/.384, 46 RBI | 2018 |
| C Ramon Cabrera | -0.1 | .250/.286/.365, 23 RBI | 2019 |
| RP Caleb Cotham | -0.1 | 23 G, 7.40 ERA | 2019 |
| IF Ivan De Jesus | -0.4 | .235/.287/.290, 8 2B | 2018 |
| SP Anthony DeSclafani | 1.9 | 18 G, 3.15 ERA | 2018 |
| RP Jumbo Diaz | -0.4 | 41 G, 3.32 ERA | 2018 |
| OF Adam Duvall | 2.3 | .239/.294/.495, 31 HR | 2019 |
| RP Abel De Los Santos | 0 | 4 ⅓ IP, 3 ER | 2019 |
| SP Brandon Finnegan | 0.2 | 30 G, 4.10 ERA | 2019 |
| IF Dilson Herrera | – | .215/.308/.383, 6 HR Career(2014-2015) | 2019 |
| OF Tyler Holt | -0.6 | .235/.327/.296, 3 3B | 2019 |
| OF Hernan Iribarren | 0.3 | 9-22, 3 3B | 2019 |
| SP John Lamb | 0.1 | 14 G, 6.43 ERA | 2019 |
| C Raffy Lopez | -0.1 | 0-6, 3 K | 2019 |
| RP Michael Lorenzen | 0.4 | 32 G, 2.96 ERA | 2018 |
| RP Matt Magill | 0 | 2 ⅓ IP, 0 ER | 2019 |
| SP Jon Moscot | -0.8 | 5 G, 8.02 ERA | 2019 |
| RP Wandy Peralta | -0.2 | 6 IP, 7 ER | 2019 |
| UTIL Jose Peraza | 0.2 | .324/.346/.407, 16 SB | 2019 |
| SP Cody Reed | -0.4 | 10 G, 7.36 ERA | 2019 |
| IF Tony Renda | -0.2 | 8-42, 4 BB | 2019 |
| OF Yorman Rodriguez | 0 | 6-27, 2 RBI Career (2014) | 2019 |
| P Keyvius Sampson | -0.1 | 17 G, 3.49 ERA | 2019 |
| OF Scott Schebler | 0.3 | .257/.324/.422, 36 RBI | 2019 |
| OF Steve Selsky | 0.2 | 7-27, HR | 2019 |
| RP Josh Smith | -0.4 | 30 G, 4.86 ERA | 2019 |
| SP Robert Stephenson | -0.2 | 6 G, 5.59 ERA | 2019 |
| SP Dan Straily | 1.2 | 32 G, 3.83 ERA | 2018 |
| IF Eugenio Suarez | 1.5 | .245/.314/.410, 20 HR | 2018 |
| Totals | 5.1 | – (15 M) | – |
The majority of the current September roster stands here, as the youth movement in Cincinnati is seen with the players above. We’ll just highlight the noteworthy ones (sorry Raffy Lopez), but there are a good number of them.
Starting with catching, Tucker Barnhart and Ramon Cabrera have formed a formidable duo behind the plate for Bryan Price and the Reds. Without Devin Mesoraco, the team has relied on these two inexperienced youngsters and has seen some good results. Barnhart has received the bulk of the work, and has been a positive contributor at the plate and behind it. Cabrera has seen his first extensive big league action, and has been a surprising run producer, driving in 23 in 156 AB. Cabrera also has a positive defensive and offensive WAR. Since neither has a high ceiling, it would not be surprising to see the Reds pursue an upgrade this offseason.
Moving onto the infield, the Reds have seen Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, and Ivan De Jesus receive good amounts of playing time so far this year. Suarez has impressed with his power as the everyday third basemen and has shown he can be an integral part of the future. Only 25 years of age, Suarez has the ability to play all over the infield, and has received average to good defensive marks throughout his career (0 DRS 2016, 1.7 UZR).
Peraza has been arguably more impressive, but in a smaller sample size. Without a clear everyday spot, the utility man has been all over the field this year, and has hit wherever he goes, especially lately. Since August 30, Peraza has slashed .360/.374/.488 with seven XBH and four SB. It will be a challenge for the young Reds team to continue putting aging Brandon Phillips at second with Peraza sitting on the bench. An interesting dynamic to watch if Phillips remains on the team next year.
De Jesus has struggled in 200 at bats, and he seems to be merely a depth option as a 29-year-old utility man. Not to say he will not be back next season, but he and his .611 career OPS do not seem to be part of the future solution in Cincy.
Dilson Herrera was the main part of the Jay Bruce trade, but has yet to debut for the Reds. As a top prospect in New York, Herrera was looked at as a future starting second basemen. With Brandon Phillips’ days numbered in Cincinnati, it could soon be Herrera’s job.
The outfield situation looks a bit bleak, with Adam Duvall as the only one breaking through this season. Scott Schebler is another name to watch, as he has flashed impressive power since being promoted in August. Beyond those two, guys like “Stone Cold” Steve Selsky, Tyler Holt, and Hernan Iribarren have seen limited action, but none project as long-term starters.
Duvall has been a nice surprise, hitting 31 home runs and making it to the Home Run Derby, but has tailed off significantly in the second half. After 23 long balls in the first half, he only has eight since. His SLG has also dropped from .551 in the first half, to .407 thus far in the second. As a player with limited on-base and contact skills, he will need his power to return to stay in the lineup. Schebler has been solid after tearing up Triple-A pitching in Louisville, but his .734 OPS does not exactly scream star potential.
The rest of the notable players are pitchers, and there are a lot of them. Looking at already established starters, there is Dan Straily, Brandon Finnegan, and Anthony DeSclafani. All three look like they have a place in next year’s rotation. The rest of the group of young starters have not produced results warranting a spot next year, as John Lamb, Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Jon Moscot, and Tim Adleman have all struggled. Most of these pitchers are young, and should have more opportunities to prove their worth in 2017.
Michael Lorenzen and Jumbo Diaz have both been solid in extensive work in the bullpen, and should have a spot next season going into the spring. Pitcher Keyvius Sampson has also flashed potential but has not been consistent. A variety of other young hurlers have seen bullpen time, but have all struggled.
Final Analysis
| Under Contract | With ARB and TC Predictions | 2016 payroll | 2017 payroll EST |
| $71.5 M | $95.10 M | $117.4 M | $113 M |
With a projected $95 million in salary commitments, the Reds won’t have much room to splurge on free agents in the offseason. Regardless, as a team going through a heavy rebuild, large contracts to veterans would not make much sense anyhow.
The team will look to trade away veterans if anything, and recent chatter has begun on a Brandon Phillips trade. Blocking Jose Peraza at second, Phillips is no longer an integral part of the everyday lineup. With a .336/.356/.486 slash line in the second half, Philips is showcasing himself nicely to other teams, if he is willing to waive his no-trade clause.
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The lineup is not fully developed, but has seen a nice duo step up at catcher, along with a solid infield of Votto, Peraza, Cozart, and Suarez for next year. The outfield has Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall, but not much in the form of depth after Jay Bruce’s departure. In a perfect world, top prospect Dilson Herrera would take the second base job, while Peraza would move to the outfield. But as we know, MLB is far from a perfect world.
The rotation is the biggest issue, as there are a few nice pieces, but no one flashing top-of-the-rotation talent. If Homer Bailey can stay healthy next season, he could be a possible #1 type starter. Beyond him is Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily, and Brandon Finnegan. That trio is far from promising, but all were serviceable this year. A step up from any one of their other young pitchers would be huge for a team desperately needing young talent to show up.
The bullpen is also a mess, but with many young arms, it could be fixed very easily. As the Braves have done, the Reds have been stockpiling arms as of late, and will soon see who projects in the bullpen and rotation respectively. Still, for at least 2017, the bullpen will be patched together with spare parts as the team is still searching for a closer.
Lastly, the team could ultimately part with manager Bryan Price after three poor seasons. However, the team may prefer to wait to hire a new coach until the rebuild is ready to begin a turnaround, and that does not seem to be the case.
Next: Jose Fernandez Dies in Boating Accident
With a strange mixture of young talent and veterans, the Reds have some big decisions to make in the offseason. The team will stay relatively quiet on the free agent market, but will be actively working the phones to gauge interest in their high-priced veterans. It would be of no surprise to see Cincinnati pull off multiple trades before Spring Training, as there is no point in keeping players like Brandon Phillips in 2017. Overall, Reds fans should enjoy grounders to second base for the last few games of 2016, as it may be the last time they see Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto donning the Big Red Machine uniform.