Oakland Athletics Next Ace: 100% Cotton?
By Jason Burke
A lot of criticism has been thrown the way of the Oakland Athletics over the past couple of dismal seasons in a ballpark that needs a serious facelift (or a completely new facility) and a lack of well-known players following the trade of Josh Donaldson among others. But could they have another ace in the making?
In Sonny Gray, it looked as though the Oakland Athletics had their ace for the next slew of years (insert trade joke that never gets old), but after this season’s struggles, the team could be on the lookout for their next “ace of the future”.
At the trade deadline, the A’s moved Rich Hill, who they had signed, likely in the hopes that he would continue the success he had shown at the tail end of last season in order to be flipped at the deadline, along with beloved outfielder Josh Reddick. In return from Los Angeles, Oakland received three pitching prospects. One with a history of injuries, but if he could stay healthy could prove to big a big bullpen piece. Another vaulted to third on their prospect rankings according to MLB Pipeline.
The third, Jharel Cotton, has already been cutting his teeth in the big leagues and is showing that he belongs. Through three starts, Cotton has totaled 18 innings and holds a 1.50 ERA, which has many fans in Oakland excited about his future returns. Yet, his FIP is nearly two runs higher at 3.85 which could be a more accurate representation of the type of pitcher we’ll be seeing in 2017.
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That isn’t to say that a 3.85 ERA is bad. In fact, that’s well below league average this season. It just isn’t the mark of an ace.
In a recent piece on FanGraphs, Eno Sarris and Carson Cistulli discussed pitching, and more specifically how Cotton’s “stuff” has added up to his sterling ERA thus far. Sarris, being the pitch-type enthusiast he is, discusses Cotton’s swing-and-miss rates on his cutter and his changeup and how they rate among league averages. The cutter has seen opponents whiff 22 percent of the time while his changeup, largely regarded as the better offering from Cotton, produces swings-and-misses 16 percent of the time.
Sarris’ explanation for this basically boils down to how his pitches work off of one another. He states that Cotton has never seen many whiffs on his off-speed offering, instead using other “non-changeup” offerings to collect strikeouts. In Triple-A with the Dodgers this season that strikeout rate sat at 11 punch-outs per nine, while in the big leagues it’s been exactly half that rate.
On the bright side, they offer up other pitchers with unspectacular offerings but solid command (like Cotton), including NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Hendricks.
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While I’m not ready to declare Jharel Cotton the next Oakland Athletics diamond in the rough, the collection of arms that they are accumulating is fairly tantalizing. If Sonny Gray comes back in 2017 healthy and close to his 2015 form, he, Cotton, Sean Manaea, Kendall Graveman and potentially Andrew Triggs (whom FanGraphs declared could have number two starter potential) could form a sneaky good rotation for the A’s. Add in Raul Alcantara, Daniel Mengden and Jesse Hahn as depth options and Chris Bassitt (Tommy John) and Henderson Alvarez (shoulder surgery) as wild cards for next season and there are ten pitchers already with the club that have all had varying success in the big leagues.
Cotton may not be the ace of a staff over an entire season, but he has shown that he certainly has the potential to pitch like the top guy in the rotation, at least in short spurts.