Chicago Cubs: What Would the Playoff Rotation Look Like?
The Chicago Cubs have won 100 games for the sixth time in their history. This team has generated more buzz than the previous seven Cubs playoff teams that date back to 1984. Can we read anything into their rotation for the weekend for how it relates to the playoffs?
The Chicago Cubs have Jake Buchanan, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks pitching for them in Cincinnati this weekend. Buchanan will not be on the playoff roster. Lester and then Hendricks pitching Saturday and Sunday gives a good indication that they will be pitching the first two games of the playoffs next Friday and Saturday at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs have used a six-man rotation through most of September. They did this to give Lester, Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel some extra rest. Mike Montgomery has been the sixth starter. He is likely slated for a bullpen spot as a long man and lefty specialist in the playoffs.
Arrieta has been the Cubs’ best pitcher over the last two seasons but struggled in his last two playoff starts last season. He gave up eight runs in 10.2 innings combined against the Cardinals and Mets. This came after a complete game five-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts and no walks against the Pirates in the Wild Card game.
Lester and Lackey both have extensive playoff experience. Lester has pitched in the playoffs for the Red Sox, A’s and Cubs and Lackey for the Angels, Red Sox and Cardinals.
Lester is the Cubs pitcher with the most experience that is having the best season and that’s why he is likely to start Game 1. He will go for his 20th victory of the season on Saturday against the Reds. Lester is 19-4 this year with a 2.28 ERA, 0.977 WHIP and 191 strikeouts.
Lester has pitched well in the postseason throughout most of his career. He is only 6-6, but he has a 2.85 ERA and 1.071 postseason WHIP.
Hendricks has emerged this season as another top of the rotation starter. He was acquired from Texas in the Ryan Dempster trade. He is leading the National League with a 1.99 ERA. He was mediocre in two playoff starts last season, lasting only 8.2 innings combined.
Similar to Arrieta last season, Hendricks has been nearly unhittable in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Hendricks is 9-2 with a 1.36 ERA, 0.892 WHIP and a 5 K/BB ratio. Also like Arrieta, Hendricks did not make the NL All-Star team despite a 2.55 ERA and 1.034 WHIP at the break.
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Arrieta is going have a huge advantage pitching in Game 3. The Giants and Mets are tied for the NL Wild Card with the Cardinals one game behind them as we head into the last weekend of the season.
Arrieta would match up with one of those teams’ fourth starters. The Mets rotation is not nearly as deep as it was last season with Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom out for the season. The Mets rotation will be Noah Syndergaard if they get to the Wild Card game, Bartolo Colon and then a big question mark.
If the Giants win the Wild Card game, their fourth starter would likely be Matt Moore or Matt Cain. The Giants will be able to match the Cubs at the top of the rotation with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and former Cub Jeff Samardzija, but would struggle to match Arrieta in his start.
Bumgarner would almost definitely pitch the Wild Card game, which would slate Cueto for Game 1. He was a member of the Royals world championship team last season.
St. Louis has had its ups and downs this season. Carlos Martinez is their only starter with an ERA below 4.00. He is 15-9 with a 3.15 ERA. He would likely be the starter in the Wildcard game on Wednesday with Adam Wainwright scheduled to pitch Sunday.
Lackey is one of the toughest players in baseball and has an almost full season worth of playoff experience. He has made 23 postseason starts in his career. He has pitched well in almost every postseason he’s pitched in. Lacked was on the 2002 Angels and 2013 Red Sox world championship teams. He also had the Cardinals only win in their 3-1 series loss to the Cubs last season.
Hammel will be the odd man out for the Cubs. He has been a great back-end of the rotation guy for them. Hammel has 28 wins over the last two seasons. Joe Maddon was highly criticized when Hammel started Game 4 against the Mets in the NLCS last season.
Next: Joe Maddon Not Worried About Arrieta's Velocity
Prior to last season, Hammel had pitched in the postseason with Colorado and Baltimore. In last year’s playoffs, Hammel gave up seven earned runs over 4.1 innings over two starts. There has been no indication from the Cubs if Hammel will or will not make the postseason roster. The Cubs begin postseason play at home on October 7.