U.S. World Baseball Classic Dream Would Look Like This
Next March the fourth World Baseball Classic will take place in various sites throughout Asia, Latin America, and the U.S. Through the first three WBC’s, the U.S. has yet to medal.
The United States best finish was fourth in 2009. The 1992 U.S. Olympic Dream Team was truly the best basketball players in the U.S. getting together to create something special. Nice symmetry could be created for the WBC by having a baseball dream for the Silver Anniversary.
The World Baseball Classic rosters have traditionally consisted of 28 players. There has been talk that number could expand to be able to add two players after the first round and two more for the semifinals. The thinking behind this is that is would allow players to be with their teams’ in spring training more often.
The idea has been floated around with the thinking being that more players would commit to their national teams. If the best Americans committed to playing for their country, the U.S. would be a serious contender.
The U.S. has usually split the roster evenly between pitchers and position players. Flexibility is even more important for the WBC than the baseball postseason and even more so than the 162 game regular season.
The 2009 U.S. roster had versatility from All-Star players. Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn (although some might argue Dunn didn’t have a position), Ryan Braun and Mark DeRosa were among the players on the roster who could play more than one position. That was the only Classic the U.S. advanced past the second round.
This roster is as close as possible to what the dream team would be. It doesn’t necessarily project what players the U.S. will decide to add to the roster or who will commit to playing.
Next: Catchers
Catchers
C-Buster Posey/ Jonathan Lucroy
The 2006 and 2013 U.S. teams carried three catchers and the 2009 team had two on their roster. The team will likely carry three, but two are significantly better than anyone else. Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy should be those two catchers.
The Giants won the World Series in Posey’s first full season two years after Posey was the fifth overall pick in the 2008 draft. They also won World Series titles in 2012 and ’14. In his eight seasons in the majors, Posey has 114 home runs, 511 RBIs, and .307 career batting average.
Lucroy had been with Milwaukee since he debuted in 2010. He spent his entire career there until the Brewers traded him to Texas ahead of the August 1 trading deadline this season. He has a .289 career batting average with 89 home runs and 412 RBIs.
Lucroy ranks fourth overall and second among American catchers with an 8.5 defense rating and Posey is one spot behind scoring an 8.2.
There are a few ways the U.S. could go if they decide on a third catcher. Brian McCann seems to be the most frequently mentioned. The best candidate would be the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto has a 10.1 defensive rating, ranking between Lucroy and Posey. Realmuto is hitting .313 with ten home runs and 41 RBIs this season.
McCann’s batting average has dipped in three of the last four seasons, but his power remains. McCann is hitting .238 with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs in 382 at-bats this season. Among nine qualified catchers, McCann is the only one with a negative number defensively at -1.7.
Evan Gattis is another possibility as the third catcher. He has 32 home runs and 70 RBIs, but just a .249 batting average and a -0.9 defense rating.
Next: First basemen
First Base
1B-Anthony Rizzo/ Paul Goldschmidt
Rizzo is a wildcard. He played with Italy in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and would have to switch allegiance to the U.S. to be on the 2017 American team. He hit .235 with no home runs and six RBIs in five games for the Italians in 2013. He also walked five times in 22 plate appearances for a .409 on-base percentage.
Rizzo is an MVP candidate this season, but it’s going to be tough to win because of the season his teammate Kris Bryant is having. Rizzo is on pace for career-highs in almost every offensive category this season. He is hitting .292 with 32 home runs and 106 RBIs. .
Goldschmidt has shined in what has been an otherwise disappointing season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He is hitting .299 with 23 homers and 93 driven in. His numbers are on pace to be below what they have been the last few years. Goldschmidt finished as the runner-up in the NL MVP race in 2013 and ’15. He is tied with Joey Votto for the National League lead with 108 walks
Next: Second base
Second base- Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia
There are many second basemen having career years. Brian Dozier has exploded since the All-Star break. Dozier is hitting .270 with 42 home runs and 99 RBIs. He is hitting .295 with 28 home runs and 56 RBIs since the break. Dozier has the highest WAR among American second basemen.
Daniel Murphy is a legitimate MVP candidate with Rizzo, Bryant and Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado. Murphy is fifth overall and third among American second basemen in WAR, three spots behind Dozier. He is second to all second basemen with a .347 (D.J. LeMahieu, .349) batting average and first with 104 RBIs.
Neither Dozier at 1.4 or Murphy at -7.3 have a good defensive metric. Kinsler and Pedroia are the top two second basemen defensively and would also provide a good bat. In a short series and a one-and-done knockout stage, one defensive mistake could end a tournament run.
Pedroia is hitting .319 with 15 home runs and 74 RBIs this season. He has a major league-leading 13.5 defense rating among second basemen and has won four gold gloves.
Kinsler is having one of the best years of his career. Kinsler is hitting .281 with 25 home runs, 81 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases. His defensive metric is 11.8.
The decision between Pedroia and Kinsler could come down to the hot hand or if Jim Leyland wants to go with speed and power or defense and batting average. Both slot nicely to second in the batting order. Kinsler is also eligible to play for Israel.
Next: Third Base
Third Base- Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, and Josh Donaldson
This is the hardest position to decide upon. Donaldson is the reigning AL MVP and Bryant and Arenado are the NL’s leading candidates this season. Bryant’s versatility is key. He can play the corner outfield positions and probably third base in a pinch. Bryant is first, Donaldson second and Arenado seventh among third baseman in overall WAR.
Bryant is having a historic season. He can become one of a handful of players that can win the Rookie of the Year and an MVP in his first two seasons in the Majors. Throw in the 2013 Golden Spikes and Dick Howser awards as the college player of the year and a 2014 Minor League player of the year award and he’s setting precedents that haven’t been set before.
Bryant is leading the National League in home runs, runs, plate appearances and OPS+. He’s hitting .293 with 39 home runs and 101 RBIs. He’s also played 93 games at third, 46 in left field, 14 in right and eight at three other positions.
Arenado is leading the NL in RBIs for the second straight season and one ahead of Bryant for the home run lead. He is also sixth among MLB with an 7.8 defensive rating. Arenado has been the National League’s Gold Glove third baseman in his first three years in the Majors. He finished with 42 home runs and 130 RBIs last season and also led the National League in total bases and sacrifice flies.
Donaldson was ironically a first-round pick by the Cubs in 2007. He was shipped to Oakland a year later in a trade that Cubs acquired Rich Harden in. Donaldson was a very good player in Oakland, finishing fourth in the 2013 MVP voting and eighth in 2014.
He was traded to the Blue Jays before the 2015 season. In his first year in Toronto he led the American League in total bases, RBIs and runs scored. He hit .297 with 41 home runs, 123 RBIs, and a .939 OPS. He has matched his 2015 number with 122 runs scored and has increased his OPS to a career-high .966. Donaldson’s 3.9 defensive metric puts him 12th among all MLB third basemen.
Next: Shortstop
Shortstop-Corey Seager
Seager is as close to a lock as National League Rookie of the Year as there is for any of the season’s awards. Per CBSSports.Com, Seager is “third in average, ninth in slugging, ninth in OPS, sixth in OPS+, third in runs, second in hits, fifth in total bases, first in doubles, sixth in extra-base hits, seventh in times on base and third in WAR (behind only Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado).”
His 7.3 WAR leads all shortstops and his 17.3 defensive metric ranks fifth overall. His fielding percentage ranks tenth in the National League and 20th overall. As a rookie, he has a chance to get the triple crown for his position. He leads in batting average and RBIs and is just two home runs behind fellow rookie Trevor Story who is out for the season.
Seager is the only shortstop on the roster, but Kinsler, Pedroia and even (spoiler) Mookie Betts who played shortstop in the minors can slide their in a pinch.
Next: Outfield
Outfield- Mookie Betts, Ryan Braun, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout
It was a tough decision to go with four or five outfielders, with the team three deep at third base and Bryant’s ability to play the corner outfield spots, four became the logical choice.
Betts has had a breakout season. He leads all right fielders in baseball in runs scored, doubles, RBIs, batting average and OPS. Defensively Betts is second in assists and fielding percentage and is first in total chances and range factor. Betts ranks third in defense and is far and above the leader in offensive rating and also leads in overall WAR.
Braun has been one of the best players in baseball since his career started. He went 4-for-8 with a home run and three RBIs in his first two games in the Major Leagues. Braun wasn’t called up from the minors until May 25, 2007. In spite of the late start, Braun still hit 34 home runs, drove in 97 and won the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Braun has averaged .304 with 34 home runs 112 RBIs per 162 games in his career. He gives Jim Leyland versatility. Braun can also play third base in a real pinch, but hasn’t done so since he debuted in the big leagues.
Harper won the NL Rookie of the Year five years after Braun. He hit .270 with 22 home runs, drove in 59 and had 18 stolen bases. Harper likely slots in at left field. Betts scores higher defensively with a 10.4 defensive WAR to Harper’s 3.5.
Trout has the highest overall WAR among centerfielders at 8.3, but his defensive WAR is 12th at 1.2. He is still arguably the most complete player in baseball. Betts is close to challenging Trout for that title.
Despite playing in 40 games in 2011, Trout was still eligible for Rookie of the Year in 2012. He had one of the best rookie seasons in MLB history. Trout hit .326 with 30 home runs and 83 RBIs. He led the American League with 49 stolen bases, 129 runs, and a 168 OPS+.
He led the American League in runs scored his first three seasons in the Majors. He finished second in the MVP voting, as he has done in three of his first four major league seasons. He was the MVP in 2014.
Pitching
Picking the pitching staff is the trickiest. There are many questions about the pitchers in the WBC. The WBC is doing everything they can to protect the pitchers. New rules have been instituted for the 2017 classic that allows teams to add two pitchers to the roster for each round they advance.
Pitchers are limited to 85/80/95 pitches in the qualifying, second and championship round. Pitchers must also have four days of rest with 50 or more pitches, one day with 30 or more pitches and one day of rest after pitching consecutive days.
The U.S. has a deep and talented pool of pitchers to choose from. Rosters will be at 28 for the qualifying round, 30 for the second round and 32 for the championship round. The U.S. is likely to carry as many pitchers as they can without depleting the position players depth.
This roster has 14 pitchers on it, six starters and eight relievers. The starting staff selected here is so good, that the final two cuts were Jon Lester and Zack Greinke. Lester has bounced back after an up and down the first season with the Cubs. His 19 wins this season are tied for the lead in the National League with Max Scherzer.
Greinke signed a six-year $206.5 million contract last off-season with Arizona. He is having his worst season since he went 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA his second season in the Majors with Kansas City in 2005.
Starting Pitching- Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale
This list would unquestionably be the best rotation in the WBC. The six pitchers that made the final cut are Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. The rotation has balance with three left-handers and three right-handers.
Picking the order would be difficult, but Bumgarner has shined in the postseason. The lefty has a 7-3 record with a 2.14 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 14 career post-season appearances with 12 starts.
Kershaw has been baseball’s most dominant pitcher over the last six seasons. He is 99-36 with a 2.06 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 5.62 K/BB ratio and has been striking out ten per nine innings. The postseason has been a different story. Kershaw is 2-6 with a 4.59 ERA in the postseason, his K/BB ratio falls to 3.35/1, strangely enough, his K/9 rises a tad to 10.2/1.
In just two seasons in the Majors, Syndergaard has already become one of baseball’s best pitchers. In 53 career starts, Syndergaard has a 5.23 K/BB ratio, 10.6 K/9, and a 1.086 WHIP. He leads the National League this season allowing 0.5 HR/9 and with a 2.25 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
As a rookie in the postseason last year, Syndergaard went 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA. He did strike out 26 hitters in just 19 innings, held opposing hitters to a .167 batting average and 1.21 WHIP.
On the field, he has been one of the few constants for the Mets in an injury-plagued 2016 season. If the Mets Qualify for the playoffs he is going to be counted on much more than last season. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom are already done for the year with injuries.
Arrieta was due for a regression this season after his record-setting second half and Cy Young year in 2015. He was 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA last season. He is a Cy Young candidate again this season. Arrieta is 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA.
One of the concerns with Arrieta has been his control. He is averaging 3.5 BB/9 compared to 3.5 BB/9 last season. His WHIP is still solid at 1.08.
Scherzer did not become an elite pitcher until he went 21-3 and won the Cy Young with Detroit in his sixth season in 2013. He has been the ace and horse of the Washington staff this season. Scherzer is 19-7 with a 2.82 ERA this year. He leads the league with 223.1 innings, 277 strikeouts, a 0.94 WHIP, 6.3 H/9 and 5.12 K/BB ratio.
Sale was the leading candidate for the American League Cy Young Award at the All-Star break. He was 14-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He has actually pitched better in the second half but hasn’t gotten run support to help out his record.
In the second half. Sale is 3-6 with a 2.93 ERA. His WHIP, K/9, and K/BB ratio have all gone down in the second half. One or two of these six not likely to pitch for team USA.
The WBC’s pitch count rules make the bullpens arguably the most important of a team through the tournament. Pitching is where the U.S. will have a big advantage over the other teams and the bullpen will be a big part of that.
The Orioles Zach Britton, Red Sox Craig Kimbrel, Royals Wade Davis, Yankees Dellin Betances, Indians Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and Mariners Steve Cishek give the U.S. balance from the left and right side and a good mixture of youth and experience. Cishek and Kimbrel pitched for the U.S. in the 2013 WBC.
Britton could challenge for a Cy Young this season. A relief pitcher has not won a Cy Young award since Eric Gagne with the Dodgers in 2003, Dennis Eckersley was the last AL reliever to win the Cy Young.
Britton is 2-1 with a 0.55 ERA, 47 saves. a 0.83 WHIP. five H/9 and 3.94 K/BB ratio. He has unquestionably become the best reliever in the game.
Although he made the All-Star game, Kimbrel has had an up and down season in his first year in Boston. The former Padre and Brave missed almost four weeks in July with an injury. He has still managed to pitch in 55 games and save 30 games this season.
Kimbrel is a power pitcher. He has averaged 14.5 K/9 innings this season and for his career. He led the National League in saves with Atlanta from 2011-14.
Davis took over the as the Royals closer last season when Greg Holland got hurt. Davis has had problems staying healthy this season. His missed the first two weeks of July and all of August. He remains one of the most dominant closers in baseball.
Davis has a 1.91 ERA with 27 saves, a 9.6 K/9 and 2.81 K/BB ratio. He also has experience in high-pressure situations with the Royals postseason runs the last two seasons.
Betances became the Yankees closer when Aroldis Chapman and Miller were traded at the deadline. He has 12 saves, a 3.13 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 15.4 K/9 and a 4.39 K/BB ratio. He has not pitched in the postseason yet, but many would argue pitching in the New York pressure cooker is tougher.
Miller teamed with Britton would give the US team an incredible 1-2 tandem from the left side. Miller has 12 saves on the season, but he has mostly been used as a setup man this year. He has an incredible 0.69 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, and astonishing 13.22 K/BB ratio. On the season he has 119 strikeouts and nine walks in 72 innings.
Allen and Miller give the Indians a formidable lefty/righty combination out of the pen as they ready themselves for the playoffs. He led the American League with 58 games finished in 2015. This season he has 30 saves, a 2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 3.19 K/BB ratio.
Cishek lost the closer’s job early this season to Edwin Diaz. In spite of losing his job, he is still one of the better relievers in baseball. After struggling in the middle of the season, Cishek has put together a good September.
All of his numbers are down in the second half. He still has 25 saves this season with a 2.97 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 3..70 K/9.
If the U.S. would get their players to commit the way other countries players take pride in their countries, the U.S. would be the perennial favorite to win. It’s “the dream team” and the ideal situation if it would occur. The likelihood is if the U.S. gets half of this list they will be fortunate.
Next: Israel Qualifies for World Baseball Classic
Ian Kinsler has said if he is not asked to play on the US team he will play for Israel. Ryan Braun whose father is Israeli is also eligible for the Israeli team.