Getting Rid of Expensive, Non-Productive Players
Minnesota will always qualify for the competitive balance lottery draft selections due to their market size in the Twin Cities area, so it’s going to be rare to see the Twins with a $100M payroll. So when you look at 2017’s payroll (courtesy Baseball-Reference.com) and see already that the estimated payroll after arbitration and pre-arb costs are figured into things is $102.7M, you know there will need to be some changes made.
The first one that is obvious is Joe Mauer. Yes, he’s a hometown guy. Yes, he’s a marketing jewel. However, he’s no longer a productive hitter and being an above-average defender at first base is certainly not worth $23M for 2017 and 2018. That said, his contract is now up after 2018, and it is possible that the Twins could spin a trade of two seasons of Mauer much more easily than a year or two ago. It is also quite feasible that a new front office won’t have the same level of loyalty to Mauer that the Terry Ryan front office had. I would almost guarantee that the Twins have to eat at least half of his remaining salary to move Mauer, however, which may not be enticing.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Then you come to pitchers. Phil Hughes makes $13.2M and Ervin Santana makes $13.5M in 2017. Hughes was injured and missed most of the season after a fluke knee injury was followed up by season-ending shoulder surgery in June. Hughes parlayed his very solid 2014 season into a big contract, and the Twins are on the hook for $39.6M and 3 more seasons of him. However, Hughes was significantly less effective in 2015, and his 2016 season was off to an even more terrible start than 2015 before he was out for the year. At roughly $7M per WAR, however, Hughes’ 2015 performance would be at market value for his contract, so he could be sold as still being 30 with that level of talent, however having the shoulder issues could also make him a tough sell without eating a significant portion of his salary.
That brings us to Ervin Santana. Santana was signed by the Twins before 2015 and was almost immediately popped for a PED suspension and missed half of the 2015 season. Santana still threw 108 innings in 2015, and he’s been able to post a 3.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last four seasons after having an up-and-down start to his career with the Angels. Santana won’t be a staff ace, but he’s a guy who makes 30 starts each season and gives the team nearly 200 innings each season as well, averaging 216 innings per 162 games over those four seasons. His contract currently sits at $13.5M for 2017 and 2018 with a 2019 option at $14M, and at the level of production he’s given, even at 33 years old, that’s a very reasonable salary going forward in the open market. The Twins could find a solid market in the offseason for Santana’s services, and he could be the guy who they can shed 2017 and beyond salary obligations without having to eat any of the money involved and also getting a solid return as well.
The final option would be one that would certainly be unpopular, but it may be even more feasible to make the move. Glen Perkins is a local player, graduating from high school in Minnesota and then attending the University of Minnesota before being drafted by the Twins. He’s been one of the rare successful left-handed closers in baseball over the last 5 seasons, and since he converted to relief in 2010, Perkins has posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 334 appearances, converting 120 saves and striking out 9.5 K/9 along with a sparkling 4.52 K/BB rate. He is coming off of shoulder surgery that will delay the start of his spring training this year, so he would likely be traded at a discount, but Perkins is only making $6.5M in 2017 and has a team option for the same amount in 2018, a very reasonable price for an effective left-handed reliever. While fans may not like the idea, a front office coming in without the same loyalty to players from the Terry Ryan era may see this as an opportunity to move Perkins.