Cincinnati Reds 2016-2017 Top 5 Offseason Priorities

The Cincinnati Reds finished the 2016 season with a record of 68-94, earning them the #2 selection in the 2017 draft. What should be the team’s priorities for the 2016-2017 offseason?

Pitching

The Cincinnati Reds pitching was simply bad. No two ways about it. For the first time in their recorded history, Fangraphs had the entire Reds pitching staff with a negative overall WAR. That is incredibly bad. As mentioned in the season review, there were some bright spots, and overall, the Reds staff is quite young, so there’s room to dream on this pitching staff, but there’s definitely some work that could be done.

Right now, the starting rotation lines up to include Dan Straily, Brandon Finnegan, Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey, and then a competition among a number of young pitchers like John Lamb, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson, and Amir Garrett. One of the big concerns with the rotation is going to be innings as DeSclafani missed a big chunk of 2016, Bailey only made six starts while returning from surgery, and only three pitchers total (Straily, Finnegan, DeSclafani) had 100+ innings thrown on the season. One of the focuses in the offseason could certainly be a guy who eats up innings, perhaps someone like an Ervin Santana of the Minnesota Twins by using one or more of their arms close to the majors as bait. That would seem to fit needs for both teams, frankly.

In the bullpen, it’s a mess. Left-hander Tony Cingrani has his crazy fastball that is difficult to pick up out of the hand, and it’s not worked to be a one-pitch starter. Instead, Cincinnati made him their closer this season, and while he saved 17 games, he had a 1.44 WHIP and a 4.53 FIP in the role, so the team very well may look elsewhere to close out games. Luckily, they do have two excellent options that could work with Cingrani to be a right-left-right combination in the final few innings.

Raisel Iglesias transitioned to the bullpen this season, and it was an incredibly successful transition. His stuff plays up in the bullpen well, and his straight fastball is more difficult for pitchers to time when they don’t get multiple at bats to do so against him. Michael Lorenzen also found the bullpen to be a great spot for his stuff as his heavy sinker and slider combination led to a low strikeout approach in the rotation, but in the bullpen, he was able to get weak swings and attack more with the slider rather than trying to conserve pitches by creating contact, which allowed him to get plenty of swing and miss.

Outside of Iglesias and Lorenzen, there’s a lot of pieces that are “meh” in the bullpen. Jumbo Diaz put up solid numbers, but his ERA was 3.14 with a FIP of 5.24, so there was plenty of “luck” involved in his numbers, and he’s 32 years old, so there’s not a lot of growth to come. Keyvius Sampson could be another excellent transition candidate, but he’s had a very fragile arm in his minor league career thus far, so it may take some time, meaning he may not be ready for a “big” role in 2017, but he could certainly contribute. There are also a number of other arms in the system who are close and could contribute from the excellent AA and AAA teams that the Reds had this year. It could also be an excellent way to help with the expected shortage of innings pitched in the rotation to keep one or two of their young starters in the bullpen as well as a long man.

In the free agent market, there are quite a few right-handed relievers, but the Reds really would need help from the left side. That market is pretty weak this year, with Aroldis Chapman being the highlight player, and there’s likely no re-connection coming there. Outside of that, there’s Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn, Boone Logan, Marc Rzepczynski, and Travis Wood for guys under 35 that are available on the market, and that’s it. The team could hope for a bargain signing in that group, or they could stick with their lefty starters in the bullpen instead.

Next: Infield Defense

Infield Defense

While the Reds found an absolute gem in Adam Duvall, not just with his 30+ home run power, but also with his excellent defense in left field alongside all-world Billy Hamilton, who even took another step forward in 2016 when healthy, by all reports, their infield defense was in bad need of such a find.

Eugenio Suarez is not a guy who will win Gold Gloves, but he also won’t cost you anything at the position either. He’s an average defender with solid instincts and an arm that grades out statistically much worse than it truly is, which makes me wonder if the move from short to third this year was simply some adjusting to making those throws that made his arm look worse than it actually is, as he has always had excellent grades on his arm.

Suarez, however, was the singular bright spot in the infield. Zack Cozart is an elite defender if he can stay healthy, but he’s also played 174 games in the last two seasons, and he’s 31. He played through a nagging knee injury this season on the same knee that he hurt significantly in 2015. When he was out, the team relied on either defense-first, no bat guys like Ivan DeJesus, or a guy like Jose Peraza, whose defense at shortstop has led to him being tried at 2B, LF, and CF already by the Reds because they want his contact and speed in the lineup. Brandon Phillips struggled defensively, having taken significant steps backward from the elite defender he once was at second base now that he’s reached 35 years old.

While I don’t exactly understand the statistical measures of first base due to the guys who get rated well and who doesn’t based on watching them, Joey Votto was rated as one of the worst fielding first basemen in the game. I don’t think he’s at that level, but he certainly was not the high-end defender he’s been in the past this season. Whether that had to do with Phillips’ decline next to him or what it was, he was notably less as a defender at the position than he has been in the past.

So where do they go from here?

The big thing that the team could do is target some help on the bench. Dilson Herrera, acquired in the Jay Bruce trade, will certainly help, and he could be ready immediately in 2017, but it’d be best for sure to have more than just Herrera as back up plans. Phillips has one more season left at $14M, but he’s resisted trade moves the Reds have attempted recently, so the team may have him on the roster, and Price tends to play his guys like Phillips through thick and thin, so Phillips will have a role.

For bench guys defensively, there are few options on the free agent market, with Ruben Tejada really being the only one. The best option would be for the Reds to scan the waiver wire, Rule V draft, and the trade market for guys they could grab that would play average to above-average defense at multiple positions. Could they acquire a guy like Eduardo Escobar or Danny Santana in a move to get Ervin Santana from the Twins by adding in another prospect? That should be the type of deal they should explore this offseason.

Next: Catching

Bringing In Prospects

The Reds have been in rough shape for a few years, and one of the things Jocketty has always been known for is having depth in his minor league systems, even if he doesn’t always have a mix of elite prospects. Right now, the Reds do have a mix of both, however, and some of them will be ready for some work in 2017.

Nick Senzel was the #2 overall pick in 2016, and while he only played at low-A in 2016, he’s an advanced hitter that could move quickly in the system. Eugenio Suarez, while a solid player at third base, would make an excellent trade chip midseason if Senzel makes a push for the big leagues akin to what Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson did in 2016 the year after they were selected.

The Reds will have an open competition for their right field position, and one of the guys that should get a very long look is Jesse Winker. Winker probably isn’t going to ever be a guy who hits 30 home runs or steals 30 bases, but I would not be surprised whatsoever if he’s a guy who has a .300/.400 average/on-base slash combination for quite a while, and he plays a solid outfield. He may push Adam Duvall to right field as he’s really more of a left fielder than a right fielder. Regardless, Winker’s 23 and hit .303/.397/.384 at AAA last season with a 59/59 BB/K rate. He’s ready.

Alex Blandino was drafted in 2014 by the Reds and while many of that season’s college hitting class has made an impact in the majors, Blandino has taken more time on his way up the system. His bat has taken some time to develop at the pro level, but he is a guy with excellent defense. He has played short, second, and third in his time and showed solid defense at all three positions, though he’s probably an above-average defender on the left side of the infield and an elite defender at second base. He played well at AA in 2016 and has good leadership skills. If Cozart has another rough season of injury and Blandino’s bat picks up the way many scouts have estimated it would soon, he could end up quickly moving to the majors in 2017.

Last, but absolutely not least, is the pitching. Amir Garrett is a legit top 100 prospect as a hard-throwing athletic left-hander that should find his way to Cincinnati in 2017. There are plenty of guys who were at AA or AAA in 2016, though, that are off the top 100 radar and could make an impact in 2016. Tyler Mahle, Nick Travieso, and Rookie Davis formed the excellent Pensacola rotation in AA that had the best regular season record in the Southern League, and each has their own path to the big leagues in 2017.

The guy that really intrigues me is Keury Mella, acquired from the Giants in the Mike Leake deal in 2015, and he had a solid year with a heavy sinking fastball in the upper 90s along with a power curve that generates a ton of ground balls. He worked with the Reds and made a couple of mechanical tweaks, and while he won’t ever be a big strikeout guy, he generates a lot of weak contact and was bumped up to make a start in AAA to finish the season and work in the playoff rotation for Louisville. He has a bright future in the bullpen if the team decides that starting is not his future path as well.

On those same lines is this year’s Cuban signee, Vladimir Gutierrez, who has not pitched yet, but has been considered the strongest pitching prospect to leave Cuba in quite some time. One scout mentioned that in his view, the three guys of legit major league talent to come from Cuba in recent years on the mound all ended up in the Reds organization (Chapman and Iglesias being the others). Gutierrez could be in the majors very quickly as a reliever, or he could take a year or two to get there as a starter, but his arm talent is such that he could move quickly in the system.

Finding spots for all of these guys will be a challenge for Price, who has been notorious for favoring his veteran guys, which leads into the last issue…

Next: Lineup

Lineup Alignment

I love Billy Hamilton. I have trouble finding many people who love baseball who do not also love Billy Hamilton. He has incredible speed that is extremely fun to watch, and the fun thing as a baseball fan is that he is consistently working on his game, making big strides in center field defensively. He is not, however, a leadoff hitter. His 7.8 percent walk rate in 2016 was by far his highest rate as a professional, but it also was accompanied with his first time in his career striking out at over a 20 percent rate as well. However, Hamilton batted first or second in the lineup in 76 of his 119 games this season, and that was a drastic shift for Price.

In general, Price has eschewed modern thinking in constructing his lineup, but part of that is that he really does not have a team that would allow much for flexibility. Joey Votto was the only player on the team that accumulated 250 at bats that had an on base percentage over .325 (and his was .434!), and he was also the only player with more than 250 at bats who walked over 10 percent of his plate appearances.

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That does hurt Price’s ability to put guys to get on base at the top of the lineup (and Votto’s RBI chances for all the old-school writers who enjoy ripping him for his lack of RBI stats). He has two guys with excellent speed in Hamilton and Peraza, but Peraza really does not walk either, though he does make more contact than Hamilton, which makes him more of an ideal #2 hitter that can make consistent contact. Of course, that’s assuming Peraza has a spot to hit in the lineup.

Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall in the middle of the lineup may be guys who are not guys who walk a lot, but they’re more power-oriented guys and also don’t strike out 30 percent either, so they work in 4/5 spots in the lineup. When Mesoraco is healthy, he’s a guy who does walk at a solid rate and provides excellent power, so he’d fit well in the fourth spot in the lineup, moving Duvall and Suarez to five and six.

Next: A-Rod Enjoys Advising

So, if he would do it, ideally, the lineup that could produce best for the Reds would be one that had Winker leading off, followed by Peraza or Hamilton (depending on whether Peraza was at 2B or Phillips), Votto, Mesoraco, Duvall, Suarez, Phillips or Cozart, and then Cozart or Hamilton. Now, would Price bat Phillips seventh in the order is the question. He hit Phillips third through sixth in the lineup last season, and Phillips had a .320 OBP and .416 SLG on the team. Needless to say, the Reds could have a very productive lineup if put into the right positions, but that is an area that needs to be improved in the offseason. Short of changing managers, I’m not sure how they will do that.