MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Chicago White Sox

With the regular season over and all teams’ rosters settled for the year, it’s a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team while previewing the upcoming offseason. We continue the series with the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox had another below average season in 2016, going 78-84. The team has not had a winning season since 2012, when they still didn’t make the playoffs. Overall, the Southsiders are a mess, and the team just let manager Robin Ventura go in favor of bench coach Rick Renteria. There were two strange things about the whole process:

1. It didn’t seem Ventura even wanted to coach the Sox anymore. (It’s hard to blame him)
2. No one knows if General Manager Rick Hahn or Vice President Kenny Williams was making the calls about the managerial change.

As we covered a few days ago, there were rumors Williams time with the Sox was finally over. As Chicago fans simultaneously breathed a sigh of relief, the news came out that those rumors were false, and Williams would be back for loyal owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s team. Between Kenny Williams and Gar Forman, Reinsdorf may employ the two worst head decision makers in all of sports. While the long-time owner is much respected throughout the MLB and NBA, his loyalty has costs his team’s fans amounts of stress that should be reserved for emergency room surgeons.

There were a couple of positives this year, as Adam Eaton achieved the highest WAR (6.0) for a Sox position player since Albert Belle in 1998. Newcomer Todd Frazier was one of eight players in the MLB to eclipse 40 home runs, and Jose Abreu was scorching hot throughout the second half. On the pitching side of things, ace Chris Sale and Jose Quintana both had very good seasons, while Miguel Gonzalez and Carlos Rodon stepped up to solidify the third and fourth spots of the rotation.

The positives seemingly end there as Jimmy Rollins was awful prompting his early release, Avisail Garcia failed to step up, and the bullpen as a whole was below average, finishing 17th in the big leagues.

This offseason will be an interesting one for sure, as the team will have to decide if they should finally self off their veterans to begin a lengthy rebuild, or try to win with what they have with a few offseason additions. With their best players under contract for below market value, the team is in good position to improve if they can sort of some of their issues and add depth.

Let’s start the offseason preview and payroll analysis by taking a look at the team’s pending free agents.

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Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted

Note: Format of last part of preview changed from overall overview to recommendation of five offseason moves

Upcoming Free Agents

*Has $3 million team option for 2017, unlikely to be exercised.

Austin Jackson: After a successful four year stint to start his career with the Tigers, where he slashed .278/.344/.416 with 38 triples and 42 home runs, Jackson has struggled while bouncing around from the Mariners to the Cubs and then to the Sox. The 29-year-old could still have many good years ahead of him, but his .260/.311/.361 slash since 2014 is far from promising. Expect the Sox to have no interest in bringing the outfielder back.

Alex Avila: Another former Tiger with a solid run as a starter in the early 2010’s, Avila came to the Sox and has produced as the team’s best catcher, though in a small sample. His .732 OPS in 2016 was just below his career mark entering the season of .742. As a strong defender, 0.3 dWAR, Avila could be brought back with a one year deal worth about $3 million.

Matt Albers: Coming off an unbelievable 2015, Albers looked like a shoe-in to have his 2017 option picked up. Instead, the righty has seen high numbers fall down a cliff, and the 33-year-old will most likely not be back next year. Expect Albers to sign a minor league deal elsewhere.

Justin Morneau: The Sox gave the former MVP a very modest deal back when they still had playoff aspirations. He hit okay, about league average (100 OPS+), in 200 AB. As a hitter no longer capable of playing the field, Morneau needed a better showing to secure another contract.

Arbitration

Hitters

Todd Frazier: The lumbering third basemen will be retained by the team, even if it is for $10 million+. As a top home run hitter within the league, Frazier’s poor average is remedied by his power and average defense at the hot corner.

Brett Lawrie: Lawrie’s first season with the White Sox was a successful one, as fans admired his heart and intensity in which he plays the game. He was a useful hitter too, and will be brought back to compete for a starting infield spot.

Avisail Garcia: Dubbed by some (okay, maybe just me), as the future Miguel Cabrera, there is no doubting Garcia’s potential at the plate. For some reason, his numbers always leave something to be desired, especially considering he does not play the field well at all. Still cheap and controllable, 2017 will be Garcia’s last chance to prove he is not another Dayan Viciedo.

J.B. Shuck: After an atrocious debut season in Chicago, the Sox will be happy to say goodbye to yet another failed fourth outfielder.

Leury Garcia: As a super utility man, Garcia will get a contract, though that promises no guarantee of an MLB roster spot.

Pitchers

Jacob Turner: A former top prospect in Miami, Turner struggled with the Sox in a few starts and a good amount of relief appearances. His salary would be a minimum of $1.35 M next year, and the Sox will choose to let him go.

Zach Putnam: The righty reduced his walk rate rather significantly, enroute to a nice sub 3.00 ERA season. A raise and a spot in the bullpen will be Putnam’s this offseason.

Dan Jennings: As a very underrated left handed reliever, Jennings will receive a nice raise, and his first million dollar paycheck.

Jake Petricka: Starting his career off with three good seasons in the bullpen, Petricka will get a contract even if he missed most of 2016 due to injury.

Miguel Gonzalez: The former Oriole should see a very nice raise after being cut by Baltimore in the spring. With 23 starts of 3.73 ERA ball, Gonzalez likely made the Orioles and their ailing rotation wish he was still around. Another solid season in 2017 could set the then to be 33 year-old up for a nice multi-year deal.

Daniel Webb: Fighting back from Tommy John surgery, Webb should get a contract tendered, as he pitched 68 productive innings as recently as 2014.

Team Control

This is an area where the White Sox lack impact players. Starter Carlos Rodon and shortstop Tim Anderson look like pieces of the future, but good luck counting anyone else besides Carson Fulmer as impact players to be excited about.

Beyond Rodon and Anderson, only Tyler Saladino, Tommy Kahnle and Michael Ynoa have appeared to put themselves in position for a 2017 roster spot.

Matt Davidson could be an impact player in the future, and outfielder Charlie Tilson has defensive potential in center field.  Looking further down the list, Jason Coats does not seem to be a part of the future, and neither does infielder Carlos Sanchez.

There is a plethora of relievers under team control, and without a top tier bullpen, all should get a fair shot at a roster spot in 2017 if they perform in spring training.

The Sox do not have many exciting prospects, which is a main reason why some are calling for a rebuild. Outfielder Adam Engel and starter Spencer Adams are the closest Sox prospects to reaching the majors, but no one is pulling a Kyle Schwarber and practically forcing the team to call them up.

Final Analysis and Five Recommended Moves

With $122.02 million in cap commitments projected before free agency starts, the Sox will not have room to go for a bunch of David Price sized contracts over the winter. With a team in an interesting position of being stuck in the mid-tier of the MLB power structure, this offseason will be an interesting one to be sure. Here is five things the team must do from now until February. 

1. Restore Order in the Front Office

A simple idea, though one the baseball people on the Southside of Chicago don’t seem to understand: there must be a clear chain of command in personnel decisions. Kenny Williams has proven that he is not up for the job of managing a team’s baseball operations as evidenced by the past five-six seasons he has had as General Manager and now Vice President. Rick Hahn may be up for the challenge, but no one knows until he has a chance outside the shadow of Williams. Even if the team hires the MLB version of Matt Millen to run things, it would still be an improvement over the current circus in the Sox front office.

1. Do Not Trade Quintana or Sale

This one may be a bit controversial, especially in an offseason where the free agent pitching market is so barren. Regardless, the White Sox have a rare combination of talent at the front of their rotation that is also controllable for insanely reasonable prices for the foreseeable future. Sale and Quintana gave the Sox the only teammates to both finish in the top 10 in Fangraphs pitching WAR with scores of 5.2 and 4.8 respectively. The dynamic duo also accomplished this feat in 2014. In terms of win probability, Sale and Quintana joined Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks as the only teammates in the top eleven in win probability added in 2016.

All that being said, the Sox need to hold on to both pitchers, especially with budding superstar Carlos Rodon and the resurgent Miguel Gonzalez behind them. Chicago just has too much talent to sell, no matter what they would get in return. Top prospects are great, but they do not always pan out. The chances that Chris Sale would return a future Chris Sale are slim to none, as pitchers with 300 strikeout potential do not grow on trees.

Additionally, with Jose Abreu under contract, along with Adam Eaton and Todd Frazier, the team has a few intriguing pieces in the lineup.

Though the team only won 78 games in 2016, a comeback from losing team to a playoff squad is far from improbable. Out of the ten playoff teams this season, five failed to reach the postseason in 2015, though only one had a losing record. In 2015, five of the playoff teams did not make it into the postseason the year prior, 2014, and four had a losing record. A 10-15 game turnaround in the win column is far from unheard of.

Holding off selling a while longer is a risky proposition, and should only be done if combined with the other to do’s on this list. For example, if the current awkward regime stays in place in the front office, the team might as well sell as they are not going anywhere anyway. If order is restored, and the main baseball decision maker can complete the following moves, Chicago could see the postseason in 2017.

1. Find a Center Fielder

Adam Eaton proved he was an elite right fielder in 2016. The team would be smart to keep him there, but they have no center fielder in the system. Austin Jackson was awful, and Melky Cabrera cannot shift to the middle. Former top prospect Courtney Hawkins still has not panned out, though fellow prospect Charlie Tilson could get a shot after his 2016 campaign ended prematurely due to injury.

Instead of going with a mid-tier player like Jackson, or counting on prospects, the team must make a big move for a center fielder. So what are their options?

Yoenis Cespedes is the top outfield option, and may be the top free agent in all of baseball (if he chooses to opt out). Though a regular left fielder, Cespedes is capable of playing center and any defensive deficiencies could be mitigated by Eaton’s stellar play in right. Regardless, the Cuban outfielder seems to love New York and the Mets will do whatever they have to to get him back, likely leaving him unavailable for the ChiSox.

Another elite option would be Ian Desmond, who had a resurgent season with the Rangers in his first year in center. The former shortstop slashed a very good .285/.335/.446 with 22 long balls, and average defense in the outfield. Desmond would be a great addition for the Sox, but should not be their top option.

Instead, Dexter Fowler should be put atop of the list, as the Southsiders should do whatever they can to steal him away from their neighbors in the North. Fowler’s elite on base ability would be a welcomed asset in a lineup where patience and plate discipline is not a strong suit (23rd in MLB in BB%).

A five year deal worth $80 would be reasonable for the tall switch hitter who brought his fielding metrics up to positive levels in 2016. Fowler’s .393 OBP ranked first in all of baseball amongst outfielders not named Mike Trout. His 4.8 WAR was third to only Trout and Jackie Bradley Jr. An outfield with Fowler and his 4.8 WAR and Eaton with his 6.0 WAR could quickly turn a weakness into a strength.

1. Put James Shields on a Short Leash

Getting paid $40 million over the next two years, James Shields will be expected to get every opportunity to make good of the trade the Sox made in early June this season. Shields’ struggles have been much discussed, as his ERA of 5.85 overall this year was the worst in the MLB amongst qualified pitchers by far. His -0.9 WAR is also the worst by a wide margin, as Jered Weaver is next with a -0.2.

All this being said, Shields was an impressive 14th in WAR amongst pitchers from 2007-2015. His long track record and fat contract will give him an inside track at the fifth starting spot in 2017. Similar to this year, it is much expected that the Sox throw Shields out there every five days regardless of how he pitched.

This is not what the team should do. Instead, the team should pull a page out of Theo Epstein’s playbook and Edwin Jackson Shields if his struggles continues. Yes, $20 million is a lot. But, the team must be willing to accept their mistake and convert Shields’ salary to a sunk cost to open up starts for Carson Fulmer, Chris Beck, Spencer Adams, or anyone else who can pitch below a 5.85 ERA.

There is absolutely no value in continuing to throw a pitcher who does not have anything left. Still, Shields should get a shot next year to see if 2016 was a fluke. If that proves untrue, the team must move on ASAP.

1. Acquire a Catcher

With abundant free agent options, the Sox must go after one to become their new starting catcher. Alex Avila is an admirable backup, but not starting caliber. Young Omar Narvaez has been good since being promoted, but cannot be trusted if the White Sox truly want to make a playoff run. No more half doing a playoff push should be acceptable. If the team makes the decision not to sell, they must fill all glaring holes.

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Wilson Ramos was the top option, but his torn ACL complicates matters. He should be ruled out for the Sox to make a run to October in 2017. Instead, the team should go hard after Matt Wieters. The long time Oriole catcher has disappointed as a hitter this season, but his track record as an above average backstop is too much to ignore. Most likely free of a qualifying offer, Wieters should receive a three-four year pact worth about $40-50 million.

A wild card option would be a trade for Brian McCann. To get an idea of all catching options, consult the Braves top catching options for 2017, as many also apply to the White Sox.

Other holes to fill include relief pitching, a fourth outfielder, starting depth, and a big bat for DH. All these holes can be filled admirably within the system, as the team does not have the money to splurge on more than two players in free agency. The fourth outfielder job could go to Charlie Tilson, with Avisail Garcia as a DH and part time outfielder. Prospect Courtney Hawkins could also make an appearance next year, though he has only proved to be able to backflip.

Starting depth would not be completely needed as the team already has five controllable starters, with top prospect Carson Fulmer able to fill in if James Shields falters. For depth purposes, a buy low option like Jhoulys Chacin or Ryan Vogelsong would be a smart addition, and would only cost about $2 million.

A big bat is always a welcomed addition to a team, but is not a necessity for the Sox. The team can play Brett Lawrie and Tyler Saladino at second and third, while moving Todd Frazier to DH. Avisail Garcia will also get AB’s at designated hitter, and the Sox also like Matt Davidson, who was injured in his only game this year. The 25-year-old slashed a solid .268/.349/.444 at Triple A, and may by vying for AB next season.

Next: Cubs All Time 25 Man Roster

With the signings of Dexter Fowler, Matt Wieters and Jhoulys Chacin, the team’s payroll would increase to about $150 million. Though a rather large step up from past years, the team must be willing to spend to take advantage of the prime seasons of their best players.

Projected Roster:

C Matt Wieters                    SP Chris Sale

C Alex Avila                           SP Jose Quintana

1B Jose Abreu                      SP Carlos Rodon

IF Tyler Saladino                 SP Miguel Gonzalez

IF Brett Lawrie                    SP James Shields

SS Tim Anderson               CP David Robertson

3B Todd Frazier                  RP Dan Jennings

IF Matt Davidson               RP Tommy Kahnle

OF Melky Cabrera              RP Nate Jones

OF Dexter Fowler              RP Michael Ynoa

OF Adam Eaton                 RP Zach Putnam

OF Avisail Garcia               RP Jhoulys Chacin

OF Charlie Tilson