Detroit Tigers: What Will the Rotation Look Like in 2017?
With more candidates than spots available, the Detroit Tigers will have decisions to make when it comes to rounding out their starting rotation next spring.
Although the Detroit Tigers stayed in the playoff hunt until the very end, their year is now officially over. While the Tigers’ season may have ended in disappointment, they still bounced back nicely from a last-place finish in 2015.
Looking ahead to the 2017 campaign, the Detroit Tigers should have the talent to compete once again. Basically, they should be nearly the same team next year.
Closer Francisco Rodriguez and center fielder Cameron Maybin have team options for next season, but other than those two, backup catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and infielder Erick Aybar are the only players headed for free agency.
In 2016, the Tigers finished second in the AL with a .267 batting average, and they should have a formidable offense once again next year. The bullpen ranked near the bottom of the AL once again with a 4.22 ERA, however, so that is an area that may require some attention over the offseason.
It will also be interesting to see how the rotation shakes out. The Tigers’ starting staff combined for a 4.25 ERA this past season, which was good enough to tie the Seattle Mariners for fourth in the American League. However, there were quite a few issues at the back of the rotation. They also needed to rely quite heavily on young arms.
With a thin free agent market for starting pitching and a plethora of in-house candidates, it would hardly be shocking if the Tigers’ answers come from within. Here are the current candidates for the 2017 starting rotation.
The Big Three: Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer and Jordan Zimmermann
Going into 2017, there should be three shoo-ins for the rotation. Assuming that they are healthy, one would think that Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer and Jordan Zimmermann should each be in the starting staff.
Verlander had his best season since 2012 this year, going 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA. His 10.04 K/9 was his highest since 2009. Many expect that he will receive consideration for the AL Cy Young award. Although many thought that Verlander’s career was in decline after a rough 2014 campaign, it now appears that the Tigers have their ace back.
Fulmer had a tremendous rookie season, going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA. He was a big part of the reason why the Detroit Tigers hung around in the Wild Card chase for as long as they did. The 23-year-old right-hander was thought to be the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, though Gary Sanchez has since emerged as a serious competitor. The Tigers will need Fulmer to avoid a sophomore slump in 2017.
Although Zimmermann’s numbers suffered over an injury-ridden summer, it is important to remember that he began the season by going 5-0 with an 0.55 ERA. Next season will be year No. 2 of the five-year, $110 million deal he signed with Detroit. He is getting paid like a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, and the Tigers will need him to get back to being just that.
So, with that out of the way, what might the rest of the rotation look like? Well, here are some options.
The Lefties: Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris
In addition to Fulmer, fellow youngsters Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris contributed greatly to the Detroit Tigers’ success down the stretch.
Like Fulmer, neither pitcher began the season with the big league club, but it is tough to imagine where the Tigers would have ended up without lefties Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris. Both pitchers were acquired in the David Price trade last summer.
Boyd had a couple of rough starts, one of which was his final outing of the season when he failed to record a single out against the Kansas City Royals. That said, prior to that start he had a rather respectable 4.16 ERA. Moreover, he surrendered more than four earned runs only three times this year. His season was largely a success.
Many expected Norris to be a big part of the rotation from the get-go this season, but it didn’t quite work out that way. However, the talented southpaw found his way back to the big leagues and came on incredibly strong down the stretch. Norris ended up going 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA over 14 games (13 starts) this year.
Boyd and Norris may very well be the best choices for the final two spots in the rotation, but the Tigers still have other options as well.
The Veterans: Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey
Veteran right-handers Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey are under contract through next season, but they both woefully under-performed in 2016.
Sanchez has shined at times for the Detroit Tigers, particularly back in 2013 when he won the AL ERA title, but the past two seasons have been a different story. After going 10-10 with a 4.99 ERA in 2015, he had an even worse season this year, going 7-13 with a 5.87 ERA. Since the start of 2015, he has given up 59 home runs, the fifth most in the majors.
In the second half, Sanchez’s numbers were a hair better. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 13 games (12 starts).
When the Tigers signed Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal last offseason, many had questions from the very beginning. Those concerns were justified as Pelfrey went only 4-10 with a 5.07 ERA over 24 games (22 starts) this year. He was worth only 0.4 fWAR, the fifth-worst mark among American League starters who had thrown 100 or more innings.
Sanchez and Pelfrey are signed through next season at a cost of $16.8 and $8 million, respectively. The Tigers have a $16 million option with a $5 million buyout on Sanchez for the 2018 season.
The Tigers are in a bit of an interesting situation with these two pitchers They will need to decide if and how they fit into the puzzle going forward.
The Wild Cards: Shane Greene and Buck Farmer
Could the Detroit Tigers still explore other options for the rotation? Well, Shane Greene and Buck Farmer each have experience starting.
Back in 2014, Greene, during his rookie year, worked primarily as a starter for the New York Yankees. He had a nice season as well, going 5-4 with a 3.78 ERA over 15 games (14 starts). When he came over to the Tigers in 2015, he went 3-0 with an 0.39 ERA over his first three starts before things quickly fell apart.
In 2016, Greene began the season in the Tigers’ rotation as well. After suffering a blister injury, he later returned as a reliever and had a certain amount of success out of that role. He had a few bad outings and ended the year with an unsightly at 5.82 ERA, but he had a solid 8.80 K/9.
The results haven’t always been pretty for Greene, but many remain intrigued by his “stuff.”
While Farmer spent the majority of his time with the Tigers as a reliever this year, he was called upon to make an important start against the Cleveland Indians on September 26. He received the loss after allowing four earned runs over five innings.
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Greene and Farmer would have to be considered longshots to make the rotation, but it is worth adding their names to the mix nevertheless. Right now, Verlander, Fulmer, Zimmermann, Norris and Boyd would appear to be the best rotation, but the Tigers will have choices to make.