MLB Advanced Rookie League Affiliate Top Ten Prospects – Pioneer League, Appalachian League
MLB’s major league season is now ended, and the offseason reviews have begun. Today, we will review the top prospects that played in the advanced rookie leagues this season, the Pioneer League and the Appalachian League.
This is the second in a series of posts on the top ten prospects in each league. This series is not entirely indicative of where a player may end up in a top 100 MLB prospect list as a player may not have played long enough to be considered. There aren’t hard and fast rules here, just a general “was this guy here long enough to be considered” feel. On a short-season league, that’s probably about 40-50 plate appearances or a handful of starts. For a full-season league, it’d probably be about double that, but once again, that can be waived in general if a guy made such an impact on the league that it’s hard to ignore his impact on being part of that league.
Call to the Pen will be having a top 100 list released in the early winter, so be looking for that as well, but for now, this should whet your prospecting appetite outside of scouting reports to come on some of the top prospects in the game!
Pioneer League
1. Alec Hansen, RHP, Great Falls (White Sox) – At this time last fall, Hansen was considered a legitimate possibility for the #1 overall selection in the 2016 draft. He lost his arm slot and thus his location in the spring in college, and that caused him to drop to the second round. The White Sox worked with him, and he really showed that he was absolutely the guy everyone thought he cold be last fall, flashing a fastball that climbed into the upper 90s along with a wicked slider, a curve that showed plus in his pro time, and he dominated hitters, striking out 59 in only 37 innings in the Pioneer League on the year.
2. Riley Pint, RHP, Grand Junction (Rockies) – Pint was picked #4 in the 2016 draft by the Rockies, and after being featured in Jeff Passan’s “The Arm” book this summer, everyone knew about his high-end velocity. Pint definitely flashed that, but what sets Pint apart from most high school hard throwers is that he can throw an elite curve ball and a plus change. One of the things he struggles with right now is simply being consistent in his approach in all situations, but he has an elite repertoire that will be fun to track.
3. Lucas Erceg, 3B, Helena (Brewers) – Some issues with grades and reported “personality” red flags bumped Erceg from a first-round talent to being selected in the second round. He was a tremendous hitter in college, and he didn’t slow down once he hit Helena, slashing .400/.452/.552 before being promoted. Erceg has excellent spray power to all fields, and he’ll be a guy that could put the ball over the fence much more easily as he fills out into his frame. He has an excellent arm at third and can stay there just fine as well. The thing that really surprised many, including me, was how well Erceg ran in his pro debut, using high-level baseball smarts to steal eight bases versus one caught stealing even though Erceg has what I would grade as below-average speed.
4. Taylor Trammell, OF, Billings (Reds) – One of the most raw talents in the draft, Trammell was rumored as high as the early first round based on his raw tools, but fell down to the Reds in the second round for an over slot bonus. He came out and showed the incredible combination of power and speed in his athletic frame. He is an excellent defender that could be just fine in center but elite in left. Trammell hit 17 extra base hits and stole 24 bases on the year while putting up a .374 OBP. He did strike out at a very high rate, and that’s part of that raw skill set that will be brought along slowly, but Trammell certainly showed to be a very good value in the second round for the Reds.
5. D.J. Peters, OF, Ogden (Dodgers) – Quite arguably the biggest steal of day 2 of the 2016 draft, Peters was snapped out in the 4th round out of Western Nevada Community College by the Dodgers, and the 6’6, 225-pound outfielder came into the Pioneer League and showed his incredible athleticism and power. He tallied 40 extra base hits in just 262 at bats, but he’s not just a big plodder as he has very good speed, though it does take him a few steps to get to top speed, so he’ll likely never be a big base stealer. He showed good pitch recognition with 35 walks in his time in the PL as well. He’s a right field profile with his significant size, but he’s a guy who hits for good average to go along with his big power, something extremely rare to find.
6. Tony Santillan, RHP, Billings (Reds) – I’ve seen Santillan twice, and I caught bad games, but the reports I’ve received from others indicate that he could certainly rate much higher on this list. He has high-end velocity as he tops out over triple digits with his fastball, has a hard-biting slider and showed better movement on his change this year. I saw his arm slot all over the place, but he had much better luck keeping that arm slot in the Pioneer League, leading to 46 strikeouts in 39 innings, and more importantly only 16 walks over those same innings. He’s got a very high floor as a back-end reliever.
7. T.J. Friedl, OF, Billings (Reds) – This may be one of the more intriguing stories of the year. Friedl was absolutely missed in the draft. He was a redshirt sophomore for Nevada that hit .401 on the season, which would almost certainly earn a draft spot in the summer draft, but for some reason teams never registered that he was draft-eligible! While playing with Team USA this summer, the Reds were clued into this and approached Friedl. Due to their high bonus pool, they had the cash to sway him, paying him a bonus equivalent to an early 3rd round draft selection. He started late, but his bat never stopped once he got to the Pioneer League, as he slashed .347/.423/.545 over 121 at bats. He is a guy who profiles as a leadoff hitter and above average center fielder defensively.
8. Jahmai Jones, OF, Orem (Angels) – Very toolsy athlete that had a very positive season in the Pioneer League before having a rough introduction to the Midwest League. Jones is a guy who could be a very solid corner outfielder, but he has the athleticism to play center if he continues to work on his reads off the ball. He flashed both power and speed in the Pioneer League, but what was most impressive in his time in the Pioneer was his 21/29 BB/K rate over 196 at bats, showing the maturity in his approach that has come in the last season for the 2015 2nd round pick out of Georgia.
9. Keibert Ruiz, C, Ogden (Dodgers) – Ruiz was the youngest player in the Pioneer League this season in just his second year as a professional after signing as an international free agent in 2014 for $140K. The Dodgers are finding that they could have netted a bargain with that signing as he has exceptional defensive skills already and his bat is way ahead of most catchers at the same stage. A switch-hitter, Ruiz is more contact than power at this point, but his build also doesn’t really lead to a ton of power right now. As he fills out, his excellent contact skills could allow his power numbers to increase as well. He had a great line in Ogden, slashing .354/.393/.503, pounding the gaps with 18 doubles and two triples in just 189 at bats.
10. Gilbert Lara, SS, Helena (Brewers) – Lara was a major money signing two summers ago in the international market, but he’s struggled to produce since. Lara has had no struggles on the defensive side, as he’s viewed as an elite defender whose biggest issue could be getting too big in some eyes to stay at shortstop, in spite of his ability to handle the position. Lara’s bat, however, has yet to fully develop, though it flashes for sure. He has raw power that indicates a possible 15-25 home run hitter as he fills out, yet he’s athletic enough that he could also steal double-digit bases, but he needs to get better at pitch recognition to make those things happen.
Next: Appalachian League
Appalachian League
1. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B, Bluefield (Blue Jays) – His obvious name value could get him plenty of recognition wherever he goes, but Guerrero has consistently shown that he has tremendous reason to be noted on his own merits. He had excellent pitch recognition as a 17-year-old in the Appy League, flashing a 33/35 BB/K rate over 236 at bats. He has excellent power/speed combo tools as well, with eight home runs and 15 stolen bases. He’s still working on his defense at third as he moved there in fall instructs last season, but he made big strides there, with some scouts calling him an above-average defender now.
2. Kolby Allard, LHP, Danville (Braves) – After a rough few starts with Rome, Allard came to Danville once their season opened, and Appy League hitters wished he would have stayed away. The Braves 2015 1st round selection put up video game numbers in his five starts in the league, with a 1.32 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over 27 innings. He has shown a solid fastball and a ridiculous curve that is a certain plus pitch. His change made big strides this year and really played well off of the fastball, giving right-handed hitters fits.
3. Adrian Rondon, SS, Princeton (Rays) – While his numbers may not blow anyone away, Rondon was the #1 international prospect in 2014’s IFA market, and he showed that his talent is absolutely legit as an 18-year-old. Rondon needs to work on his swing and shorten up in two-strike situations, but he flashed big time power, hitting seven home runs in 193 at bats while showing the type of actions and range to stay at shortstop, though he has a wide shoulder and hip base that many feel will move him to third eventually.
4. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Elizabethton (Twins) – One of my favorite high-school hitters in the 2016 draft, Kirilloff established himself quickly with the Twins advanced rookie league, and very well could end up with an argument as the team’s #1 prospect after prospect graduations this season. He hit .306/.341/.454 while flashing excellent power and very impressive corner outfield defense, something he wasn’t noted for in pre-draft season. He has a very smooth left-handed power swing that he already has a feel for shortening in two-strike situations for contact, an advanced approach for an 18-year-old.
5. Blake Rutherford, OF, Pulaski (Yankees) – Highly regarded coming out of high school, many downplayed Rutherford in draft season due to his advanced age for a high school player as he was 19 when he was drafted. He had a ton of production with Pulaski, hitting .382/.440/.618 over 89 at bats, though he did strike out 24 times in those 89 at bats. He does have a more line drive swing than a power swing, and at his build, he’s likely going to need to make some adjustments. Rutherford is also most likely to be an average corner outfielder as he has a below-average arm in the outfield.
6. Estevan Florial, OF, Pulaski (Yankees) – Florial was part of a big scandal regarding illegal birth certificates and held back from signing for a year, when the Yankees grabbed him even within their spending limits. They’re laughing all the way to an elite tool prospect now. Florial has incredible raw tools with a power tool that could grade as high as 65-70 and speed tool that has been rated as a pure 70 at this time. He did strike out plenty, showing how raw he still is, but the tools are incredible here, and Florial should be a guy to definitely have on your prospect radar going forward.
7. Ian Anderson, RHP, Danville (Braves) – Anderson was the #3 overall draft pick, and while he’ll likely rate higher than some ahead of him here when overall lists come out, Anderson was a bit worn down when he got to Danville, and he showed with a bit of struggles with location. Anderson was really under-the-radar for many before the draft due to not pitching a ton in the spring in high school, but the Braves were on him hard, and he’s shown them right as he’s thrown mid-90s with his fastball, with an excellent tilt to his breaking ball, and good feel for a change.
8. Cristian Pache, OF, Danville (Braves) – The Braves traded away a number of prospects last summer to acquire signing slots to sign Pache and Derian Cruz. While both Cruz and Pache played well at GCL in their pro debuts, upon promotion, Cruz (not surprisingly) fell off, yet Pache actually improved his on-field performance! Pache has excellent defensive ability with a cannon of an arm that tallied nine assists from the outfield in only 55 games. Pache shows excellent contact ability in spite of a long bat path due to an ability to keep the bat in the zone for quite a while. He isn’t a guy who profiles with big power, but he’s graded with 70-80 speed on the scouting scale, and he uses that well to track down balls in the outfield and to take extra bases when he gets the ball into the gaps.
9. Yennsy Diaz, RHP, Bluefield (Blue Jays) – Signed in 2014 out of the Dominican Republic, Diaz has been a guy who has never really produced on the field in the same way that he scouts due to his grades. Diaz’s 5.79 ERA and 1.54 WHIP would certainly turn no heads, but after receiving a cell phone video (seriously) from a scout, I got this report, “The heavist (sic) fastball I’ve seen all year. Jumps forward at times, leading to inconsistent landing spot, hurting his curve. Curve is hard sinking curve when on. Change has wicked arm side movement.” That level of report got me very excited, and then I watched the video, and I watched two very good hitters look completely fooled by his change, which is certainly his third pitch. I could be showing some personal bias here, but I’m a fan.
10. Josh Lowe, 3B, Princeton (Rays) – He and Pache both appeared on the GCL list as well, and Lowe struggled a bit more with contact in his promotion to the Appy League, but he showed solid pitch recognition still, having a .360 OBP in his time in the league. He was considered the best defensive third baseman in the league by the scouts I’ve talked with, and his power was certainly present, even though the contact issues did not allow him to tap into it as much. He should be a guy with at least a 60 future power grade, and in what I’ve seen, I’d be inclined to go to the 65 point on his power grade.
Next up will be the short-season Class A leagues, the Northwest League and the New York-Penn League, so look forward to those!