MLB Playoffs: Predicting the Nationals-Dodgers Divisional Series

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Enough with these win-or-go-home Wild Card games. Now we are getting set for the MLB playoffs divisional round. Five-game series that feature some great matchups, including what will be an interesting battle between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

While the one-game Wild Card round is fun and exciting, they are really difficult to predict. In fact, the MLB playoffs in general are tough to project. However, with the divisional round being a best-of-three series it’s a little bit easier to stack up the rosters and select a winner.

It may be the postseason, but it’s still baseball, albeit a different type of baseball. Just because the Los Angeles Dodgers finished a few games behind the Washington Nationals during the regular season by no means signals that they are a huge underdog. In fact, ESPN’s stable of baseball pundits have predicted that Vin Scully’s final year with the team will continue to the NLCS, even though he won’t actually be calling the games (what a class act).

But I digress… With the scene being set and the pitching matchups coming a bit more into fruition, this breakdown will analyze how each team sizes up against each other on a game by game basis, because you really only have to be the better team on a given day just three times to advance.

How will the likes of Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark fair against the hot bats of the Dodgers? Which premier closer do you trust more late in the game? What about the Nationals injuries and Clayton Kershaw‘s postseason struggles, how will that affect this series? I will attempt to answer these questions and eventually decide what team will get a step closer to the Fall Classic.

Nationals Roster (Projected)

Starting Pitchers

Max Scherzer
Tanner Roark
Gio Gonzalez
Joe Ross

Bullpen

Mark Melancon (Closer)
Shawn Kelley
Blake Treinen
Sammy Solis
Marc Rzepczynski
Matt Belisle
Reynaldo Lopez
Oliver Perez

Starting Lineup

Bench

Clint Robinson 1B/OF
Chris Heisey OF
Ben Revere OF
Stephen Drew 2B

Dusty Baker is in a little bit of a tricky situation here. His team is not healthy right now, which makes for some pretty difficult choices. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, the team’s two best hitters are question marks because of injury. In fact, their MVP caliber second baseman just returned from an 11 day absence on October 2. Harper has been able to fight through his injury, but his play has definitely been effected because it’s clear that he is not 100 percent.

This could lead Dusty Baker to adding another hitter to help ensure that he’s covered if something unforeseen would force either of his middle of the order bats to miss time in the series. This is why Ben Revere makes the roster. He has a track record even though he has not been an everyday player like the Nationals may have expected. Still, his speed could be a game-changer if the club needs a run late in the game.

The rotation looks fairly set at this point even though I’m sure the Nats would love to have Stephen Strasburg penciled in for a start. Unfortunately that’s just not in the cards right now, however the rotation is still led by Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark, whose ERAs are both under 3.00.

Relief pitching is the real question when it comes to arms as Dusty Baker has some tough choices to make here as well. Which pitcher does he leave off the roster if he goes with a five man bench? Which lefty relievers does he go with? I decided that the veteran Oliver Perez will be chosen over the likes of Sean Burnett and Yusmeiro Petit because he’s just made more appearances this season and has a longer track record.

Overall, the Nationals are led by their rotation and need at least some contributions from their stars if they want to win this series.

Dodgers Roster

Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw
Rich Hill
Kenta Maeda
Julio Urias

Bullpen

Starting Lineup

Bench

Howie Kendrick IF/OF
Carlos Ruiz C
Austin Barnes C/IF
Yasiel Puig RF
Andre Ethier OF
Charlie Culberson IF

Meet the Los Angeles Dodgers! Where former middle of the order hitters Howie Kendrick, Andre Eithier, Carlos Ruiz and most surprisingly Yasiel Puig do not start. Yet, while their starting lineup may be a bit of a shocker if you looked at what the team had in March, its current construction is probably the best option.

Andrew Toles has seemingly come out of nowhere to hit for a .314 batting average in 48 games. Chase Utley has found his stroke again after a tough 2015 season too. He’s hitting a solid .252 with 14 homers. General manager Andrew Friedman is also starting to see the Josh Reddick he thought he would get when he traded for the former Oakland Athletic right before the trade deadline. The only issue that I have with this lineup overall is that it is lefty stacked, even though the Dodgers do have a couple of capable right-handed bats on the bench.

When Clayton Kershaw was on the disabled list, it seemed like a light flicked on for this team and I really don’t know how that makes sense. Manager Dave Roberts has done a tremendous job piecing together his rotation with Triple-A starters in order to maintain the team’s great play over the past few months of the season. Kenley Jansen and the bullpen have also thrown much better than expected, which helped the club get through some rough outings from their starting pitchers.

Now with their Cy Young winner back and trade acquisition Rich Hill making consistent starts, the Dodgers seem better positioned than ever for a run, but will they be able to get by a Nationals, who still are extremely talented and have home field advantage? Let’s take a look at who moves on in the MLB playoffs.

Game 1 (Max Scherzer vs. Clayton Kershaw)

Whew… this pitching matchup is truly a gift from the baseball gods. Actually, the National League side of the MLB playoffs is going to give us a great number of postseason starting rotation duels.

Both starters are probably the two best pitchers in the NL when looking at the entire season as a whole. Scherzer will probably win the Cy Young, but he’s facing a guy that was running away with the honor until he went on the shelf for an extended period. Here’s how I see this game playing out.

Expect a lot of swings and misses in the early goings as both lineups look to get a feel for what each pitcher has that day. I’m expecting that Scherzer and Kershaw have their A game on, even though the latter has had his troubles in October. Both starters should make it through the first six innings without much damage, which sets up for a classic finish late in the ballgame.

Kershaw has not been accustomed to shouldering the load and a few tough at bats will force his pitch counts to go higher than Dave Roberts probably wants…this is when the Nationals will do their damage.

At some point in the seventh or eighth inning one of the Nationals middle of the order guys will get a little bit of a rally going against a guy not named Kenley Jansen. This run should be enough for the Nationals underrated duo of Shawn Kelley and Mark Melancon to hold the lead at home in the late innings, even though the Dodgers will not go down without scaring Washington fans a little bit.

Final Score Prediction: 3-2 Nationals

Game 1 MVP: Max Scherzer

Game 2 (Tanner Roark vs. Rich Hill)

This may not be the pitching matchup that we saw in Game 1, but it’s still a very good sequel. I’ll call it the battle of the unknown aces. Tanner Roark has sat quietly behind both Strasburg and Scherzer for this entire season collecting a 2.83 ERA and an impressive 5.5 WAR. Rich Hill has been often bothered by a blister, but when he’s been able to take the mound he’s been nearly unhittable. The 36-year-old left hander pitched to a combined 2.12 ERA with the Athletics and Dodgers. His ERA has actually been better (1.83) in his starts in LA. His strikeouts come from his outstanding curveball as he’s missed bats at a rate of 10.5 K’s per nine innings.

However, unlike last game I expect that both of these pitchers will run into some trouble early. Even though both teams’ pitching gets a lot of the headlines, their offenses still are more than capable of putting up crooked numbers. Expect a blast for both sides at some point in the game. Hill and Roark should settle down to finish with a solid, albeit unspectacular outing. It’s so tough to predict which player will get a hold of one, but I’ll go with Josh Reddick to deliver a three run blast because he’s been hitting much better in the month of September.

Both lineups have broken out somewhat after facing the aces of the staff in the first game of their series and it will come down to the pen once again. However, Joe Blanton and a combination of some other relievers will get the ball to Kenley Jansen with the lead in the ninth inning, and when the Dodgers’ 29-year-old closer gets the ball it’s probably over. It’s another game decided late, but this time the visiting team will hold on and go back to Los Angeles with the series all tied up.

Final Score Prediction: 4-3 Dodgers

Game 2 MVP: Josh Reddick

Game 3 (Kenta Maeda vs. Gio Gonzalez)

This is my prediction for the shootout contest of the series. Gio Gonzalez and especially Kenta Maeda have had their moments, but there are concerns about how they are going to pitch in the MLB playoffs.

When the Nationals acquired Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics in 2012 the lefty was a potential top of the rotation guy, and while the transition from Oakland Coliseum to any other park is sure to cause some regression, the 31-year-old has to be somewhat disappointing to General Manager Mike Rizzo. In 2016, Gonzalez has been flat out average. His ERA sits in the mid 4.00s with his FIP being slightly better at 3.76. His walk to strikeout ratio remains good, but what’s killing him is that he’s allowing a home run per every start he makes. This will come into play here. Los Angeles may be stacked with lefties but the middle of the order is still good enough hitters to put up some runs early. Gonzalez will run into trouble in short order and be forced into a quick exit.

On the other hand, Maeda has somewhat exceeded expectations this season. Said to project as a middle of the rotation starter coming from the Japanese League, the 28-year-old has been a savior for LA this season. There are always questions about the durability of foreign pitchers, but he’s impressed in that area making over 30 starts in 2016. His numbers are good across the board and his ability to strike out hitters has been a bit surprising given that he averaged mostly seven to eight putouts per nine innings in Japan. He’s now forcing swings and misses at a rate of over one per inning. However, Maeda will run into trouble in this new playoff atmosphere. He’s had a couple of blow up moments this season and while I think he goes longer than Gonzalez, it still won’t be a typical start for the right hander.

With all this being said, game three will be a wire to wire victory for the Dodgers. After getting ahead early with a crooked number against Gonzalez, the Nationals just won’t be able to catch up for the rest of the game.

Final Score Prediction: 8-6 Dodgers

Game 3 MVP: Adrian Gonzalez (Multi-hit game, couple of RBI)

Game 4 (Julio Urias vs. Joe Ross)

Now this is a battle between a couple of unpredictable starting pitchers. For the Nationals, Joe Ross has been injured for most of the summer and just returned to action this month. His numbers are good, but Dusty Baker is probably not to sure what he’s going to get from the 23-year-old.

For Los Angeles, it was expected that they would promote one of the best prospects in baseball at some point this season. Dave Roberts just probably didn’t hope that he’s have to make his debut because of an injury to his ace. Urias made his first start when he was a teenager and things didn’t go so well for the team’s top farmhand. He’s since turned 20 and has been better as of late, even though the Dodgers probably hoped that Scott Kazmir would be healthy enough to make this start. Urias has a ton of talent, but the only problem is that he’s not been stretched out this year, so I’m figuring that Roberts will go to the pen early in this one.

With so much uncertainty, it’ll be tough to project either starter going more than five innings. The surprise is that both will live up to their talent and be able to keep the other lineup from doing any serious damage while they are in the game.

But unlike game two of the NLDS matchup, I’m projecting the Nationals to get to one of the Dodgers long relief men with a couple of hits from some of their better hitters. Impressive rookie Trea Turner can impact the game in so many ways and he will help Washington get on the board with both his bat and his speed at some point in the series so why not now? The Dodgers may be at home, but the Nats will thwart any sort of rally as a big inning jolts them ahead to a win or go home game in the nation’s capitol.

Final Score Prediction: 6-2 Nationals

Game 4 MVP: Trea Turner

Game 5 (Max Scherzer vs. Clayton Kershaw)

We’ll close with the way we started the series. It’s with another classic duel between some of the game’s top arms. There will be some thought from Dave Roberts to throw Kershaw in game four on short rest, but being that Kershaw has been hurt, he won’t take that chance. Scherzer is a guy that lives for the big moment, but hasn’t really ever proved he can win in a game seven situation being that he was covered by Justin Verlander for most of his tenure with the Tigers. While Kershaw will go up against legacy in this series finale as he tries to shed the idea that he is not a “winner” in the postseason. So who will prevail?

More from Call to the Pen

Similar to the first game of the series, Kershaw will come out firing on all cylinders and give his team an early lead after the Dodgers lineup surprisingly gets to Scherzer early in the game while the ace finds his stuff. However, eventually the potential Cy Young winner does regain momentum and will pitch into the seventh inning allowing nothing but that small rally. For Kershaw, some of his recent postseason mishaps have come late in games, but this transgression may not necessarily be his fault.

After blanking the Nats for about six innings, Roberts will push his star lefty to try and go one more wanting to avoid what happened in opening game. Unfortunately for his club, Kershaw isn’t as built up as he normally is and stamina gets to him here. The bottom of the Nats order is able to muster some hits to put runners on board and I’m expecting one of the team’s better hitters to come through when it counts. Daniel Murphy has hit both righties and lefties, so Kershaw’s same side delivery won’t faze him in a critical moment.

This burst will give Washington the lead just in time to get it to their all star closer who has only blown one save during his time in D.C. Ultimately Melancon comes through leaving the Dodgers manager and ace to wonder what could have been in what was a very resilient and impressive season.

Final Score Prediction: 4-2 Nationals

Game 5 MVP: Daniel Murphy

Next: Top 10 Pioneer & Appalachian League Prospects

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