MLB: To Hell with Leverage Index, it’s the Playoffs!
Orioles manager Buck Showalter played by the book and saved his closer, costing him from moving on in the MLB playoffs. Indians manager Terry Francona, on the other hand, is up 2-0 over the Red Sox because of his outside-the-box approach.
It’s the bottom of the fifth inning in a MLB playoff game and your starter has just exited the game after allowing the tying run to score. There are two outs and runners on first and third. With your opponent’s No. 5 hitter stepping to the plate, who do you call on to take the mound? Your closer, who just finished putting together the greatest season ever by a reliever, or another arm from your typically reliable bullpen?
For Orioles manager Buck Showalter, this seemed like a no-brainer. He didn’t want to burn Zach Britton early, because they wouldn’t have him available later in the ninth if the game was on the line. The leverage index, a statistic that attempts to determine the level of pressure a hitter/pitcher faces in a particular situation, screamed save Britton for later. It was only the fifth inning and Baltimore would have plenty of chances to score later in the game.
Now how about this scenario? It’s the top of the fifth inning in a playoff game and your starter has just exited the game after allowing a home run that brought your opponent to within one run. There are two outs and the bases are empty, but your opponent’s No. 2 is up next. Should you go with your closer, who happens to be the best reliever in the American League not named Britton, or another arm from your typically reliable bullpen?
In this situation, your team’s leverage index is even lower than the situation Showalter faced. You’re up by a run and have even more chances to score if your opponent manages to tie it up or take the lead. Indians manager Terry Francona went against everything the numbers said, however, putting in All-Star Andrew Miller to face the heart of the Red Sox lineup. Miller got out of the inning, then set down five straight until he was pulled in the seventh.
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While the decision not to put Britton in for that situation wasn’t Showalter’s biggest mistake that night, his inability to shake off conventional thinking and treat the MLB Wild Card Game like the elimination game that it is was what put the nail in his coffin. He refused to put Britton in the game because as a closer, it is his job to pitch in the highest leverage situations possible. The only problem for the Orioles was that situation never came about. Baltimore never entered an inning with the lead, leaving Britton in the bullpen while streaky starter Ubaldo Jimenez punched the Blue Jays a ticket to the ALDS.
Francona took a very different approach to his usage of Miller. He understood that as a playoff game, every run means so much more than the regular season. Cleveland was going to use Miller at some point in the ballgame, why not when the middle of the order was due up? With Cody Allen (let’s call him the Indians’ equivalent of Darren O’Day) able to handle ninth inning duties himself, the right choice suddenly seems blatantly obvious.
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This is the MLB playoffs. If it’s a one-run ballgame, you want the best pitcher available on the mound. Runs count the same in the fifth inning as they do in the ninth. Terry Francona knows this, and that’s why his team is one win away from clinching a spot in the ALCS. Buck Showalter probably knows it now too, but he’s going to have to wait until next year before giving it another go.