Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Acquisition Targets

Starting Pitching

The Philadelphia Phillies are presumably going to offer Hellickson a Qualifying Offer, which will be right around $16.7M. That’s a heck of a one-year salary for a player that was coming off a down year before Matt Klentak took a chance on him. Whether or not the right-hander accepts the offer, and that huge one-year salary, will be the big question. With the CBA set to expire not long after the World Series, there have been whispers that there could be some tweaks made to the way Qualifying Offers and draft pick compensation are handled in free agency, so that figure could potentially end up being lower.

If I was the Phillies, I’d be hoping that he rejects the offer, but potentially comes back to the table to talk about a multi-year deal worth a little extra scratch overall. If Hellickson were to reject the offer and sign elsewhere, the Phillies would get a draft pick in the Supplemental Round of the 2017 June Draft.

If Hellickson signs, that would (barring further injuries) leave the Phils rotation with Nola, Velasquez, Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff with the fifth spot remaining an open competition between Adam Morgan, Charlie Morton (if both sides agree to pick up his mutual option), Alec Asher, Zach Eflin and potentially Jake Thompson, though Thompson will likely need more time in the minor leagues. One would get a spot in the rotation, another in the bullpen, and the rest would likely be on their way back to the minors.

If Hellickson doesn’t re-join the Phillies, then there are some buy-low candidates that will be on the free agent market this winter that could be intriguing.

Injuries have derailed him in recent seasons, but C.J. Wilson, if healthy, would likely be willing to sign with a team on an incentive laden contract. Adding Wilson, whose ground ball rate is higher than the average Phillie starter, while his HR/FB rate has consistently been below ten percent throughout his career, could be a gamble worth taking given his success in the past. Wilson has a career 3.74 ERA and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in 2016. There won’t be many teams lining up for his services, and if the Phillies were to sign him, he could be an intriguing deadline trade chip.

If the Phillies are looking for a starting option to last more than a season, Ivan Nova would be another intriguing option to consider, as he pitched well with the Pirates after a midseason trade from New York. In eleven starts, Nova put up a 3.06 ERA (2.62 FIP)  and walked three batters in 64 2/3 innings. Nova would be a little risky, because that success could have come at the hands of “pitcher whisperer” Ray Searage in Pittsburgh, and the two aren’t a package deal.

There are no aces on the market this offseason, so adding a pitcher could take a trade. In that regard, Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox is similar to Hellickson at the time of his acquisition: Down year in 2016, one year left on his contract and has had success in the past. Buchholz has a team option at $13.5M for 2017, so the Sox could pick that up and look to trade him, or just cut ties with him altogether.

Alex Cobb is another pitcher that has one year left on his contract, but he struggled in his return (22 innings) from Tommy John surgery this past year.