MLB: Eastern, Southern, Texas Leagues Top Prospects
MLB’s major league season is now ended, and the offseason reviews have begun. Today, we will review the top prospects that played in the AA leagues this season, the Eastern League, the Southern League, and the Texas League.
This is the sixth in a series of posts on the top ten prospects in each league. This series is not entirely indicative of where a player may end up in a top 100 MLB prospect list as a player may not have played long enough to be considered. There aren’t hard and fast rules here, just a general “was this guy here long enough to be considered” feel. On a short-season league, that’s probably about 40-50 plate appearances or a handful of starts. For a full-season league, it’d probably be about double that, but once again, that can be waived in general if a guy made such an impact on the league that it’s hard to ignore his impact on being part of that league.
Call to the Pen will be having a top 100 list released in the early winter, so be looking for that as well, but for now, this should whet your prospecting appetite outside of scouting reports to come on some of the top prospects in the game!
Eastern League
1. Yoan Moncada, IF, Portland (Red Sox) – The top prospect in the game currently, Moncada began making his transition to third base while with Portland. He also did some work with his swing that led to some impressive power, but he also added swing and miss as part of it as well. As seen in his major league call up, that swing and miss bit him hard when he faced big league pitching. He was able to produce 11 home runs in just 177 at bats in Portland. If you have a chance, take a look at Moncada in the Arizona Fall League to get an idea of the player he could be. Various games have been available via mlb.com and will be throughout the AFL season.
2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Portland (Red Sox) Benintendi would likely have a statement as the top prospect in any system other than Boston, where he’s got Moncada in front of him. Benintendi would be a center fielder with any other organization, and he has the power and the speed to be a potential 20/20 guy with exceptional bat path to be a high-average hitter as well.
3. David Dahl, OF, Hartford (Rockies) – In one of the most loaded league lists, Dahl’s one of six or seven players on this Eastern League list that have a legit shot to be top 10 prospects in the entire league. Dahl made his way to the major league level this season, and he has the ridiculous offensive skill set that should play in Colorado to allow Dahl to put up ideo game numbers. His bat-to-ball skills are underrated by many, but Dahl certainly has the look of a guy who could be a routine .300 hitter, especially in Colorado. Dahl gets the nod barely over Meadows with his excellent blend of power and speed that is major league ready right now, as evidenced by his play while in Colorado.
4. Austin Meadows, OF, Altoona (Pirates) – Meadows had a fracture in the bone surrounding his eye that delayed the start of his season, but when he was on the field, Meadows was ridiculously good. He had a slash line of .311/.365/.611 with 8 triples, 6 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 167 at bats. He has a very good feel for center field, but he also has enough arm to move to right field if the Pirates loaded outfield requires it. His injury history and strikeout rate are the only things holding me back from having him a notch or even two higher.
5. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harrisburg (Nationals) – Arguably the top pitcher in the entire 2012 draft before Tommy John surgery his senior year of high school, Giolito has been handled very carefully by the Nationals in his progression through the minor leagues. He has an incredible blend of pitches that would show him as an elite prospect, but his control in 2016 took a step back, and he was hit hard at the major league level. Still, it’s hard to deny the arsenal Giolito possesses with a fastball that can flirt with triple digits, a plus curve, and a change that receives a scattering of plus grades.
6. Amed Rosario, SS, Binghamton (Mets) – Having Rosario over Crawford will surprise many, but watching him play showed exactly what you want to see from a shortstop with his skill set. He showed incredibly elite defense at both high-A and with Binghamton. However, as he was being promoted, he made a notable effort to let pitches out of the zone, especially outside and out of the zone, go during at bats, as he frequently was swinging through them. This improved his walk rate significantly, and that rate maintained at AA, though his strikeout rate did go up as Rosario got a little pull-happy and swung through pitches trying to launch them. Even with that, he still hit .341/.392/.481 in 214 AA at bats as a 20 year old, so there’s a lot to like and a very bright future here.
7. J.P. Crawford, SS, Reading (Phillies) – Crawford was highly rated by many sources, but frankly, I’m not entirely sold on the bat skills. He has definite defensive ability, and his time in the Eastern League showed an excellent on base, but he seemed extremely passive in games I saw of him. He also had a bat habit of “shooting his hips” early in his swing, which meant that when he made contact, he only had his wrists to generate power, and with his frame, he should be able to generate more power than he’s shown. All that said, he’s still a high-end defender, but he’s taken a step back for me as the bat simply hasn’t progressed as he’s moved up and matured.
8. Clint Frazier, OF, Akron (Indians) – Frazier was tearing up the Eastern League before he was traded to the Yankees. He played right field as Zimmer handled center for Akron, but he could handle center quite well. His plus arm does profile Frazier in right field going forward. Frazier has easy plus power, which I heard a few grades of plus-plus on from scouts that saw him with Akron this year, and above-average speed. He’ll be a guy who provides a blend of power and speed early in his career before likely settling in as a right-handed power bat from a corner outfield spot.
9. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Harrisburg (Nationals) – Some that saw both this season stated that Lopez was more impressive than Giolito with Harrisburg, and it’s not surprising when you look at the stats. Lopez had 100 strikeouts in 76 innings and a .235 average against. His fling motion in his arm generates a ton of velocity, peaking at triple digits, but he also brings a very effective change. Lopez is still developing feel on his breaking pitch, and he showed above-average results in the pitch at times. If Lopez can hold himself back in his speed through his delivery, he’ll be able to be elite. He’s got elite reliever downside if he can’t make it as a starter.
10. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Akron (Indians) – While the attention was rightfully on Frazier’s raw skills, Zimmer was the one putting up counting stats, as he had 14 home runs and 33 stolen bases in just 340 at bats before he moved up to AAA. Zimmer does struggle with lefty pitchers to some degree, but Zimmer’s an elite defender with an ability to completely dominate against right-handed pitching, so as he works out his issues with lefties, he should provide plenty enough value to play on a daily basis.
Next: Southern League
Southern League
1. Dansby Swanson, SS, Mississippi (Braves) – The Derek Jeter comps get thrown around a lot on Swanson, but they’re quite apt. Swanson is a high-smarts sort of player on the field with across the board high-end skills offensively with elite pitch recognition already. While he started to wear down a bit at the end of his time with Mississippi, he was still the field general defensively for the Braves before he was called up to Atlanta and had an excellent run to finish the regular season.
2. Ozzie Albies, IF, Mississippi (Braves) – There is a legit argument for Albies to be ranked above Swanson, and many will be surprised to hear that. Albies has a smaller build, which seems to get an automatic lower grade on his power, but he had a tremendous power bat, and he’s shown that all along in his minor league career, so it shouldn’t be surprising people still. Many compare him offensively to Jose Altuve, and now that he’s moved to second base, the similarity is even more striking. He and Swanson should give Braves fans plenty to cheer about for years to come up the middle.
3. Willy Adames, SS, Montgomery (Rays) – Adames has flashed plus power in his strong build while sticking at short. He has over-the-fence power to the pull side and gap power when he goes the other way, and it showed up in 48 extra base hits in 486 at bats. Adames did increase his walk rate substantially in 2016, which is a big help for his future projection. Adames is already average-ish in his range at short, but he does field the position very well and has an above-average arm, so he could stay at shortstop, especially in the Rays system that works around defensive skills at the shortstop position very well.
4. Tyler O’Neill, OF, Jackson (Mariners) – O’Neill was seen as a guy with a big power bat, but a big strikeout rate coming into 2016, but with the change in organizational philosophy that came in the new upper management, O’Neill worked hard on his pitch recognition, and by the end of the season, he was absolutely elite in his ability to simply watch pitches out of the zone. He still struck out plenty, but it was more in part of his aggressive swing once he did swing rather than due to poor recognition that he was having in the past. O’Neill won’t ever win awards for his defense, but he’s a legit middle-of-the-order bat that can pass in a corner outfield spot, and that’s a big time deal for an advanced level guy.
5. Josh Hader, LHP, Biloxi (Brewers) – Hader was only in the Southern League for 11 starts and 57 innings, but he was so impressive that he’s the first pitcher to show up on the list in this pitching-dominated league. That tells you just how impressive he is. From the left hand side, Hader has an approach that sits somewhere between Chris Sale and Randy Johnson in his delivery and wicked stuff. His numbers looked like those guys as well, with a 0.95 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 57 innings, including a .194 average against.
6. Jake Bauers, OF, Montgomery (Rays) – Bauers has a very pretty lefty swing, and that’s the first thing you see on his scouting report. He was acquired as part of the Wil Myers deal after 2014, and he’s shown solid power to the gaps, though his swing path right now looks to me like a guy who is more doubles power than home run power. He certainly has natural power that could play up with a slight adjustment in his swing path. Bauers is a passable defender in the outfield, but he’s a high-end defensive first baseman, and that may be where he fits going forward.
7. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Mississippi (Braves) – Many would see Newcomb’s high 3’s ERA and assume he had a rough season, but he was working with his pitching coach to pitch off of his high-end fastball and change, using his elite curve ball to generate strikeouts, racking up 152 in 140 innings. Newcomb struggled some with his landing spot, and that threw off his control, but he has a very heavy fastball and has such a broad build on his 6’5 frame that it’s near impossible for hitters to pick the ball up off of the bat. He only allowed 4 home runs this season.
8. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Montgomery (Rays) – Screwball artist was tremendous at high-A before his promotion, and actually pitched better with Montgomery. He isn’t going to be a strikeout artist as his mix of pitches generates weak contact and encourages hitters to put the ball into play, but even so, he collected 53 strikeouts in 59 innings, posting a 2.28 ERA. He showed a touch of fatigue at the end of the season as his fastball straightened a bit, and he relies on movement on the fastball along with good movement on his curve and his screwball to get guys to drive the ball into the ground. His change is a solid strikeout pitch, and he actually flashed an above-average cutter with Montgomery that could be a weapon for him going forward as he gets more of a feel for it.
9. Amir Garrett, LHP, Pensacola (Reds) – Former college basketball player is an incredible athlete off the mound, and he put up impressive numbers in his time in AA before being promoted to AAA. He had 13 appearances, throwing 77 innings, with a 1.75 ERA and 28/78 BB/K along with a .184 average against. Garrett has great extension on his fastball to generate a downward plane, making it difficult to drive the ball off of him. He has a slider that can be very, very good, but he can get off in his delivery and lose the sharpness in his slider when he doesn’t land right.
10. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Chattanooga (Twins) – Gonsalves made a legit push to be the #1 Twins prospect with his performance at high-A and AA this season. His performance for Chattanooga was incredibly impressive, with 74 innings, a 37/89 BB/K ratio, a 1.82 ERA, and a .171 average against. He has excellent deception in his natural delivery, and he plays up his velocity due to this. He has a solid change, and he offers a curve and slider that help to generate weak contact, though AA hitters did a better job of laying off the pitches out of the zone than did high-A hitters, leading to a significant walk rate in AA.
Next: Texas League
Texas League
1. Alex Bregman, SS, Corpus Christi (Astros) – If he was still eligible, Bregman would give Yoan Moncada a run for the top prospect in the game. He showed incredible power and contact ability along with plenty of defensive ability at shortstop, arguably enough to bump Carlos Correa to third, but Correa is the established star, so Bregman will be moving to another position, and he profiles as a high-end defender at second or third. Bregman’s swing would lead to a high batting average going forward, but he also is able to generate plus power in his high-contact swing.
2. Francis Martes, RHP, Corpus Christi (Astros) – Martes has some of the most wicked stuff in the Texas League this year, which is incredible considering he was just 20 years old at AA. He has rough control at times, but his 131 strikeouts in 125 innings was evidence of just how difficult his stuff was to hit. Martes has a fastball that has triple digit velocity with a split change that is difficult to read and a curve that’s above average.
3. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Tulsa (Dodgers) – Bellinger showed the biggest power tool in the league on the season, but he also showed the ability to take a walk. He’s a very good defender at first base, but he’ll be carried by that big left handed power swing that generated 41 extra base hits over 399 at bats. He’s 6’4 and 210, but his swing is not a big loopy swing that you’d expect from a guy his size. He could certainly profile as a guy who hits .275-.300 with power.
4. David Paulino, RHP, Corpus Christi (Astros) – Paulino makes 3 Corpus Christi players in the top 4, none of whom finished the season on their roster. Paulino is a long, lanky pitcher who has a fastball that he runs up to the mid-90s with tremendous downward plane. His change is a weapon against opposite side hitters and his curve needs work, but it flashes as high as plus grades. He has had health issues, but if he can stay on the mound, he’ll be an impact arm in Houston in 2017.
5. Franklin Barreto, SS, Midland (Athletics) – Barreto may not stick at short long term, but he would be elite at second base if he does get moved there. He has shown excellent growth in his pitch recognition, posting a .340 OBP this season. He also showed a unique blend of 50-55 power along with 65-70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale for each, as he hit 10 home runs as part of 38 extra base hits along with 30 stolen bases. He needs to add polish to his game in most facets, and that will come as the 20 year-old ages, which will help him in picking his spots to steal better and making better choices in the field at short (or second, if he moves there).
6. Luke Weaver, RHP, Springfield (Cardinals) – Weaver missed a chunk of the season as he recovered from a broken wrist, but it didn’t affect his pitches. In fact, his off speed stuff has actually improved pretty heavily to go with a fastball that only runs 92-95 but has above-average movement. Weaver got tremendous results in the league before heading up to the big leagues. He had a 1.40 ERA and a 10/88 BB/K ratio over 77 innings on the season. Weaver is a guy who consistently works on improving his pitches and adding pitches, so his work ethic could certainly take him beyond his raw pitch grades.
7. Lewis Brinson, OF, Frisco (Rangers) – Downgraded this season due to issues with his contact skills, Brinson did show significant progress in his strikeout rate. He has the ability to be an above average corner outfielder or pass in center field. Brinson’s biggest issue is pitch recognition. While he was able to make better contact with pitches, he still struggled to lay off pitches out of the zone, which led to a low walk rate. Brinson may have the most raw talent of any player in the Texas League, which has often been the case for Brinson. Soon he’ll need to start turning that talent into production.
8. Matt Chapman, 3B, Midland (Athletics) – Chapman has ridiculous power…and not much else. He swings and misses a ton, doesn’t walk much, and struggles to have consistent contact. He did show excellent defense, but he’s a guy who could be a 30 home run guy with a .210-.230 hitter. Chapman has a lot of load into his swing, and he could mitigate some of the batting average concerns if he could shorten his path to the ball, which would allow him to adjust better.
9. Ryon Healy, IF, Midland (Athletics) – Healy may have saved his best for the major leagues, interestingly enough, and that’s saying something, considering he hit .338/.409/.628 in 145 at bats with Midland. Healy is passable at third, but he fits better as a first baseman in the majors due to a fringy arm and instincts. Healy took a big leap forward as a hitter this season after he made an adjustment to his swing path to generate more lift, which ended up helping his batting average plenty as well as he was able to get more solid contact on all balls, not just balls he hoped to plant in the seats.
10. Alex Verdugo, OF, Tulsa (Dodgers) – So Verdugo may look different when he is at the plate due to an unorthodox swing, but he has made it work. He’s not a traditional body that you’d dream on at 6′ and 205 pounds, but he actually plays a plus center field at that size with extremely good instincts off the bat. He has a very good contact profile in the minors in spite of his “odd” swing, and he’s shown the ability to drive the ball, with 13 home runs this year. Verdugo is only 20, so he has time to adjust his approach if it’s going to be an issue.
Next up will be the AAA leagues, the International League and the Pacific Coast League, so look forward to those!