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NLCS Preview: Rotation Status and Rest Among Two Things to Watch

By Joshua Mayer |
Jul 7, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Ben Zobrist (18), shortstop Addison Russell (27), center fielder Dexter Fowler (24), third baseman Kris Bryant (17), starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49), starting pitcher Jon Lester (34), and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) are honored before the game against the Atlanta Braves with their All-Star jerseys at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 7, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Ben Zobrist (18), shortstop Addison Russell (27), center fielder Dexter Fowler (24), third baseman Kris Bryant (17), starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49), starting pitcher Jon Lester (34), and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) are honored before the game against the Atlanta Braves with their All-Star jerseys at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

With the Dodgers set to square off against the Cubs on Saturday night in the NLCS, one team comes in with only one day off and a depleted pitching rotation, while the other comes in with rested pitchers and three days off. How exactly will this affect the series?

Winning the NLDS in Game 4 as opposed to Game 5 would seem to be an advantage for the Cubs. When looking at the data, that may not be true. Stick with me here, but when two teams face off in a League Championship Series (NLCS or ALCS) who had different series standings in the League Division Series (NLDS or ALDS) (3-0, 3-1, or 3-2), the team that lost more games en route to a longer series in the division series is 8-3 in the past 10 years in the championship series.

To put in (hopefully) simpler terms, when the two teams in the LCS of the AL or NL had differing series lengths in the LDS, the teams whose series went longest have won eight of the 11 series in the LCS to move on to the World Series. Let’s look at a few of the examples for some clarity:

2015: Mets 3-2 NLDS, Cubs 3-1 NLDS, Mets NLCS winner

2013: Cardinals 3-2 NLDS, Dodgers 3-1 NLDS, Cardinals NLCS winner

2010: Rangers 3-2 ALDS, Yankees 3-0 ALDS, Rangers ALCS winner

Again, since 2006, this scenario where the teams in the LCS have had different series lengths in the LDS has happened 11 times. Eight of those times, the team with more losses in the LDS moved on to the World Series.

Does this put the Dodgers at an advantage over the Cubs? It’s hard to be too sure. From 2002-2005, the teams who lost more in the LDS were actually 2-6 in the following round. Compared to the 8-3 mark from 2006-2015.

Then in 1981 (the first year with a division series), and then from 1995-2001 (when the next division series happened, making it permanent), the teams who lost more in the LDS were 7-3 in the following round. So in the past 21 years plus the random 1981, the teams who have lost more in the LDS are 17-12 when attempting to move on to the World Series.

World Series Results

From 1981 (the year the Championship Series started) to 2015, in World Series where the teams had differing lengths of series in the NLCS, teams who lost more were 14-13. So combined, teams who lost more in their previous series compared to their counterparts were a combined 31-25. Does this suggest that a longer layoff is a negative for a team like the Cubs? It’s certainly possible.

Last season the Mets swept the Cubs in the NLCS, before losing four-to-one in the World Series against the Royals, who lost two games in the ALCS. The Mets had five days off between series, while the Royals only had only three.

In 2006 and 2007, the talks of a long layoff being detrimental to a team going into the World Series were prominent after two teams, the Tigers (2006) and Rockies (2007) who swept their way through the LCS were dropped by opponents who won their Championship Series in Game 7. Not only were the teams dropped in the World Series, they were demolished. The Tigers lost 4-1 to the Cardinals, while the Rockies were swept by the Red Sox.

But how much will the longer layoff hurt the Cubs when it is only three days? Especially when their opponents only get one day off with a depleted pitching staff.

While only time will tell how the series eventually plays out, it can be assumed that any advantage the Dodgers have by not having as many days off as the Cubs is countered by the Dodgers’ fatigued rotation.

Projected Rotations

Chicago will be able to line up ace Jon Lester in Game 1, and then Kyle Hendricks in Game 2, while going with Jake Arrieta in the third. John Lackey will most likely go in Game 4, though he struggled in the NLDS in his Game 4 start. The Cubs have other options too. Jason Hammel may be healthy enough to join the roster, though he struggled in the second half (again) with a 4.35 ERA in 13 starts. Mike Montgomery has starting experience this year and pitched well in relief in the series against the Giants, pitching five and a third while giving up just one run.

The Dodgers, similarly, have options. But their pitchers are not nearly as trusted as the Cubs. Clayton Kershaw threw 110 pitches in Game 4, before getting the save in Game 5 in the NLDS. The ace has no chance to pitch Game 1, and Game 2 seems to be a long shot.  

Rich Hill can possibly pitch Game 2, but that may also be a long shot as he started Game 5, albeit with only 50+ pitches, and has age and injury history not on his side. The young Julio Urias threw an inning in relief in Game 5, and may not be trusted to start Game 1 without a fresh arm.

The likeliest scenario includes Kenta Maeda starting Game 1, with Urias starting Game 2. These two rookies facing off against Lester and Hendricks at Wrigley Field spell trouble for Los Angeles. But they can then counter by going with Kershaw and Hill in Games 3 and 4. The problem from there would be going with Maeda and Urias again in Games 5 and 6, which could be the most crucial games of the series.

Will Dodgers Continue Unconventional Ways?

Of course, as Dave Roberts proved in Game 5, the Dodgers may not go with the simple and likeliest scenario. They could very well start Maeda in Game 1 and turn to a combo of Hill and Kershaw on short rest in Games 2 and 3.

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /

The wild card for the Dodgers is the presence of Brett Anderson, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Alex Wood. Anderson, Kazmir and McCarthy are making a combined $41 million this year, so they should be able to contribute to the playoff push. None of the pitchers have been ruled out, but all seem to be bullpen options at best.

Perhaps manager Dave Roberts can split up the innings in a Game 2 between multiple starters to maximize their innings. Against the Cubs’ potent offense, that is no easy task.

Though it has been proven that teams with less rest do better in a series, Joe Maddon’s Cubs are riding some much needed momentum after coming back against San Francisco in Game 4. Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo finally got it going by getting on base three times, and Javier Baez and Willson Contreras also had huge hits. The team will hope to use this momentum as they have all season to keep their offense hot.

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Overall, the Cubs are in much better shape pitching wise and have the better offense. Any advantage L.A. has due to coming off a big win just two days prior to the start of the NLCS is mitigated by the fact that their rotation is so unstable. Expect a good series, but one that exposes the Dodgers’ lack of healthy and experienced starting pitching depth. The Cubs’ NL-best offense will take advantage and win in six games, en route to their first World Series appearance since 1945.

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