New York Yankees: Will Gardner and Ellsbury Make Way for Youth?

The New York Yankees have a variety of younger outfield options to consider for 2017 and beyond. Will they be motivated to deal at least one of their veterans this offseason to make room?

Much has been made of the New York Yankees‘ late-season youth movement, a transition that proved quite promising in its early stages. Propelled by the meteoric rise of rookie catcher Gary Sanchez, the Yanks went from a team that shipped out some of its best players at that the trade deadline to one that wasn’t officially eliminated from playoff contention until the season’s final week.

While the organization and its fans will undoubtedly have a brighter outlook heading into the offseason, there is still a lot of work to be done and many decisions to make regarding the roster. The team wants to continue getting younger, but it can be difficult to do that with several aging veterans still under contract for a few more seasons.

One area that general manager Brian Cashman will have to figure out is the outfield. Aaron Judge will presumably get the chance to be the everyday right fielder out of Spring Training. The young slugger struggled after being called up in August, striking out in 44.2 percent of his plate appearances. He was also shut down in mid-September with an oblique injury.

Nevertheless, Judge flashed some of his brute strength at the plate, clubbing four homers, virtually all of which were of the tape-measure variety. The K rate will obviously need to come down, but the Yankees would probably accept a fair amount of strikeouts if Judge provides long balls regularly.

Over in center and left, the club will need to decide what to do with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury. They’re signed through 2018 and 2020, respectively. But the Yanks have a group of outfielders in the minor leagues that they feel good about, with representatives from pretty much every level of the farm.

As LoHud’s Chad Jennings points out, Mason Williams got a look this year after Judge went down. He hasn’t embarrassed himself in a small sampling of major league action, posting a .758 OPS in 20 games. The Yankees might feel that Williams in 2017 would give them around the same production as a declining Gardner or Ellsbury. And the franchise’s emerging new philosophy seems to be going with youth over age wherever feasible.

Further down the road, the Yanks also have Clint Frazier, acquired from Cleveland in the Andrew Miller trade. He’s MLB Pipeline’s overall #15 prospect and could be ready at some point next season if he impresses enough at Triple-A. There’s Billy McKinney as well, sent over from the Cubs in the package that landed Aroldis Chapman.

Tyler Wade, an infielder by trade, has been playing center field in the Arizona Fall League this year, too. And while Tyler Austin primarily manned first base after making his big league debut, he has experience in the outfield as well. That might be where he’ll fit when Greg Bird is healthy. The Yankees also drafted an outfielder in the first round this year in Blake Rutherford, although at 19 years old he’s significantly further away.

Aaron Hicks is still in the mix as well, arbitration eligible for next year and under team control through 2019. He was a major disappointment this season, but having just turned 27, the club is likely hoping he can still bounce back and won’t cut ties prematurely.

All this to illustrate that Ellsbury and Gardner are looking more like roadblocks than essential players lately. Which means Cashman could very well shop them over the winter. But is he likely to find a taker for either?

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The 33-year-old Ellsbury seems like a lost cause unless the Yanks are willing to pay the lion’s share of the four years and roughly $84.6 million left on his deal. There is also a team option with a $5 million buyout for 2021. That contract has been arguably the worst in baseball from the moment it was signed. Ellsbury hasn’t generated more than 3.3 bWAR in a season while wearing the pinstripes.

There’s just not much Ellsbury does well anymore. He has posted a .326 OBP in three years with the Yankees, certainly not that remarkable coming from a leadoff-type hitter. He has also become far less adventurous on the base paths, as his stolen base totals have dipped from 39 to 20 over the past three seasons.

Though Gardner’s numbers have dropped noticeably, too, he is still a relatively useful player. He reached base at a .351 clip this year, his best in a full season since 2010. The 33-year-old has also averaged a 3.8 bWAR across the last four campaigns. However, like Ellsbury, Gardner doesn’t utilize his speed as much as he used to either, swiping 16 bags this year, his fewest in any full campaign. And after working Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch to swat a combined 33 homers in 2014-15, he hit just seven this season.

Aside from being the more attractive player at this point in their careers, Gardner also has the more appealing contract. He is signed for two more years and $24 million, with a $2 million buyout in 2019. The Yanks could probably sell a trade partner on that, even if they had to throw in some cash.

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The Yankees would certainly prefer to get out from under Ellsbury’s deal, but if they want to clear room in the outfield, Gardner would be the easier one to move. They will have to decide how dedicated they are to implementing their young players, and how quickly they want to advance the process forward.

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