Pittsburgh Pirates: 2016 Season In Review
After three straight seasons with at least 88 wins and postseason appearances, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a disappointing reversion back to their losing ways.
In 2013, the Pittsburgh Pirates ended a 20-year streak of losing seasons when they won 94 games and earned a wild card spot. They beat the Cincinnati Reds in the wild card game, but lost to the Cardinals in five games in the National League Division Series. They followed that up with an 88-win season and a 98-win season, making the playoffs as a wild card team in both of those years, but losing the wild card game to Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Jake Arrieta last year.
Expectations coming into this season were modest for a team that had won 98 games the year before. Sports Illustrated projected them to win 87 games but finish out of the postseason. Fangraphs had them with 83 wins and Baseball Prospectus pegged them to win just 82 games and neither site expected the Pirates to make the playoffs.
It turned out the experts were correct. The Pirates did regress. Not only did they fail to make the playoffs, they didn’t even have a winning record, as they finished the year 78-83 (with a rain-shortened tie against the Cubs). The main reason for the Pirates’ disappoint season was their pitching staff, from both the starters and relievers. As you can see below, they improved slightly on offense and defense from 2015, but declined greatly in pitching.
2015
18th in wOBA (99 wRC+)
27th in defense
6th in starting pitcher fWAR (3.53 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
7th in relief pitcher fWAR (2.67 ERA, 3.40 FIP)
2016
13th in wOBA (99 wRC+)
24th in defense
24th in starting pitcher fWAR (4.67 era, 4.43 FIP)
25th in relief pitcher fWAR (3.57 ERA, 4.12 FIP)
- wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (measures offense on a scale of 100 where 100 is average. A wRC+ of 120 would mean a player or team is 20% better than average on offense. A wRC+ of 99 would mean a player or team is 1% below average on offense). This metric is adjusted for league and ballpark.
- fWAR = Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement
- ERA = Earned Run Average
- FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching (estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the performance of their defense).
In 2015, the Pirates had the second-best ERA in baseball, at 3.23. It jumped by nearly a run this year, to 4.22. The starters’ ERA went up by more than a run per nine innings and the reliever’s ERA went up by 0.90.
The season started off well enough. The Pirates were 15-9 in April and 14-13 in May. It all fell apart in June, when they went 9-19 and dropped to 14 games behind the Cubs heading into July. In July and August the Pirates bounced back to go a combined 29-23. They then finished the year with just 11 wins in their last 30 games, including losses in seven of their last nine. They ended up 25 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central.
Along the way, the Pirates saw their franchise player have the worst season of his career and their young ace struggle with injuries and a greatly reduced strikeout rate. They traded one of the best closers in baseball and two starting pitchers they had hoped would be a big part of their rotation.
Let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016.
The Good
LF Starling Marte (4.0 fWAR, 529 PA)—Marte was the Pirates’ best player this year. He hit .311/.362/.456 and stole 47 bases, good for third in the National League. It was the fourth straight year that Marte stole at least 30 bases. His .362 on-base percentage and .456 slugging percentage were career highs. The downside to his season were injuries that limited him to 129 games and 529 plate appearances, but the overall season was a positive.
RF Gregory Polanco (2.7 fWAR, 587 PA)—The 24-year-old right fielder made big improvements in his ability to hit for power, which had been lacking in his first two big league seasons. Polanco increased his home run total from nine in 2015 to 22 this year. Of course, it could have been an even better season if not for injuries to his shoulder and knee that hurt his production in the second half. Polanco hit .287/.362/.500 in the first half, but struggled to a .220/.267/.414 batting line in the second half as he tried to play through the injuries.
3B Jung Ho Kang (2.4 fWAR, 370 PA)—It’s difficult to include Kang here because of the ongoing investigation of an alleged sexual assault from earlier this year. Setting that aside, we have Kang improving on his debut season of 2015. He was limited to 103 games because of the injury suffered on a take-out slide late in the 2015 season, but he hit .255/.354/.513, with 21 home runs in 370 plate appearances. When he was in the lineup, he was one of the team’s best hitters.
UT Sean Rodriguez (2.0 fWAR, 342 PA)—Rodriguez came into this season with a career batting line of .228/.295/.371. Somehow he hit .270/.349/.510 in 342 plate appearances this year. It’s likely to go down as a fluke. It’s not often that a 31-year-old utility player suddenly becomes a great hitter and sustains that going forward. Even if proves to be an aberration it was a good year for the man who played every position but pitcher and catcher.
SP Ivan Nova (1.9 fWAR, 64.7 IP)—The Pirates acquired Nova in a deal with the Yankees at the trade deadline and he went 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch. Unfortunately, after building up some value with a good two months in Pittsburgh, Nova is a free agent and will likely sign with a team that has more money to spend.
SP Jameson Taillon (1.7 fWAR, 104 IP)—Taillon was one of the Pirates’ top pitching prospects heading into the season. He started the year in Triple-A and had a 2.04 ERA in 61 2/3 innings. That earned him a promotion to the big club in early June. He was 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts after his promotion. He should be part of the Pirates’ rotation for years to come.
The Bad
SP Gerrit Cole (2.5 fWAR, 116 IP)—It might be a bit unfair to put Cole in this category, but expectations were very high after he was 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA in 2015. He finished the year as the team’s best pitcher, but a 7-10 record with a 3.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP was disappointing for a pitcher with his talent. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 8.7 K/9 to 7.6 K/9 and his walk rate went up by nearly a batter per nine innings. He was limited to 21 starts because of elbow issues and was placed on the 60-day DL in September with right elbow posterior inflammation. It was his third DL stint of the year. Based on recent reports, there is no ligament damage, so there is hope he can come back next year and be the ace he was in 2015.
2B Josh Harrison (1.5 fWAR, 522 PA)—Harrison got off to a great start this year. Through the first two months of the season, he was hitting .329/.363/.435. He struggled mightily in June and July (.205/.228/.318) as the team went 23-29. He got back on track in August and the first part of September (.326/.349/.418), but his season ended with a groin strain in mid-September. He hasn’t been able to come close to his breakout 2014 season, when he was worth 5.0 fWAR. Over the last two years, he’s been worth a combined 2.8 fWAR and his on-base percentage and slugging percentage have been below average.
SS Jordy Mercer (1.3 fWAR, 584 PA)—At his best in 2014, Mercer was a league average shortstop. Last year was ugly, this year was only a bit better than ugly. He’s better than replacement level, worse than league average.
CF Andrew McCutchen (0.9 fWAR, 675 PA)—McCutchen is the heart and soul of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Prior to this season, he was their best player for the last half decade. He’s loved by fans and respected by teammates. That’s why the 2016 season was so painful to watch. McCutchen had started slowly before, but this year his slow start extended all the way to the All-Star Break. He hit .247/.319/.426 in the first half. He did improve a bit in the second half, hitting .267/.358/.435, but was still not the Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh fans were used to seeing. This is a guy who had four straight seasons with a .400 or better on-base percentage from 2012 to 2015. He also slugged over .500 in three of those four years. And not only did he struggle on offense, but his defense was rated the worst of his career by the Fangraphs defense metric. Calling this season a disappointment is being generous. He could easily be shifted to the “ugly” category.
The Ugly
Catcher Position (1.0 fWAR, 646 PA)—As a group, the catchers for the Pirates were 23rd in the league in Fangraphs WAR, but that ranking is propped up by defense. Their hitting was atrocious as they combined to hit .229/.325/.291, for a 73 wRC+, meaning they were 27% below average on offense when league and park effects were taken into account. The six players who got playing time behind the dish combined to hit just three home runs. The MLB median for the catcher position was 18. Francisco Cervelli got the bulk of the playing time. He hit .264/.377/.322. That .377 on-base percentage is very good, but a .322 slugging percentage isn’t going to cut it. Still, if Cervelli had stayed healthy, the catcher position would likely have been at least league average. Cervelli suffered a broken hamate bone in his left hand on June 10 and missed five weeks of the season. Even before the injury, he was hitting for almost no power, with a weak .293 slugging percentage. Cervelli wasn’t the problem, though. The non-Cervelli catchers, including Chris Stewart, Eric Fryer, and Erik Kratz, combined to hit .192/.258/.255.
1B John Jaso (0.6 fWAR, 432 PA)—The Pirates signed Jaso last December for $4 million to platoon at first base. They knew what they were getting, a guy with good on-base skills but limited power for a first baseman. In 2015, Jaso hit .286/.380/.459 in 216 plate appearances with the Rays. He got more playing time with the Pirates this year, but hit just .268/.353/.413. That batting line is not good enough at first base to help a team towards a postseason spot.
SP Ryan Vogelsong (-0.1 fWAR, 82.3 IP)—The 38-year-old Vogelsong was expected to pitch long relief this year but was forced into the starting rotation in early August after the Pirates traded away two starting pitchers. He finished the year with a 4.81 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, which probably shouldn’t be too surprising considering he had a 4.67 ERA and 1.47 WHIP last season.
SP Jeff Locke (-0.1 fWAR, 127.3 IP)—Locke was able to outpitch his peripherals for two years back in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, he had a 3.52 ERA and 4.03 FIP. In 2014, he had a 3.91 ERA and 4.37 FIP. The trend reversed itself in 2015 when Locke had a 4.49 ERA and 3.95 FIP. This year it continued in that direction, as Locke posted a brutal 5.44 ERA and 4.84 FIP.
SP Francisco Liriano (-0.3 fWAR, 113.7 IP)—Liriano signed with the Pirates as a free agent in February of 2013. He was coming off two straight years with an ERA over 5.00, but he turned his career around in Pittsburgh. He was very good for the Bucs in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Over this three-year stretch, he was 35-25 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. They were counting on him to be their #2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. Unfortunately, he returned to his pre-Pittsburgh ways. He was 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 21 starts. The biggest problem was a walk rate well over five batters per nine. The Pirates traded Liriano to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline and the change of scenery seemed to help him as he posted a 2.92 ERA with the Blue Jays down the stretch.
SP Jon Niese (-0.4 fWAR, 110 IP)—The Pirates traded second baseman Neil Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese in December of 2015 with the hope that Niese would be a solid number three or four starter. Even an ERA around 4.00 would be acceptable. Unfortunately, Niese had a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with the Pirates, falling well below expectations. They traded him back to the Mets at the trade deadline.