Houston Astros Offseason To-Do List

Starting Rotation

As everything sits right now, the Houston Astros rotation will consist of Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Lance McCullers and Joe Musgrove in some order. If McCullers is healthy, he is arguably the ace of the staff, but after missing much of the 2016 season, the team should build up some depth to account for any absence from him, or any other starters in 2017.

McHugh was a three-win player this season, even while his ERA has regressed from 2.73 to 3.89 to 4.34 over the past three seasons. He can be dominant at times, but can also get shelled. His 3.95 FIP indicates that he performed a bit better than his numbers show and that he can still be a big contributor next season.

Dallas Keuchel‘s struggles were well documented this season, and a return to his Cy Young form is no guarantee. Fiers is a solid back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Musgrove just completed his first taste of the big leagues and will be entering his first full season in the big leagues in 2017.

Behind them are another couple of options that could also be used in the bullpen in Chris Devenski and Michael Feliz, who could fill for some spot starts throughout the year, and two top pitching prospects in Francis Martes (#1 overall) and David Paulino (#4) who will need some time in the minors before getting the call, but should be ready to contribute at some point in 2017. Paulino got a cup of coffee with the club in September due to a number of injuries, but will more than likely be in Fresno to start the 2017 campaign.

So why add a starting pitcher with all of these options? Well for starters, none of the five members of the rotation is a guarantee. Devenski posted a 4.01 ERA in 24 1/3 innings as a starter, compared to a 1.61 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of relief work, so while his overall numbers were fantastic, he may not be a long-term solution. Feliz only appeared as a reliever, posting a 4.43 ERA, but has plenty of experience as a starter from the minor leagues. His 13.15 strikeouts per nine rate is also a weapon out of the pen, and wouldn’t likely be nearly as high as a starter.

Aside from Keuchel, the Astros have four right-handers, and that number grows when adding Devenski, Feliz, Martes and Paulino to the mix. Adding a lefty seems like a must.

First a word of warning: Some of these options will not be pretty, but neither is this year’s free agent class. Ok, now you’re ready (hopefully).

C.J. Wilson is set to hit free agency and will not be one of the first players targeted by any team this winter. He will likely sign for a relatively small to modest contract, perhaps a one-year deal to build up his value, that is laden with incentives to increase his earning power.

Brett Anderson is a left-hander that has been prone to injuries throughout his career, but when he’s healthy, he’s filthy. If the Astros could keep him on a regular rotation for the first half of the season or so, they could attempt to flip him at the trade deadline once they have a feel for how their rotation is shaping up while clearing room for Martes and/or Paulino.

Jorge De La Rosa had been a solid under-the-radar contributor to the Colorado Rockies for nearly a decade, but is set to hit free agency. His 5.51 ERA this past year isn’t going to create a lot of confidence, but he has posted better-than-league-average ERAs while pitching in Coors in three of the last four seasons, which included a 3.49 mark in 2013. It’s hard to bank on 2013 numbers for sure, but for a depth piece, there are worse options out there.

Those are the big three lefties on the market outside of Rich Hill, but the likelihood of Hill coming to Houston is not very high.

The other options would have to come via trade, and it’s possible that Chris Sale‘s name will come up in trade talks during the winter meetings, but after giving up so much to acquire Giles, Gomez, Kazmir and Fiers, it could be a gross overpay of talent.