Seattle Mariners: Top Five Offseason Priorities
Starting Rotation
Like most teams in baseball, the Mariners need help in the starting rotation. The current top five on the depth chart are Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Ariel Miranda. They all have their issues.
Felix Hernandez just had the worst season of his career. He’ll be 31 next year and his fastball velocity is down, his strikeout rate has dropped two years in a row, and his walk rate has gone up the last two years. His ERA was 3.82 but with a 4.63 FIP. There are a few red flags there. The one silver lining might be the possibility that Felix never fully recovered from a calf injury suffered while celebrating a teammate’s home run against the Padres on May 31. In his 10 starts before the injury, Felix had a 2.86 ERA. Even then, his FIP was 4.13 and his strikeout rate was down from last year. Felix returned in July after missing seven weeks and had a 4.48 ERA and 4.98 FIP from that point forward. It’s hard to know what version of King Felix we’ll see next year. At 31 years old, it’s more likely than not that we’ve already seen the best of the King.
Hisashi Iwakuma had his 2017 option kick in because he pitched more than 162 innings in 2016. He’ll make $14 million next year. He had the highest ERA of his career (4.12) and his FIP was even higher, at 4.27. He also had a decline in his strikeout rate and an increase in his walk rate. He’ll be 36.
Taijuan Walker has great stuff but has yet to make it work over a full season. He also recently had surgery to remove a bone fragment from his right ankle. The foot discomfort bothered him throughout the season and even caused a stint on the disabled list in July. He ended up starting 25 games and had a 4.22 ERA (4.99 FIP). Home runs have been a big problem for Walker. He’s allowed 52 big flies in 304 innings since the start of 2015, which ranks him fifth-worst in home runs allowed per nine innings. Perhaps the injured foot was part of the problem and he can have an effective season in 2017.
James Paxton is a left-handed pitcher with a 95-plus miles per hour fastball. According to Fangraphs, Paxton had the third-highest average fastball velocity for all starting pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched last year. Lefties don’t usually have this kind of speed. He had a pedestrian 3.79 ERA in 2016, but his FIP of 2.80 suggests his ERA should have been much lower. The real problem with Paxton is fragility. His 121 innings in the big leagues last year was a career high. Even when you add his minor league and major league seasons together, he’s never pitched more than 171 innings in a season and has been under 125 innings in five of his seven professional seasons.
The Mariners acquired Ariel Miranda in a trade for Wade Miley last July. Miranda’s season looks good on the surface. He had a 3.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. But a closer look reveals a 5.25 FIP and .222 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). It will be impossible for Miranda to have a .222 BABIP going forward. His ERA is likely to be in the mid-4.00s next year. He can be a fourth or fifth starter, but the Mariners shouldn’t expect much more than that.
Other potential in-house options for the rotation include Nathan Karns, Zach Lee, and Adrian Sampson, among others. Overall, though, the Mariners’ rotation is shaky. The upside is that Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton are completely healthy and pitch to their potential, Iwakuma is a solid veteran, and someone emerges for the fifth starter position. The downside is an even worse year than this one from the starters.
The free agent market is sparse of high-quality pitchers. Last year, David Price, Zack Greinke, and Johnny Cueto were top-tier pitchers who signed big, long-term contracts. There are no free agent pitchers even close to that tier available this year.
The most talented free agent starter is Rich Hill. He’s also a big risk because of a long history of health problems. He’s been in the major leagues for 12 years and has pitched more than 150 innings just one time. He only has two seasons with 100 or more innings, including this year’s 110 1/3. Also, he’ll be 37 next year. He’s the ultimate in high-risk, high-reward starting pitchers.
It’s much more likely that the Mariners would be looking at someone like Jeremy Hellickson, Jhoulys Chacin, Ivan Nova, Brett Anderson, or Andrew Cashner. Those are the caliber of pitchers available. They aren’t exciting, but the Mariners need to take a dip in the free agent waters and get at least one starter to help the rotation.