MLB Postseason: How Buck Showalter Changed the Pennant Race

The Baltimore Orioles were bounced from the MLB postseason after manager Buck Showalter‘s befuddling decision to not use his best reliever in extra innings of a win-or-go-home game. The scrutiny that his decision has received both in the press and on social media has provided the backdrop for this postseason’s usage of late-inning relievers.

First off, if you haven’t read Brian Kenny’s book “Ahead of the Curve” go out and pick it up. A lot of the decisions that are being made in today’s game are discussed, as many teams are more forthcoming with their adaptation of sabermetrics in recent years. One holdout has been the idea of “bullpenning,” or using your best reliever (generally the team’s closer) when the game is on the line–and that may not be in the ninth inning.

Once the Cleveland Indians acquired Andrew Miller at the trade deadline, they started implementing him at will, and that usage has continued this postseason, with Miller being brought in as early as the fifth inning, pitching for a couple of innings, and then allowing Terry Francona to play the match-ups late in games to build a bridge to his ninth inning guy. Or sometimes Miller will be the closer, if the situation dictates it.

For this strategy to work, at least two things have to happen. The first is that a player has to be willing to perform the duty in the first place. Miller is the perfect candidate, especially as a left-hander, to take on multiple innings. It helps that he has already signed his big free agent deal, so he is being compensated to do said duty, while players that are approaching free agency in the past have generally been paid for the number of saves that they have recorded, and saves aren’t credited in the sixth inning.

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With Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen set to hit the open market this winter, they are likely helping themselves earn a little extra scratch by taking on extra innings to help propel their respective teams to victory. Even if the Dodgers go down in Game Six and Jansen doesn’t throw another pitch in 2016, he has helped himself earn quite a bit more after the performance he turned in during Game Five of the NLDS, throwing over 50 pitches in relief before ultimately ceding to Clayton Kershaw for the final two outs.

The second major factor is that the idea has to be generally accepted, and up until the AL wild card game, this was not a topic that was discussed as openly as it has been in recent weeks. Baltimore lost without their best pitcher on the mound. That one decision has created a safe haven for the remaining MLB postseason managers to use their best relievers whenever they darn well please, as the tide of thinking has seemed to have taken a dramatic shift.

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The Dodgers could have had this postseason plan all along, as their starting rotation has been hit or miss outside of Kershaw, and the Indians were certainly going to go this route with two closers and a slew of solid middle relievers in tow. But since Baltimore and Toronto were the first MLB postseason match-up this October, it certainly appears as though managers have received a get out of jail free card in these playoffs, and they’re using it to largely positive results.