St. Louis Cardinals 2016 Year in Review: Good, Bad and What Next?

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In our continuing 2016 season review series, we take a look at what caused the St. Louis Cardinals to fall short of the postseason for the first time in six years.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a franchise not used to missing the postseason. Yet that is precisely what happened in 2016. The Cards finished the year with an 86-76 record, a distant 17.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and just one game off the pace for the league’s final Wild Card spot. For the first time since 2010, they are not participating in the playoffs. An excruciating development to be sure for fans in the Gateway City.

The division rival Cubs began the year with all the fanfare, and the Cardinals didn’t do much to take it away from them throughout the course of the campaign. They pretty much treaded water over the span of the year, never finishing any individual month with a record more than five games over .500. That was in July, when the Redbirds posted a 16-11 mark.

It became clear relatively early that the NL Central crown wasn’t really in play. By the end of May, the Cubs were 20 games over .500 and the Cards were already 8.5 games behind. Fortunately, the Wild Card race remained quite open down the stretch, giving St. Louis a pretty good opportunity to sneak into the postseason that way.

Despite winning five of their last six games, the Cardinals were unable to beat out the Mets and Giants for those final two playoff berths. After winning at least 90 games in each of the previous three seasons – including 100 victories last year – the 2016 campaign was a definite downslide for the perennially competitive club.

So let’s take a closer look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ season. What went right, what went wrong, and where do they go from here?

Next: The Good

What Went Right?

Though they ultimately fell short of their goal, there were several things to feel good about as a St. Louis Cardinals fan in 2016. The team boasted one of the league’s most productive offenses, ranking fourth in runs scored (779), second in home runs (225) and fifth in OPS (.768).

Fueling that home run total, the roster featured six players that hit at least 20 round-trippers. Leading the group was newcomer Jedd Gyorko with 30, who was sent to St. Louis in the offseason trade that shipped Jon Jay to the San Diego Padres. Brandon Moss added 28 in his second season (and first full campaign) with the Cardinals.

Matt Carpenter led the squad with an .885 OPS while also logging at least 40 appearances at three different positions (1B, 2B, 3B). He earned the third All-Star nod of his career as well.

The Redbirds also saw some great contributions from their younger players. Chief among them was rookie shortstop Aledmys Diaz, who slashed an impressive .300/.369/.510 with 17 home runs and 65 RBI. Unfortunately, he missed all of August and nearly half of September with a thumb injury, limiting his season to 111 games. It was a common problem for the Cards this year. (More on that later.)

25-year-old outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk acquitted themselves fairly well in their second and third big league seasons, respectively. Grichuk posted a .769 OPS with 24 homers, while Piscotty managed an .800 OPS and connected on 22 long balls.

Perhaps the most unexpectedly pleasant surprise was Seung-hwan Oh in the bullpen. The Cardinals didn’t really know what they were going to get in the 34-year-old Korean reliever, but by July he was their closer. Oh converted 19 of 23 save opportunities in place of the deposed Trevor Rosenthal while putting up a 1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 5.72 K/BB ratio over 79.2 innings. With a $2.75 option for next year already vested, he should be among the league’s best values in 2017.

Next: The Bad

What Went Wrong?

While the St. Louis Cardinals’ bats were more than potent enough to win games, their pitching was far more ordinary. Their rotation was middle-of-the-road, managing a 4.33 ERA as a unit, good for 13th in MLB. Interestingly enough, their bullpen also ranked 13th with a 3.62 ERA.

Of all Cardinals hurlers to make at least 10 starts, only one finished the year with an ERA below 4.50. That was 25-year-old Carlos Martinez with a 3.04 ERA and 16 wins under his belt. The most expensive disappointment in the rotation was Mike Leake, the big offseason free agent signing. In one of last winter’s more questionable moves, the Cards inked the veteran right-hander to a five-year, $80 million contract. He proceeded to go 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

After a torn Achilles wiped out virtually all of his 2015, former ace Adam Wainwright struggled this year. The 35-year-old posted a 4.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 2.73 K/BB. Though he did manage to log a healthy 198.2 innings, he also had the dubious distinction of leading the NL in hits (220) and earned runs (102) allowed.

The Cards also won’t feel too good about Michael Wacha‘s performance this season. After posting a 3.21 ERA over his first three major league campaigns, the 25-year-old sputtered to a 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 24 starts and three bullpen appearances.

St. Louis’ defense didn’t do them many favors this year. According to Fangraphs, they ranked 13th in MLB with four Defensive Runs Saved and 24th with a -4.9 UZR/150. They also placed 24th in Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) metric with a rating of -32.8. The loss of Jason Heyward‘s speed and glove in the outfield likely played a role in that, along with some deterioration of Yadier Molina‘s skills behind the plate.

The injury bug also bit the Cardinals harder than most other teams. Matt Adams, Kolten Wong, Jhonny Peralta, Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss and Jedd Gyorko each missed at least 30 games.

Next: The Future

Now What?

Though 2016 was largely a disappointment for the St. Louis Cardinals, they shouldn’t overreact during the offseason. For one thing, the upcoming free agent class isn’t exactly bursting with potential answers for the Cards (or most other clubs, for that matter). The problems that affected the team this year could end up working themselves out organically over the months ahead.

The lineup still managed to put a lot of runs on the board even while missing several of its core members for significant stretches of time. The Cards should be healthier in 2017, and combined with the continued emergence of some of their younger contributors, they shouldn’t miss much of a beat at the plate.

St. Louis will need to make some decisions concerning its outfield, though. Matt Holliday is on his way out after eight years with the club. Brandon Moss is a free agent, and while the 28 homers were nice, he isn’t the most well-rounded of talents (.225/.300/.484). The Cardinals will look to do better there, and names like the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon and White Sox’s Adam Eaton have already surfaced in trade speculation.

More from Call to the Pen

If the Cards are going to get back into the postseason, they will need some better results from their pitching staff, the starting rotation in particular. Pursuing any of the middling options on the free agent market will likely create another Mike Leake situation. An ace like Chris Sale could be made available via trade, but that would cost a major prospect package and there are no guarantees there.

Some of the solutions could come from within. 22-year-old Alex Reyes, one of the Cardinals’ top prospects, made his debut in early August and shined down the stretch, posting a 1.57 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 12 appearances (five starts). If he gets the walks under control (4.5 BB/9), he could be a key weapon for the team in 2017. Luke Weaver could be another young arm who contributes, and St. Louis will look for more good things from Carlos Martinez.

A better showing from the defense would also do wonders for some of the team’s most under-performing arms. Adam Wainwright (0.69), Mike Leake (0.86) and Michael Wacha (1.18) all had notable discrepancies between their ERAs and FIPs. Bounce-backs from any of them would be a welcome development next year.

The Cards lost lefty reliever Zach Duke to Tommy John surgery for all of next season, so they’ll need someone to step up in response. They still have 27-year-old southpaw Kevin Siegrist (2.77 ERA in 61.2 IP), and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch mentions Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales as possible internal options (see previous link).

Next: Pirates 2016 Season in Review

St. Louis was quite consistent over the course of the season, but that in itself may have been a problem – they didn’t spin off any extended winning streaks to help vault them over the top. Experiencing a few well-timed hot stretches could make the difference in 2017.

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