Detroit Tigers: 2016 Season in Review

Continuing our 2016 season review series, we take a look at how the Detroit Tigers just missed a postseason ticket, despite having one of the highest payrolls in MLB.

For the Detroit Tigers, the 2016 season was an improvement over their 2015 last-place finish, and yet, it was somehow almost more of a disappointment. Although the Tigers finished eight games back in the division, they were in contention for a Wild Card spot right up until the bitter end.

A pair of losses to end the season eliminated Detroit from the playoff race, marking the second straight year without October baseball in the Motor City. For most teams, that wouldn’t be bad, especially when considering this will be the third straight season that another AL Central team has competed in the World Series. For a team with a nearly $200 million payroll, though, missing the playoffs is unacceptable.

The Tigers finished 2016 with an 86-75 record, good for second place in the AL Central. The season included the resurgence of ace Justin Verlander, who seemed to finally make adjustments after a decline in velocity over the past few seasons. It also included the opportunity for rookies like Michael Fulmer to make their mark on a historic franchise.

The Tigers just never seemed to collectively get going in the right direction, especially within their division. They were 38-37 against AL Central opponents, despite three of those four teams finishing at or well-below .500.

So what were the best and worst aspects of the Tigers season? Let’s review.

What Went Wrong?

The biggest thing that went wrong with the Tigers’ season was their inability to defeat the Cleveland Indians. The Tigers managed to go 4-14 against the Tribe thanks to some late inning wins, but they struggled all season long.

Detroit also had difficulty in handling the Kansas City Royals, going 7-12 against the defending World Champs. The Tigers’ struggles with the upper echelon of the division counterbalanced their 15-4 dominance of the 100-loss Minnesota Twins, as well as their 12-7 record against the White Sox.

Not having the upper-hand within the division was a primary reason for the Tigers’ results, but there were other disappointments as well.

Disappointing Pitching Performances

In 2015, Mark Lowe was one of the most dominant setup men in the game. Lowe pitched in parts of the year for Cleveland, Seattle and Toronto, before electing free agency in the off-season. The Tigers gave him a two-year deal worth $11 million, which now seems like a very questionable decision following his first season in Detroit.

This year, Lowe earned a 7.11 ERA in 49.1 innings, despite striking out 49 batters. That’s because he also gave up 57 hits and 21 walks, as well as 12 home runs. Altogether, he allowed 39 runs this season.

Lowe had never been truly dominant until last season, so asking a career middle reliever to be a lights-out setup man was probably a poor choice on Detroit’s part. There’s almost no way they can unload his contract for next year, so hopefully Lowe can turn things around in 2017.

Mike Pelfrey was similarly disappointing. This is another signing that seemed a bit unusual, given that Pelfrey’s last three seasons were spent as a very mediocre pitcher in a bad Minnesota Twins rotation. The Tigers gave him a two-year deal worth $16 million, and he thanked them by going 4-10 with a 5.07 ERA.

The bullpen as a whole underperformed, which has been a repeated issue for the Tigers over the last several seasons. Justin Wilson started strong, but seemed less effective as the season went on. Overall, this is an area that Detroit continues to struggle in. It may be time to consider whether the bullpen coaching staff needs a shakeup, as well.

Players Who Didn’t Live Up to Expectations

Jordan Zimmermann was lights-out to start the season, but injuries derailed the second half of his year. After signing a $110 million, five-year deal, Zimmermann simply didn’t live up to his cost.

But by far the worst pitching contract on the Detroit roster is that of Anibal Sanchez, who was a key cog in the Tigers rotation in 2012 and 2013. Last year, Sanchez posted a 4.99 ERA, and this season, he was even worse. In 153 innings, Sanchez owned a 5.87 ERA and struck out 135 batters. He walked 53 hitters, allowed 171 hits, and gave up a whopping 30 home runs.

In 2016, Sanchez made $16.8 million and he is set to make that next year as well, so there is absolutely no chance that anyone will take on his contract. The Tigers would have to eat a ton of salary, and wouldn’t get anything back in return for him due to his struggles. With those limitations, the team needs to hope that Sanchez has a bounceback season next year.

Similarly, the Tigers spent too much last winter to get Justin Upton. Upton will make $22.1 million in each of the next five seasons, unless he opts out of his contract after 2017. The Tigers aren’t dealing that contract, either – not after Upton batted .246/.310/.465.

A strong second half saved Upton from what was shaping up to be a historically bad season for someone with his salary. As it was, he finished with the worst season of his career. His 179 strikeouts were a personal high, and his .775 OPS was his lowest since his rookie campaign in 2007.

Optimists might point out that his 31 home runs were a boost to the Tigers, which is true, but Detroit deserves more consistency from such an expensive player.

What’s Next for the Tigers?

Since the Detroit Tigers missed the playoffs, they’re already in off-season mode. Earlier this week, general manager Al Avila told reporters that “this year is going to be different” in terms of how the Detroit team approaches the off-season.

According to the Detroit Free Press, Avila is taking a new approach:

“This year, we’re going to go out and talk to 29 other clubs and see how we can start, little by little, making this team leaner, younger, more efficient and, at the same time, staying competitive, trying to get to the playoffs. So that’s where the tightrope is that we’re walking on.”

The “little by little” line is likely a reference to the gigantic contracts that make up much of the Tigers’ roster. It’s nearly impossible to trade most of the players on the roster, so it may be difficult for the Tigers to accomplish what they want to in one off-season.

Some of the smaller but untradeable contracts – such as Pelfrey and Lowe – will fall off after 2017. Other contracts, like Verlander and Cabrera, extend well beyond that.

To complicate matters, the most expensive contracts – including Verlander, Cabrera and Victor Martinez – are untradeable due to the 5/10 rule. That provision allows players with ten years of service time, including five with their current team, to veto trades that they don’t like.

All three of those players are established as Detroit sports heroes, so even if the team convinced another club to take on the expense of one of them, it’s difficult to imagine the player agreeing to the deal.

Avila will have his work cut out for him. Most of the players with options – Cameron Maybin and Francisco Rodriguez – are players they would want to keep. Many of the players they would like to trade are unlikely to find any takers.

Next: A Look at the Cardinals 2016 Season

Balancing between competing and rebuilding is never an easy feat, and the Tigers’ oversized payroll complicates matters even further. Promising to continue to put a competitive product on the field is reassuring to fans, but creates a unique set of challenges for the front office.