Philadelphia Phillies: Time to Acquire a Bat?

With the offseason at hand, a veteran hitter for the heart of the order is atop the agenda for the Philadelphia Phillies, and the front office is also hoping to add outfielder Roman Quinn‘s speed to the lineup in April. 

But while fans have differing opinions on the next course of action, only general manager Matt Klentak will be responsible for the upcoming decisions. So, figuring out what the Philadelphia Phillies GM will do requires weighing his visible options.

The Right Fit:

When one factors in the cost, the risk, outside considerations, the commitment and its length, timing is the only influential element remaining.

Examining the stats on his computer, Klentak relives 2016’s highs and acknowledges his regulars’ shortcomings. And, recently, he revealed the players he’s happy with: Tommy Joseph, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez and Cameron Rupp. But after the head honcho pencils in Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, what holes are obvious? The corner outfield spots.

With the countdown to the final game, Double D, a poster from another site, posed a question regarding the Phils’ weak outfield production. Well, firstly, this area must improve for the next campaign because the pipeline has not filled these two openings.

In the past, the Dom Browns had every opportunity to succeed, but the current crew moves on more quickly than their predecessors. So, Darin Ruf, Cody Asche and Tyler Goeddel are competing for bench roles, but Goeddel will probably end up with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Of course, including one in a trade package is another avenue the higher-ups will explore, unless a reserve outfielder decides to ink a deal in Japan.

Becoming a bench piece because of his batting average, Aaron Altherr hasn’t succeeded either. And Nick Williams will need another summer with Lehigh Valley to dramatically improve his plate discipline; moreover, Klentak isn’t counting on either for 2017. However, Double D, neither outfielder has an elite tool: Quinn has speed, catcher Jorge Alfaro has power, and Vince Velasquez has 95-mph smoke. In other words, Quinn–.263 with 5 SB and a .373 OBP–will have the best shot at hitting second on Opening Day if he impresses the brass in spring training.

Scrutinizing his list of free agents and available outfielders on other rosters, Klentak knows two things: He needs at least a left-handed bat with pop for left field. Franco, Joseph and Rupp are his right-handers with power, while Herrera and Galvis can supply limited muscle from the left side: Galvis hit .249 with 17 long balls and 53 RBIs against right-handed pitching. So, the decision-maker envisions his 2017 lineup: SH Hernandez (1), SH Quinn (2), LH Hererra (3), RH Franco (4), LH outfielder (5), RH Joseph (6), RH Rupp (7) and SH Galvis (8).

IN OTHER WORDS: “I am dead set against free agency. It can ruin baseball.” –George Steinbrenner

Free-agent outfielders (left-handed hitters):

• Josh Reddick, 29.5, LAD: 439 PA, .281 Avg., 10 HR, 37 RBI and a .749 OPS with a $6.575 million contract for 2016. He hit 20 homers in 2015.
• Colby Rasmus, 30, HOU: 417 PA, .206 Avg., 15 HR, 54 RBI and a .641 OPS with a $15.8 million contract for 2016–he had Vertigo and dizziness in July and August.
• Michael Saunders, almost 30, TOR: 558 PA, .253 Avg., 24 HR, 57 RBI and an .815 OPS with a $2.9 million contract for 2016–he may not receive a QO (qualifying offer).
• Jon Jay, 31.5, SD: 373 PA, .291 Avg., 2 HR, 26 RBI and a .728 OPS with a $6.225 million contract for 2016.

Because the club went from the number-one pick overall in the 2016 MLB Draft to a higher selection in ’17, Klentak is overseeing an advanced stage of rebuilding. In other words, Double D, even though the franchise has the money, one signed hitter won’t produce a championship: They will fill the hole in the order with a moderately priced bat. But management is still evaluating their outfield talent from Double-A to the majors and doesn’t want to block the path of outfielder Dylan Cozens, who will be with the IronPigs next season. And if he’s ready for 2018 to join Herrera and Quinn, Klentak will only have a place for him if he acquires a stopgap now, like he did in the rotation with Jeremy Hellickson.

Prospect and trade candidates (left-handed hitters):

• Cozens, 22, AA: 586 PA, .276 Avg., 40 HR, 125 RBI and a .941 OPS.
• Jay Bruce, 29.5, NYM: 589 PA, .250 Avg., 33 HR, 99 RBI and a .815 OPS  with a $13 million club option for 2017. The Mets need catching.
• Carlos Gonzalez, 31, COL: 632 PA, .298 Avg., 25 HR, 100 RBI and an .855 OPS with a $20 million contract for 2017 (final season).
• Charlie Blackmon, 30, COL: 641 PA, .324 Avg., 29 HR, 82 RBI and a .933 OPS with an estimated $9.0 million contract for 2017 (second year of arbitration). The Rockies need catching.
• Parra, 29.5, COL: 381 PA, .253 Avg., 7 HR, 39 RBI and a .671 OPS with an $8 million contract for 2017 ($10 million for 2018) and ankle problems in ’16. He hit .291 with 14 homers in 2015.

While the exec reviews the available players through a deal or a signing, he expects to spend $10 million to $15 million per 162 for up to three campaigns, but he can trade that asset at any point. And his reasoning is to have a winning season (82 victories) and to be consistently within shouting distance of the Wild Card race with an above-.500 record. But as the numbers seem to run together with the names of free agents and two available outfielders on the Colorado Rockies (Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra), does one player catch his bargain-hunting eye? Jay Bruce.

While the right fielder isn’t strong defensively, he hit .265 with 29 homers and 80 RBIs through July’s end. And Bruce, 30 on April 3, might be on the trading block after a dismal two months with the New York Mets if they exercise his team option for $13 million. Keep in mind, Double D, reports indicated he didn’t want to play in New York and they need a catcher. So, the left-handed hitter will be working in ’17 toward a three-summer contract or more and be an excellent candidate for one campaign. Pick up the full $13 million. Give up less talent.

Although Bruce will be among the 2018 free agents like Carlos Gonzalez, he could be a stopgap for Cozens: a left-swinging right fielder who hit 40 home runs with 125 RBIs for the Reading Fightin Phils. Cozens, 22, will be with the IronPigs next year and could replace Bruce at the end of July if Klentak swaps the veteran. Ergo, why would you pay top dollar to sign a free agent before you’re ready to contend? The red pinstripes can easily be responsible for $13 million in ’17, the young squad can have their growing pains, and they’ll have a replacement one level away, which means they can win more than 82 games. How about 85 victories?