World Series 2016: Statistical and Positional Comparison

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The 2016 World Series gets underway on Tuesday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland between the host Indians and the Chicago Cubs.

The 112th World Series, the championship of Major League Baseball for the 2016 season, will get underway with Game One on Tuesday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

The Cleveland Indians were champions of the American League Central Division with a record of 94-67, swept the Boston Red Sox in three straight in the ALDS, then defeated the Toronto Blue Jays in five games in the ALCS.

The Chicago Cubs were champions of the National League Central Division with a record of 103-58, downed the San Francisco Giants in four games in the NLDS, then beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in six games in the NLCS.

Despite producing nine fewer victories during the regular season, the Tribe has home field advantage for the Fall Classic thanks to the American League’s 4-2 win in the All-Star Game back in mid-July.

It goes without saying that these are two of baseball’s best ball clubs. You simply do not reach the World Series without being one of the handful of best teams in the game.

Beyond the standings, a look at some of the statistics for the two teams reveals just how good they are, and demonstrates that this series could be evenly contested.

The Cubs were 3rd in MLB in runs scored and extra-base hits, while the Indians ranked 5th in both categories.

Chicago finished 2nd in On-Base Percentage, while Cleveland ranked 8th in that category.

Cleveland runs more and better. The Tribe were 4th in all of baseball in steals, 2nd in stolen base percentage.

The Cubbies were way down at 20th in steals and 25th in stolen base percentage.

Chicago has the better overall defense with a unit that is the best in the game today per Baseball Prospectus rankings on Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

PADE measures the percentage of balls in play which a defense converts into outs, with a park adjustment factor. The Indians, ranked 10th, are not likely to hurt themselves in that aspect of the game.

On the mound, the Cubs pitching staff had the lowest Batting Average Against of any team in baseball by a wide margin. The Indians hurlers, ranked 5th, were very good themselves in this area.

The Cubs were 3rd and the Indians 4th in strikeouts. Chicago 1st and Cleveland 6th in WHIP.

One area where the Tribe clearly out-performed the Cubs was in Caught Stealing Percentage, where the Indians ranked 3rd while the Cubs were just the 25th ranked team.

The two skippers, Terry Francona of Cleveland and Joe Maddon of Chicago, are widely considered among the best in the game today.

Both Francona and Maddon are experts in motivating their personnel and in managing a game. There is not likely to be an edge here based on any mistakes by either man.

Let’s take a position-by-position look at the two combatants, and then at the end I will reveal my prediction for the winner of the 2016 World Series.

FIRST BASE

Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs hit for a .292/.385/.544 slash line over 676 plate appearances across 155 games in the regular season with 32 homers, 79 extra-base hits, 109 RBI, 94 runs scored, and a 146 OPS+ mark.

Mike Napoli of the Indians hit for a .239/.335/.465 slash line over 645 plate appearances across 150 games in the regular season with 34 homers, 57 extra-base hits, 101 RBI, 92 runs scored, and a 104 OPS+ mark.

Rizzo ranked 2nd in defensive WAR by Fangraphs at the position, while Napoli was down as the 17th ranked defensive first baseman.

The Tribe will also use Carlos Santana at first base, but I think that he is going to see more DH action in this series, so will cover him in the DH/bench section.

These are two gamers and team leaders, each capable of coming up with the big blow in a pivotal moment. But Rizzo is simply an all-around better player than Napoli.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

SECOND BASE

Ben Zobrist played in 119 games at second base, 113 of those as starts, for the Cubs in the regular season.

Javier Baez, who has received the vast majority of playing time at the position during this postseason, appeared in 59 games at second base during the season, with 38 of those as starts.

Zobrist hit for a .272/.386/.446 slash line over 631 plate appearances in 147 games with 18 homers, 52 extra-base hits, 76 RBI, 94 runs scored, and a 124 OPS+ mark.

Baez hit for a .273/.314/.423 slash line in 450 plate appearances over 142 games with 14 homers, 59 RBI, 34 extra-base hits, 50 runs scored, 12 stolen bases, and a 96 OPS+ mark.

Zobrist has started at a half-dozen different positions, while Baez has made starts at five different spots. Maddon gets a ton of flexibility and versatility, not to mention production, from these two players.

For the Tribe, Jason Kipnis hit for a .275/.343/.469 slash line in 688 plate appearances over 156 games with 23 homers, 68 extra-base hits, 82 RBI, 91 runs scored, 15 steals, and a 107 OPS+ mark.

Defensively, Kipnis ranked 8th in Fangraphs WAR at the position, with Zobrist ranked 11th in baseball. The athletic Baez makes highlight reel plays, but also can make youthful mistakes.

Again, all three are good players. But as much as a gamer as Kipnis may be, and as talented as he is, the Cubs duo has just as much of both traits. Their positional versatility carries the day.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

SHORTSTOP

Addison Russell is the Cubs’ 22-year-old entry in Major League Baseball’s outstanding crop of new young shortstops.

He hit for just a .238/.321/.417 slash line in 598 plate appearances over 151 games, but with pop: 21 homers, 49 extra-base hits, and 95 RBI. Russell scored 67 runs and had a 97 OPS+ mark.

Francisco Lindor is the Indians’ own 22-year-old (he turns 23 in three weeks) entry in that new shortstop crop.

Lindor hit for a .301/.358/.435 slash in 684 plate appearances over 158 games. He contributed 15 homers, 48 extra-base hits, 78 RBI, 99 runs scored, and stole 19 bases.

Lindor was also 3rd in Fangraphs defensive WAR at shortstop among all MLB players at the position, while Russell ranked 7th on the list.

Yet another position where there is genuine talent on both clubs. But I like Lindor’s all-around game a little better. Better defensively, more speed, but without surrendering all in pop.

ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND

THIRD BASE

Jose Ramirez hit for a .312/.363/.462 slash over 618 plate appearances in 152 games in his first season as a full-time starter at age 23 for the Indians.

Ramirez had just 11 home runs, but he stole 22 bases, drove in 76 and scored 84 runs, and had 60 extra-base hits thanks to his banging and legging out 49 doubles.

Kris Bryant might be the NL’s Most Valuable Player this season. The Cubs third sacker was the NL Rookie of the Year last season, and became an NL All-Star for the 2nd time this year as a 24-year-old.

Bryant hit for a .292/.385/.554 slash line in 699 plate appearances over 155 games. He bashed 39 homers drove in 102 and scored 121 runs.

Defensively, Bryant was ranked 1st in the big league by Fangraphs WAR at third base, while Ramirez was no slouch as the 8th rated defender.

While Ramirez is a nice little player and had a fine season, Bryant is one of the most talented young stars in the game today with a potential Hall of Fame future.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

CATCHER

The Cubs have a pair of veterans in Miguel Montero and David Ross. But it is 24-year-old rookie Willson Contreras who has perhaps come up the biggest for them in this postseason run.

Montero hit for a .216/.327/.357 slash over 86 games and 284 plate appearances with eight homers, 33 RBI and runs, and 17 extra-base hits after losing much of his season to a knee injury.

Ross is known as Jon Lester‘s caddy and is playing in what he has already announced will be his final season. He hit for a .229/.338/.446 slash line over 67 games and 205 plate appearances with 10 homers, 42 RBI, 24 runs, and 16 extra-base hits.

Contreras is likely the Cubs future at the position. He hit for a .282/.357/.488 slash over 282 plate appearances and 76 games.

Contreras produced 12 homers, 35 RBI, 33 runs, and 27 XBH in that short time. He also played 24 games in left field and three at first base.

Yan Gomes saw the most action as part of a three-man tandem behind the dish for the Tribe this season before breaking his hand in mid-September.

He was able to return to the roster, but has not seen much postseason action as yet. Gomes hit just .167/.201/.327 with nine homers, 34 RBI and 21 extra-base hits over 74 games and 264 plate appearances.

Roberto Perez has seen most of the postseason action. He went .183/.285/.295 on the season with ten extra-base hits over 184 plate appearances in 61 games.

Chris Gimenez hit just .216/.272/.331 with eight extra-base hits in 155 plates appearances over 68 games. He is not on the World Series roster, however.

Ross, who sees the least action behind the plate in Chicago except when Lester is on the bump, was the highest rated of all these players at 8th in Fangraphs defensive WAR among catchers.

However, it is the dynamic presence of Contreras that makes the Cubs trio better than that of the Indians.

Ross is good with Lester, Contreras has the most talent of all these players, and Montero is a solid, proven veteran when healthy.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

OUTFIELD

The Cubs’ starting outfield in this World Series is somewhat up in the air outside of center fielder Dexter Fowler, though Jason Heyward is almost assuredly going to be the right field starter.

Left field could be manned at various times by Zobrist, Contreras, Bryant, Jorge Soler or Chris Coghlan.

It is more likely that Bryant stays at third base now, so the choice of Zobrist, Soler, Contreras or Coghlan as the starting LF could be a game-by-game decision for Maddon.

Soler is a wild card. The talented but injury-prone Cuban hit for just a .238/.333/.436 in 264 plate appearances over 86 games while missing most of June and all of July.

Soler has not seen much action in October. He is just 0-8 across a half-dozen postseason at-bats with two walks, and has made just two starts.

Fowler hit for a .276/.393/447 slash in 551 plate appearances over 125 games with 13 homers, 45 XBH, 48 RBI, 84 runs scored, and 13 steals.

Heyward hit .230/.306/.325 with seven homers, 49 RBI, 61 runs, and 11 steals in 592 plate appearances over 142 games.

Heyward in RF is one of the best defensive players in the game, ranking 2nd in Fangraphs WAR at the position.

With defense a premium in postseason games, Heyward is sure to remain on the roster and in the lineup despite a weak bat.

The Indians lost one of their better all-around players way back in early May when starting left fielder Michael Brantley injured his left shoulder. He has been out since then and will not return for the World Series.

The left field time is likely to go to either 36-year-old Rajai Davis or 30-year-old Brandon Guyer.

Davis hit for a .249/.306/.388 slash line with 12 homers, 48 RBI, 37 XBH, 74 runs scored, and an AL-leading 43 stolen bases in 495 plate appearances over 134 games.

Guyer came to Cleveland in an August 1 deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, and hit for a .333/.438/.469 slash with 14 RBI and 12 runs over 96 plate appearances in 38 post-trade games.

Center fielder Tyler Naquin is a switch-hitting rookie who hit for a .296/.372/.514 line with 14 homers, 43 RBI, 37 XBH, and 52 runs scored in 365 plate appearances over 116 games.

Lonnie Chisenhall will play right field. He hit .286/.326/.439 with eight homers, 57 RBI, 38 XBH and 43 runs scored in 418 plate appearances over 126 games.

These are not dynamic offensive outfield groups. Fowler may be the best all-around player, Heyward the best defender.

Davis easily has the most impactful speed game, Zobrist is the best hitter. Defensively, the Cubs group would appear to be better.

This could be a chance for one of the young kids, either Soler with the Cubs or Naquin with the Indians, to step up on a big stage and begin making a name for himself.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

DESIGNATED HITTER / BENCH

Carlos Santana served as the designated hitter for the Indians for 92 games this season and will do the bulk of that work in the World Series.

The 30-year-old switch-hitter is also likely to play first base at Wrigley Field against the Cubs right-handed starting pitching.

Santana hit for a .259/.366/.498 slash with 34 home runs, 68 XBH, 87 RBI, and 89 runs in 688 plate appearances over 158 games. When Santana is at first base in the Windy City, Napoli will be available off the bench.

Coco Crisp in the outfield and Michael Martinez on the infield will likely see any substitute action for Francona, as well as Guyer and whomever isn’t starting behind the plate on a given night between Gomes and Perez.

For the Cubs, all the talk has been about the return of Schwarber to serve as the DH for the World Series. That was finalized this morning with his inclusion on the roster.

Schwarber is a lefty bat, and the Indians are not likely to put any southpaws on the mound as starting pitchers, so he is likely to see the bulk of the at-bats in Cleveland.

In addition to Schwarber as a lefty bat off the bench in Chicago, the Cubs have added young Albert Almora for the World Series as well.

Those two will join Coghlan, whomever isn’t starting at catcher, and possibly Zobrist or Baez at times as keys off the bench.

While the return of Schwarber is interesting, the fact is that Santana is a proven commodity in the DH role, which also takes a certain mindset in order to be successful. The bench options look a wash to me.

ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND

STARTING ROTATION

While the talk has been about Schwarber’s activation from injury to the World Series roster, the Indians have their own important returnee as well in starting pitcher Danny Salazar.

Corey Kluber will start the opener for the Indians, and there is talk that their ace could go three times in this World Series.

Kluber was the 2014 AL Cy Young Award winner and an AL All-Star this season. He went 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, and 149 ERA+ while allowing just 170 hits in 215 innings with a 227/57 K:BB ratio.

The starters for the next two games are slated to be Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, in that order.

Bauer had to famously be removed from his last ALCS start early due to a cut on his finger suffered while repairing a homemade drone.

It is believed that Bauer’s cut will be sufficiently healed that he can make the start on Wednesday night. If he needs another couple of days, the Tribe could flip-flop he and Tomlin.

Tomlin is less dynamic than Bauer, but is the unflappable veteran type who could fare much better in the hostile environment at Wrigley Field.

The Indians lost a big piece to their rotation when Carlos Carrasco, their second-best starting pitcher this season, fractured his hand and was lost for the season.

As the series moves along, a decision on whether to actually go with Kluber on short rest could be determined by the outcomes of the first three games. Francona could opt to go with Salazar at some point.

Salazar last pitched on September 9th, and went 11-6 over 25 starts in which he allowed 121 hits over 137.1 innings with a 161/63 K:BB ratio.

The Cubs will line up Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey as their rotation for the World Series. Lester is likely to be the only southpaw starting on the mound for either team.

The Indians start out at home with their ace on the mound. They almost desperately need a huge game from Kluber to give them the lead.

Chicago’s group was one of the best, arguably the best, in all of baseball this season.

The Indians at full strength could provide a tough matchup. But without Carrasco and a limited Salazar, they are not at full strength.

ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

RELIEVERS / BULLPEN

These are two of the best relievers corps in the business, highlighted by two of the most dominating left-handed shutdown men in the game today.

The Indians feature lefty Andrew Miller, who Francona will call on at any time from the middle innings on to put the fire out in a key spot, and who can go multiple innings.

Miller was the ALCS MVP, and over 70 games this season split between the Indians and New York Yankees he allowed just 42 hits in 74.1 innings with an unreal 123/9 K:BB ratio.

On the Cubs side that shutdown lefty is closer Aroldis Chapman, who also spent the first part of the year with the Yanks before a trade.

Chapman allowed just 32 hits over 58 innings with a dominating 90/18 K:BB ratio.

Maddon will have right-handers Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards and Justin Grimm and left-handers Mike Montgomery and Travis Wood available out of his bullpen.

Francona can call upon any from among righties Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Mike Clevinger, Jeff Manship, Zach McAllister and possibly even Salazar. His lefty options are limited to Miller and Merritt.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

WORLD SERIES 2016 PREDICTION

If you roll through those previous breakdown areas of each team, you will find that I have the Cubs earning a 5-2-1 edge on the playing field.

The two managers, Maddon and Francona, are a push to me. Both among the best in the sport today, each of whom will keep their teams focused and motivated, no matter the developing situation.

With management even, it should come down to those players on the field, and let’s just be frank – the Chicago Cubs were the best all-around team in Major League Baseball this season, hands down.

More from Call to the Pen

Theo Epstein has done the same outstanding job here in Chicago that he did previously in Boston.

Just as he put together the team that shed the century old “Curse of the Bambino”, is says here that his current effort is about to shed the “Curse of the Billy Goat” as well.

For me, the Indians best chance is to win behind Kluber gems twice, and then find some way to win two more games. I think it is more likely that the Cubs get to four first.

I have tremendous respect for what Francona and the Indians have done in 2016.

But I simply believe that the Cubs are too good, and that this is indeed the year. I am going to call it as Cubs over Indians in five games.

Next: Can Cubs Forgive Bartman?

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