Toronto Blue Jays 2016 Season in Review: Good, Bad and What's Next

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Once again, the Toronto Blue Jays were defeated in the ALCS, dashing their hopes one step shy of the World Series. Let’s take a look at the good and not-so-good aspects of their journey.

For the second straight year, the Toronto Blue Jays‘ season ended in the American League Championship Series. You can look at that from a glass-half-full or half-empty perspective. To reach that stage of the postseason two years running is an impressive feat in its own right. But to fall short of the World Series both times after coming so close is maddeningly frustrating.

The Jays’ path to the playoffs in 2016 was a bit more challenging than the year before, however. Last season, buoyed by a couple blockbuster deadline deals, Toronto won 93 games and captured its first AL East division title since 1993. This year, they amassed 89 victories, finishing behind the Boston Red Sox in the division and taking one of the league’s two Wild Card berths.

The Blue Jays actually got off to somewhat of a slow start, posting an 11-14 record in April. But from there they began to take off, going 65-43 over the next four months. A late-season slump almost cost them, though, as they went 11-16 in September and desperately clung on to a postseason spot amid competition from multiple teams. They won their final two contests of the regular season, however, to punch their ticket to the playoffs.

Toronto dispatched division rival Baltimore at home in the AL Wild Card by a score of 5-2 in 11 innings, as Edwin Encarnacion delivered a walk-off three-run homer. Like last year, they faced the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, but instead of needing five games to defeat them, they swept them in three. The Jays failed to put up much of a fight against the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS, though, scoring only eight runs in the series’ five contests – five of which came in Game 4.

Though it all came to a screeching halt, there was still much to keep Blue Jays fans excited throughout the campaign. Let’s take a closer look at the highs, lows, and everything in between.

Next: The Good

What Went Right?

Last year’s Toronto Blue Jays developed a reputation as an offensive juggernaut whose power-hitting ways more than made up for any deficiencies in their pitching staff. Many thought that with the departure of David Price, the team would be under even more pressure to put enough runs on the board, but that more or less proved untrue.

After their starters posted a 12th-ranked 3.96 ERA in 2015, the Jays rotation moved all the way up to fourth place this year with a 3.64 mark. A surprisingly great year from J.A. Happ and a breakout effort from 24-year-old Aaron Sanchez had a lot to do with that.

Happ turned in arguably the best performance of his 10-year big league career, winning 20 games to the tune of a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 2.72 K/BB ratio. He made the three-year, $36 million contract the Jays gave him last offseason look like a sound investment. Though he underwent some innings management later in the year, Sanchez took the mound 30 times and was impressive as well, notching 15 victories of his own while twirling a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Marco Estrada rounded out a very solid top three, putting up a 3.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while striking out 8.4 batters per nine. Midseason acquisition Francisco Liriano also did well down the stretch, managing a 2.92 ERA in 10 outings.

The improvement out of the starting rotation meant the offense didn’t have to be quite as supercharged. Which was good, because they weren’t. The Jays remained one of the more productive lineups in baseball, ranking ninth in both runs scored (759) and OPS (.755), and fourth in home runs (221). That’s a noticeable slide from 2015, when they led all teams in runs (891), home runs (232) and OPS (.797).

However, there were still plenty of weapons up and down the batting order. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson followed up with another award-caliber season, slashing .284/.404/.549 with 37 homers and 99 RBI. The ever-reliable Edwin Encarnacion generated a .263/.357/.529 line while leading the AL with 127 RBI and tying his career-high with 42 long balls.

Though he fell off a cliff in the second half, Michael Saunders enjoyed a surprisingly solid season overall, batting .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs and 57 RBI. The Canada native earned his first ever All-Star nod for his work before the break.

Over in the bullpen, closer Roberto Osuna remained one of the most formidable young relievers in the game. He racked up 36 saves with a 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 5.86 K/BB. And he’s still just 21 years old.

Next: The Bad

What Went Wrong?

Jose Bautista certainly didn’t have the walk year he envisioned at the beginning of the season. He missed 46 games due to toe and knee injuries. And when he did manage to take the field, his performance at the plate wasn’t exactly up to par with what we’ve become used to seeing from him. He slashed .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI. For comparison’s sake, Bautista averaged a .268/.390/.555 slash with 38 homers and 97 RBI from 2010 to 2015. The 36-year-old is eligible for free agency this winter.

Maintaining the injury angle, second baseman Devon Travis missed 61 games as he continued to work his way back from shoulder surgery. He also picked up a knee injury in the postseason that will reportedly require arthroscopic surgery in the offseason, but he’s expected to be ready on time in the spring. When Travis did play this season, he slashed .300/.332/.454 with 11 homers. And though he only stole four bases, in the future his quickness could help add another element to a Jays offense that has seemed one-dimensional at times. Toronto will hope he remains healthy throughout 2017.

Troy Tulowitzki missed 31 games (quad, thumb), but given his extensive injury history, the Blue Jays would probably accept that as a given most years. Nevertheless, the shortstop seems to be getting further away from his All-Star past, slashing a modest .254/.318/.443 on the season, though he did add 24 home runs. He’s still under contract through at least 2020.

Justin Smoak spent a lot of time at first base and he still hasn’t been able to live up to the expectations that once made him a coveted prospect. The 29-year-old posted a .217/.314/.391 with 14 homers in 126 contests. Rather perplexingly, the Jays signed him to a two-year extension in July. The deal is only worth $8.25 million, but it will keep a fairly disappointing player on the books for two more seasons.

Many thought starting pitcher Marcus Stroman would have a big year, but the right-hander put up a mediocre 4.37 ERA over 32 outings. However, he did manage to log over 200 innings after missing nearly all of last season. Still only 25, the Jays expect better things ahead.

And if you thought R.A. Dickey might rediscover his Cy Young form (anyone?) in what was likely his final season in a Blue Jays uniform, you were once again let down. The knuckleballer posted a 4.46 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 169.2 innings. Having just turned 42, retirement could be next for the veteran hurler. Meanwhile, Toronto will keep doing its best not to think too much about Noah Syndergaard.

Next: The Future

Now What?

Foremost on the Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason agenda will be deciding how to handle impending free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. General manager Ross Atkins recently said that he plans to extend qualifying offers to both players. Encarnacion will undoubtedly reject his, but could Bautista actually accept in hopes of rebuilding his value next year after an underwhelming, injury-slowed campaign? It seems unlikely, but crazier things have happened.

Regardless, the team will have a variety of factors to consider when it comes to its free agent sluggers. For one thing, Bautista is 36 and Encarnacion will be 34. How many years are the Jays comfortable giving to each of them? Michael Saunders will also be eligible to test the market. Do the Jays make an effort to keep him around, too? That will likely depend on which of his first or second half they believe is closer to reality.

With Dickey out the door, Toronto could be in the market to add a starter as well. Although with Liriano in the fold for another year, it’s not the most pressing need. The free agent market isn’t very tantalizing, but they could take a cheap flyer on someone as depth for the back-end of the rotation. The Blue Jays are also expected to try making their lineup more left-handed, along with fortifying the bullpen and perhaps identifying a new backup catcher.

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Toronto faces more uncertainty than most teams heading into the winter, and in a highly competitive division, they can’t really afford to slip backwards. Securing Encarnacion feels like it should be their top priority, and if that domino falls, the rest could slide into place. With their immediate window to compete hanging in the balance, the Jays will hope to come out on the other side mostly intact. Look for our offseason suggestions for the club later today.

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