Toronto Blue Jays Top Five 2016-17 Offseason Priorities

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The Toronto Blue Jays want to clear the ALCS hurdle, but they have some big decisions to make this offseason. Here are their five top priorities.

After being bounced in the ALCS for the second straight year, the Toronto Blue Jays head into offseason with some major choices to make. Two players who have been cornerstones of their lineup for the past several seasons are eligible for free agency. Whatever happens with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista will largely shape the franchise’s outlook for 2017.

The last two years have featured the Jays’ best run of success since they won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. It will be up to President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro and General Manager Ross Atkins to ensure that success continues. When the club dealt for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki prior to the 2015 trade deadline, there was a sense they were making a bid to win in a very small window. After all, Price would likely leave in free agency (he did) and Encarnacion and Bautista would be eligible a year later. (It’s also worth keeping in mind that Josh Donaldson is signed for just two more seasons.)

Fortunately for Toronto, several young players have emerged over the past year or so who could be part of the team’s core beyond the immediate future. While keeping those powerful veteran bats is an important part of the formula, it no longer looks like the only ingredient. The Jays have become known for their potent offense, but the starting rotation took a definite leap forward in 2016, led by pitchers like Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. And despite an up-and-down year, the club should feel good about Marcus Stroman‘s future as well.

The Blue Jays have the pieces in play to make themselves a more well-rounded squad for years to come. Doing so should help keep that window open longer than initially expected. For next season, though, the goal is clear: get that ALCS monkey of their backs and advance to the franchise’s first Fall Classic in nearly a quarter century.

So without further ado, here are five issues the team should prioritize this offseason if they want to get there.

Next: Pay the Man

Re-Sign Edwin Encarnacion

Keeping both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista was always going to be a tall task. So the Toronto Blue Jays should not really make that their explicit goal. Instead, they need to turn the bulk of their focus toward keeping Encarnacion in a Jays uniform.

Encarnacion makes sense as the preferred target for a variety of reasons. For one thing, he’s a couple years younger than Bautista, which gives the team a bit more room to work with in terms of offering a multi-year contract. He also turned in a much better performance in 2016. While injuries limited Bautista to 116 games and a .234/.366/.452 slash line, Encarnacion kept doing what he’s been doing in Toronto for the past eight seasons.

Splitting time between DH and first base, Encarnacion slashed .263/.357/.529, matched his career high with 42 homers, and drove in an AL-high 127 runs. Since 2011, he has averaged a .272/.363/.531 slash, 35 long balls, 101 RBI and 144 games played per season. You would be hard-pressed to find many sluggers that reliable and consistent over that span.

As a result, the Jays shouldn’t be afraid to go the extra mile to keep Encarnacion in blue and white. He won’t lack for suitors (such as the division rival Red Sox), so Toronto may need to pay a bit more than they would normally be comfortable with. But that’s typically what happens when signing a power hitter on the free agent market. A three- or four-year pact would be ideal, keeping him under wraps through his age 36 or 37 season, at which point you would hope his production had not yet declined that much. If a competing offer pushes the Jays to five years, they should not let that be the determining factor in letting him go either.

Playing primarily as a DH should also help Encarnacion remain reasonably productive into his late 30s, which should put the Jays’ minds further at ease. It’s hard to see him not fully testing the market, but Toronto should put a full-court press on him during the five-day exclusive negotiation period. At the very least it could lay the groundwork toward an eventual deal. Moving quickly could help the Blue Jays secure an agreement at a number they find acceptable.

Next: Draw the Line

No More Than 2 Years to Bautista

As for the other half of the dynamic duo, the Toronto Blue Jays should adopt a more hard-line stance with Jose Bautista. Give the veteran at most a two-year offer, and if he doesn’t bite, go your separate ways.

Bautista just turned 36, so stretching beyond a contract of that length seems destined to be a bad move. Two years would take him through his age 37 season, which could be pushing it as it is in light of his recent injury troubles. Bautista’s production in 116 games this year was by no means awful, but disappointing when compared to his recent standards. He slashed .234/.366/.452 with 22 home runs and 69 RBI after posting a .250/.377/.536 line, 40 homers and 114 RBI the year before. Though his average and power numbers were down, he still demonstrated his ability to draw walks, but if Bautista is going to get paid, it’s going to be for hitting the ball out of the park.

Refusing to go more than two years on Bautista could effectively be saying goodbye to him. With power at such a premium, it’s not too difficult to imagine a team offering him a three-year deal in spite of his age and the underwhelming season he just had. But cutting ties with Bautista could allow the Jays to explore some other intriguing possibilities.

If Bautista leaves, that could open Toronto up to pursue an outfielder like Yoenis Cespedes or Mark Trumbo, sluggers who would feel right at home in the Jays lineup. That would require the team to loosen its purse strings even more, but when you’re chasing a championship, that is often the nature of the game.

Next: Threats from Both Sides

Add More Left-Handed Bats

One item the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly want to cross off their to-do list this offseason is making their lineup more left-handed. The squad’s overreliance on right-handed bats seemed to hamper them at times, especially in the playoffs. Manager John Gibbons said as much in his post-season press conference:

“Better balance would’ve made a difference. I think it was too easy at times for opposing pitchers, if they’re right-handed let’s say, or they found their groove and never really had to adjust anything. Even a good, solid left-hander that could find that groove with his off-speed stuff and things like that he never really had to change a whole lot either … I think something like that might have made a big difference and help get some things going.”

The desire for lefties could compel the Jays to guarantee switch-hitting first baseman (and freshly extended) Justin Smoak a role moving forward, despite his continued disappointing production. They also might consider making an effort to keep Michael Saunders in the fold, though his first and second half splits this year paint a rather alarming picture. After slashing .298/.372/.551 with 16 home runs and 42 RBI before the break (and earning an All-Star nod), he cratered to a .178/.282/.357 line, eight homers and 15 RBI in the second half.

Given Saunders’ rather unremarkable career numbers, it’s worth wondering if his first half explosion was something of a fluke. He was one of the few Jays hitters to thrive in this year’s postseason, however, batting .381/.409/.571 in eight games. That gives the club something else to chew on.

If the Blue Jays really want to shoot for the moon, they could revisit their interest in the Reds’ Joey Votto. Toronto reportedly held “serious discussions” with Cincinnati about the first baseman before the trade deadline. Though the cost would surely be considerable, Votto makes a lot of sense for this Jays team. He hits for average, power and is an absolute on-base machine – his career .425 OBP is the highest among active players. He would be a clear upgrade over Smoak at first and would help fill the bases for the Jays’ other boppers.

On the other hand, going the free agent route if Bautista exits could lead the club to consider Josh Reddick or the switch-hitting Dexter Fowler.

Next: Mix It Up

Diversify the Offense

In the previously mentioned interview, John Gibbons also suggested that the Blue Jays needed to become a more multi-dimensional offense:

“We’re an all-or-nothing type offense. That’s the reality whether we like that or not … A little bit more team speed would go a long way. We weren’t a fast team but [that] kind of goes hand in hand with a lot of slugging type teams.”

Bashing your way to victory all summer can be fun, and it tends to work against bad teams. But when you get to the postseason and face the best of the best, good pitching always seems to shut down good hitting. Live by the home run, die by the home run – and that’s more or less what happened to the Jays in the ALCS. They scored eight runs over the series’ five games (five of them in Game 4) and hit just two round-trippers. The Cleveland Indians’ lockdown bullpen simply overpowered the Jays sluggers.

Losing one or both of Encarnacion and Bautista could effectively force Toronto to become a different type of offense. But even if they do managed to retain at least one star, it’s probably a good idea anyway. Adding more contact hitters and on-base threats could help diversify the lineup, which is why someone like Votto (.326/.434/.550 this year) seems like such a good fit.

However, the Jays do have some of the parts needed to change their approach already on their roster. Though he’s dealt with injuries the past two seasons, 25-year-old second baseman Devon Travis could use his speed and quickness more often on the base paths. They could also push Kevin Pillar (team-leading 14 steals) to swipe a few more. That goes against the Jays’ philosophy in recent years, but their 54 stolen bases as a team this season ranked 25th in the league, so they could definitely stand to improve in that regard.

Next: Some Relief

Build the Bridge to Osuna

The Toronto Blue Jays will have some questions to answer about their bullpen as well. There’s been some chatter about possibly stretching Roberto Osuna out to try him again as a starter, but that’s likely just idle speculation. The 21-year-old has developed into one of the game’s better closers, notching 36 saves this season to the tune of a 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 5.86 K/BB.

With a rotation that suddenly appears quite robust, the Jays will need to address the middle part of their bullpen connecting their starters to Osuna in the ninth inning. They traded for Jason Grilli from the Braves at the end of May, and the veteran righty did a fairly good job, managing a 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 42 innings. Atkins recently described picking up his $3 million option for next year as a “no-brainer,” and it’s hard not to agree. Though he turns 40 next month, he has averaged 12.2 K/9 over the last five years and has enough closing experience that he could easily fill in if Osuna gets hurt.

More from Call to the Pen

Joaquin Benoit, another midseason trade acquisition, will be a free agent. He was brilliant for Toronto, allowing only one run in 23.2 frames. However, a torn calf muscle prevented him from pitching in the postseason. Like Grilli, he’s getting up there in years, too, at age 39. In spite of how good he was after the trade, it’s probably a good idea for the Jays to go in a younger direction. It’s also worth keeping in mind that struggled in Seattle for the first part of the season, posting a 5.18 ERA over 24.1 innings.

Brett Cecil is eligible for free agency as well. The 30-year-old took a step back this year, putting up a 3.93 ERA in 36.2 frames after averaging a 2.67 mark over the previous three campaigns. He also spent some time on the DL with a strained left triceps. Nevertheless, he’s a lefty and has consistently posted a 10.0+ K/9, so it makes sense for the Jays to explore bringing Cecil back on a cheap, short-term deal.

The free agent market has some high-end closers, which the Jays obviously won’t be shopping for, but there are some other options worth considering. Brad Ziegler did well for the Red Sox this year in a seventh and eighth inning role. Neftali Feliz and Sergio Romo also have experience both closing and setting up. Or they could court a reclamation project like Greg Holland.

Next: Blue Jays 2016 Season Review

The Blue Jays have some internal choices as well. If they get another starter, Francisco Liriano could slide into the pen. Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes and Bo Schultz could also be given more opportunities.

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