Philadelphia Phillies: Rebuilding the Lineup
Before spring training provides a fresh breath of air to stimulate our hopes, the front office will consider trade proposals and/or make offers to free agents regarding a left-handed bat with pop for a corner outfield spot on the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Starting Eight:
If you have more than one opportunity, you might overcome every obstacle on an extremely challenging path.
Regarding restructuring progress, the numbers are a tale of opposites: No acquired starting pitcher is out of the running, and no new outfield possibility has landed a regular role. For instance, even if general manager Matt Klentak does not re-sign or pick up a veteran to head the rotation, not every young arm from last summer would be starter in April. Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson and Alec Asher are six hurlers for a maximum five openings.
Fixing the offense is this offseason’s priority, but the catcher, first baseman, second sacker, shortstop, third baseman and center fielder were here–surprising stats and all–before the new execs. Granted, Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and shortstop J.P. Crawford are the previous pipeline candidates; whereas receiver Jorge Alfaro and outfielder Nick Williams are the rebuilding pieces from the Texas Rangers. Of course, Quinn will have competition from Altherr, Cody Asche and Darin Ruf in Clearwater if they are still with the organization.
In the leadoff spot, Cesar Hernandez hit .294 and effectively worked the count, which exceeded manager Pete Mackanin’s appraisal after their conversation. Pulling his infielder aside, the skipper had “colorfully” voiced his expectations. What did he say to him? He’s a .280 hitter. Eventually, he’ll learn to read pitchers from first base, overcome his timidness on the base paths, and trust his instincts. What’s his problem? Afraid to make a mistake.
Passing Quinn on the way back to the dugout, Hernandez tipped off the rookie about the starter’s stuff and approach. In other words, the location of his fastball and the movement on his breaking ball helped Quinn add information to the scouting report. Yes, Steve Henderson, the batting coach for ’16, covered the film and the scheduled hurlers’ tendencies during the meeting at the beginning of the series; but nothing can replace seeing them firsthand. The pointers from Hernandez, however, told Quinn the right-hander’s effectiveness on that particular night. Currently, Quinn has the inside track to steal a regular corner position because the switch-hitting outfielder produced a .263 average with five swiped bases.
When Quinn joined the Philadelphia Phillies on September 11, his presence in the order was a spark for Odubel Herrera, who then hit .391 with five pilfered bags for the remaining contests. And you can expect the same in April because the center fielder admitted his reignited fire was due to Quinn’s call-up. Additionally, when number 37 caused havoc with his long between-pitches ritual, he coincidentally put the defense on their heels, but he was really thinking about the battery’s game plan. He was quickly running the scouting report, the video, his book on the moundsman and his stuff that day through his mind.
IN OTHER WORDS: “You can’t think and hit the ball at the same time.” —Yogi Berra
Mackanin spoke with Herrera during his exit interview, and the manager reminded his center fielder again to cut down on his strikeouts, to work the count for hittable pitches, and to build up his endurance for a whole 162. Ergo, the boss doesn’t want Herrera to wear down because a team’s best hitter slots third. And the restructuring is unfolding with Herrera in the three hole, while Maikel Franco bats cleanup.
When 2016 began, the prediction here for Franco was a .280 mark with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. But he tried to carry the offense on his back, which led to frustration for himself, the field staff, his teammates, the broadcasters and the fans. Swinging from his heels! So, he must accept his solid ceiling and reach the expectations of his skipper, who recently gave him an earful to ponder during this winter. And when the games begin anew in March, he will hear the clapping and the “Let’s go” shouting of Herrera, but what will he see besides the emphatic pointing? Those bull horns!
Considering the missing link between Franco and Tommy Joseph, Klentak will scour the other 29 MLB rosters for a left-handed bat with 20-homer power, which includes trade talk during many phone conversations with other GMs. Meanwhile, he’ll offer free agents a two-year deal with a club option for 2019 if it’s attainable.
While questions swirl around the hitters in the order above Joseph, the doubt for him entering the next campaign is the right-handed pitching he’ll face. He only saw major league righties 28.3 percent of the time. In other words, those hurlers won’t know his weaknesses in April but will have a slight advantage in the early going nonetheless.
Joseph’s stats including a projection against southpaws:
- LH opposition: 89 AB, .281 Avg., 7 HR, 15 RBI and a .912 OPS.
- LH projection: 226 AB, .281 Avg., 18 HR, 38 RBI and a .912 OPS.
- RH opposition: 226 AB, .248 Avg., 14 HR, 32 RBI and a .774 OPS.
Behind the plate, Cameron Rupp‘s production surprised almost everybody and will lead to many swap-him-now articles this month. The thinking here is he exceeded his market value because he was a backup, not a starter. Yet, he took over the front end of the catching tandem due to his offense and his improving defense.
When a franchise can receive 20 dingers from an eight-hole shortstop, the bottom of their order will not be guaranteed outs. Was his pop an aberration? On the other side of the ball, Freddy Galvis made the routine plays last summer because he practiced throwing to the first baseman’s chest during the offseason. However, the faithful have already penciled in Crawford for his job, before the future star even earns a mid-season promotion.
Can the Philadelphia Phillies make a trade for a left-swinging bat to slot fifth with an organization searching for a backstop? Well, the New York Mets aren’t content with their catchers, and the Colorado Rockies also need a receiver. But if New York doesn’t re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, their only right-handed power hitter will be David Wright because the others–including Jay Bruce–are lefties. Would a package headed by backstop Andrew Knapp be enough for a deal?
If a trading partner wants Rupp for a left-side bat, would the red pinstripes pull the trigger for a 30-year-old outfielder with these numbers: a .324 average, 29 home runs, 82 RBIs and a .933 OPS? Well, Colorado has five left-handed outfielders. Would you make that swap even if it meant a catching tandem of Alfaro and A.J. Ellis? Who’s the Rockie? Charlie Blackmon.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
These numbers do not include any postseason activity.
Hitting:
- Hernandez, 26.5: 155 Gms., 622 PA, a .294 Avg., a .371 OBP, a .393 SLG, a .099 ISO, a .363 BABIP, 6 HR, 39 RBI, a .764 OPS, a 4.4 WAR, 17 SB, 13 CS and a 5.7 Spd.
- Quinn, 23.5: 15 Gms., 69 PA, a .263 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .333 SLG, a .070 ISO, a .395 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .706 OPS, a 0.4 WAR, 5 SB, 1 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
- Herrera, almost 25: 159 Gms., 656 PA, a .286 Avg., a .361 OBP, a .420 SLG, a .134 ISO, a .349 BABIP, 15 HR, 49 RBI, a .781 OPS, a 4.0 WAR, 25 SB, 7 CS and a 6.3 Spd.
- Franco, 24: 152 Gms., 630 PA, a .255 Avg., a .306 OBP, a .427 SLG, a .172 ISO, a .271 BABIP, 25 HR, 88 RBI, a .733 OPS and a 1.4 WAR.
- Bruce, 29.5: 147 Gms., 589 PA, a .250 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .506 SLG, a .256 ISO, a .266 BABIP, 33 HR, 99 RBI, an .815 OPS and a 0.8 WAR with a $13 million club option for 2017.
- Blackmon, 30: 143 Gms., 641 PA, a .324 Avg., a .381 OBP, a .552 SLG, a .228 ISO, a .350 BABIP, 29 HR, 82 RBI, a .933 OPS and a 4.1 WAR with an estimated $9.0 million contract for 2017 (second year of arbitration).
- Joseph, 25: 107 Gms., 347 PA, a .257 Avg., a .308 OBP, a .505 SLG, a .248 ISO, a .267 BABIP, 21 HR, 47 RBI, an .813 OPS and a 0.9 WAR.
- Rupp, 28: 105 Gms., 419 PA, a .252 Avg., a .303 OBP, a .447 SLG, a .195 ISO, a .315 BABIP, 16 HR, 54 RBI, a .750 OPS and a 1.6 WAR.
- Galvis, almost 27: 158 Gms., 624 PA, a .241 Avg., a .274 OBP, a .399 SLG, a .158 ISO, a .280 BABIP, 20 HR, 67 RBI, a .673 OPS and a 2.4 WAR.
Next: Storyline: Rebuilding the Phillies' Rotation
Triple-A Hitting:
- Knapp, almost 25: 107 Gms., 443 PA, a .266 Avg., a .330 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .124 ISO, a .343 BABIP, 8 HR, 46 RBI, a .719 OPS and a 3.6 WAR.