MLB: Declaring WAR on the BBWAA Award Finalists

Sep 19, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) smiles to the bench after hitting a triple and driving in a run during the sixth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

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Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP FINALISTS

Mike Trout, 10.0 WAR (1^st in WAR)
Mookie Betts, 8.7 WAR (2^nd in WAR)
Jose Altuve, 7.2 WAR (4^th in WAR

Notable combined WAR candidate not included among the finalists: Josh Donaldson (7.5 WAR, 3^rd).

I believe Mike Trout is on the top tier and Mookie Betts is by himself on the next tier, then Josh Donaldson and Jose Altuve occupy a third tier together. Beyond that, there is a group of players who had similarly valuable seasons, including Robinson Cano, Manny Machado, and Adrian Beltre.

Last year’s AL MVP, Josh Donaldson, finished third this year in combined WAR, but did not finish among the top three based on the vote of the BBWAA. He was only 0.3 WAR ahead of Jose Altuve, so it’s not an egregious snub. I expect Donaldson will finish fourth when the final results are announced on November 17. Statistically, he had the best on-base percentage of his career but a slightly lower slugging percentage than in 2015. His most notable drop-off in statistics was a 24-RBI decrease from 123 RBI in 2015 to 99 in 2016. He hit better with men on base and with runners in scoring position in 2015 than he did in 2016.

Jose Altuve slipped into the top three above Donaldson, despite finishing 4^th in combined WAR. Donldson was favored by Fangraphs WAR (fWAR). Altuve finished with more Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR). They both had great years, but neither player was as good as Trout or Betts.

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