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2017 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot: The Last Chance For Raines and Smith

By Bobby Mueller

Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Former Montreal Expos player Tim Raines salutes the crowd during a ceremony before the game between teh Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 1, 2016; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Former Montreal Expos player Tim Raines salutes the crowd during a ceremony before the game between teh Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /
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Lee Smith, Relief Pitcher

71 W, 478 SVS, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1022 G, 1289.3 IP

 

BBWAA Hall of Fame Vote

2003—42.3%

2004—36.6%

2005—38.8%

2006—45.0%

2007—39.8%

2008—43.3%

2009—44.5%

2010—47.3%

2011—45.3%

2012—50.6%

2013—47.8%

2014—29.9%

2015—30.2%

2016—34.1%

 

MLB Hall of Fame and Comparable Modern RPs based on Baseball-Reference WAR:

62.5—Dennis Eckersley (HOF)

56.6—Mariano Rivera

50.1—Hoyt Wilhelm (HOF)

41.8—Goose Gossage (HOF)

29.6—Lee Smith

28.4—Trevor Hoffman

28.1—Billy Wagner

27.2—Joe Nathan

26.3—Kent Tekulve

26.1—Rollie Fingers (HOF)

25.4—Dan Quisenberry

25.4—Francisco Rodriguez

24.6—Bruce Sutter (HOF)

 

Les Smith is the transition fossil of baseball closers. He first led the league in saves in 1983 when he pitched 103 1/3 innings in 66 appearances. He led the league in saves again in 1991 when he pitched 73 innings in 67 appearances. That noticeable difference in innings per appearance is one marker of the modern closer.

From 1983 to 1990, Smith pitched 713 1/3 innings in 520 appearances, for an average of 1.37 innings per appearance. This was not unusual for a closer during the 1980s. Most closers averaged more than an inning per appearance. From 1991 on, Smith pitched 370 2/3 innings in 372 appearances, an average of just under one inning per appearance. This is the norm for the modern day closer, an average of right around one inning per appearance. More than any other closer, Lee Smith bridged the gap from a time when closers were regularly used for more than one inning to a time when they rarely are.

Joe Posnanski wrote about Smith as the bridge between a group of closers that included Dan Quisenberry, Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter in the 1980s to the Dennis Eckersley, John Franco, Trevor Hoffman, and Mariano Rivera group of the 1990s. He makes a good argument that Smith became the first modern-day closer in 1991, thanks to Cardinals’ manager Joe Torre.

But does that make Lee Smith a Hall of Famer? Based on recent Hall of Fame ballots, it doesn’t look like it. Smith debuted with 42.3% of the vote, which is more than halfway to the 75% threshold needed for induction. He held steady in the 35% to 45% range for nine years before topping out at 50.6% in his 10th year on the ballot. He dropped slightly in his 11th year, then tumbled all the way down to 29.9% in his 12th year on the ballot. He had 34.1% last year. Given these vote totals, it’s extremely unlikely Smith will make it this year, on his final ballot.

Relief pitchers are a difficult position to assess when it comes to the Hall of Fame because the role has changed so much over time. One hundred years ago, relievers were an afterthought. Starters were expected to pitch the entire game and relievers were failed starters who were generally only brought in when the game was out of hand. Even after the save statistic was invented in 1969, it took another 20-plus years for teams to settle in on the usage pattern of the modern day closer.

With so much change in the role over time, the relievers that are currently in the Hall of Fame are an eclectic bunch. These Hall of Fame relievers are Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Dennis Eckersley. Wilhelm started 52 games in his career. Fingers and Gossage each started 37. Eckersley was a starting pitcher for many years before becoming a closer in his 30’s. He started 361 games in his career. Of the five closers currently in the Hall of Fame, only Bruce Sutter never started a game. Perhaps not coincidentally, Sutter has the lowest Baseball-Reference WAR among this group of pitchers.

As you can see from the list above, Lee Smith falls well short of the WAR totals of Eckersley, Wilhelm, and Gossage (and Mariano Rivera, who will be eligible in 2019), but above Fingers and Sutter. He’s even slightly above Trevor Hoffman, who debuted with 67.3% of the vote last year. Then again, Smith is also just slightly above Billy Wagner, who received only 10.5% of the vote last year, despite being so close in value to Hoffman.

More than anything, I believe this shows that voters don’t yet know what to do with relievers. If you look just at run prevention, there shouldn’t have been such a big difference between Wagner and Hoffman in the voting last year. The save statistics makes it look like Hoffman is much more deserving than Wagner, but when it comes to run prevention Wagner was the better pitcher. Hoffman is likely to get into the Hall of Fame very soon, while Wagner could easily fall off the ballot long before his ten years are up.

Lee Smith gets his final chance to enter the Hall of Fame through the BBWAA this year. He’s at the top of a group that includes a couple Hall of Fame relievers, but was not demonstrably better than Bill Wagner, Joe Nathan, Kent Tekulve, or Dan Quisenberry, none of whom will make the Hall. Smith can be proud of his 18 years in the big leagues, but he won’t be making the Hall of Fame.

 

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