MLB Hall of Fame: Breaking Down the Ballot
It is that wonderful time of year when the MLB Hall of Fame ballot is announced. But which players listed have a chance at immortality this time through?
We are almost at that time when a new class of immortals will be inducted into the MLB Hall of Fame. This time, 34 players will have their careers measured and scrutinized, with the same question in mind – does this player deserve to be enshrined in the hallowed halls of the Hall of Fame?
For some players, just making the ballot is a validation of their career. They may earn a vote or two, but induction just is not going to happen. That does not mean that they were not very good players; but rather an indication as to the level required to achieve immortality.
Other players will remain on the ballot for years, not dropping off, but unable to receive enough votes to be enshrined by the writers. These former stars, and fan favorites, fell just short of the statistical milestones needed to reach Cooperstown. Or, in some cases, the taint of PED use overshadows their accomplishments, keeping them on the outside looking in.
Then, there are those rare few players who will be inducted into the MLB Hall of Fame. These players, the ones that we will tell our grandchildren about, played the game at a level that transcended the decades of history surrounding Major League Baseball. The true greats; these players whose names will become legendary over time, are the ones who will reach that 75% mark, becoming immortals.
In a year where there is not that sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer, voting should be quite interesting. Let us take a look at each of the players on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot, and see who will get inducted.
Jeff Bagwell (1991-2005)
The fact that Jeff Bagwell is not already in the MLB Hall of Fame is a travesty.
In the history of the Major Leagues, Bagwell is the only player with six consecutive seasons of 30 homers, 100 runs scored, 100 RBI, and 100 walks. He is the only first baseman to hit over 400 home runs and steal over 200 bases. A Rookie of the Year in 1991, and the MVP in 1994, Bagwell also won a Gold Glove award, showing that he was more than a one dimensional hitter.
Over the course of his 15 year career, all with the Houston Astros, Bagwell shined. A career .297/.408/.540 hitter, Bagwell had 449 home runs and 1529 RBI. One of the rare first basemen that could steal a base, he had two seasons with over 30 steals, and finished his career with 202 stolen bases. With the exception of one season, he was also excellent defensively, saving the Astros 31 runs.
So, why isn’t Bagwell in the Hall? Probably because of Murray Chass. Without a shred of evidence, he has accused Bagwell of PED usage, which has hindered his chances at induction. However, Bagwell was not among the 104 players that tested positive for PEDs in 2003, and was not named in the Mitchell Report. These allegations have been completely unfounded.
Having earned 71.6% of the vote last year, Jeff Bagwell has a good chance at being inducted into the Hall of Fame. And quite frankly, it’s about time.
Casey Blake (1999-2011)
Every so often, there are players on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot that make me wonder how they got there. Casey Blake was that player this season.
That is not to say that he had a subpar career. Indeed, he was a solid player, ending up with a 13 year career despite not having a true shot at the Majors until he was signed by the Cleveland Indians prior to the 2003 season. Over the next eight seasons, he turned into a solid third baseman/utility player, routinely hitting double digit home runs and 20 or more doubles.
In his career, spent primarily with the Indians and the Dodgers, Blake was a good, but not spectacular, player. He had a career .264/.336/.442 batting line, hitting 167 home runs and 264 doubles. Had he been given more of a chance before he turned 29 years old, Blake’s numbers may have been much better.
However, he was much more of a solid player than a special talent. He never made an All Star Game, or received an MVP vote. His defense at third was solid, but not Gold Glove caliber. Blake had a good, but relatively non-descript, career.
If Casey Blake gets a vote for the Hall of Fame, that would be a moderate upset. A solid player, he simply does not have a chance at being enshrined.
Barry Bonds (1986-2007)
If there is a hot button candidate for the Hall of Fame, Barry Bonds would be on the short list.
There is no questioning his greatness. A true five tool player, Bonds needs several display cases to hold the awards he earned. A 14 time All Star, he won seven MVP awards, 12 Silver Slugger awards, and eight Gold Gloves. He holds the single season home run record (73) and has the career mark with 762 homers. A feared slugger, he holds the record for the most intentional walks, and for the most walks in total. In his 2004 campaign, he set a record with an insane .609 on base percentage and a 1.422 OPS.
His numbers over the course of his career are beyond what one could accomplish in a video game. A .298/.444/.607 hitter over his 22 year career, Bonds hit 762 homers, stole 514 bases, and finished just shy of 3000 hits. One of eight players to hit 300 homers and steal 300 bases, he is the only member of the 400/400 and 500/500 clubs, a distinction that may not change for quite some time.
The problem that Bonds faces stem entirely from PED usage. While he never tested positive for steroids, his involvement with BALCO, and subsequent perjury trial, have tainted his candidacy. There is no question that his numbers make him one of the all time greats, but that PED cloud that hangs over his head leaves him on the outside looking in.
Eventually, Barry Bonds should find himself in Cooperstown. However, with only 44.3% of the vote last year, that call is unlikely to come in 2017.
Pat Burrell (2000-2011)
The former number one overall pick of the 1999 MLB Amateur Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies, Pat Burrell was one of the ultimate streak hitters. When he was on, he hit for tremendous power. However, when he was off, he was susceptible to breaking pitches and prone to striking out.
A true power hitter, Burrell hit 30 or more homers on four occasions. Even though he was prone to striking out, he still drew his fair share of walks, walking over 100 times twice, and just missing that mark in two other years. Twice, Burrell finished in the top three in RBI, doing so in 2002 and 2005. He was also a solid outfielder, leading National League left fielders in assists twice.
His power capabilities and ability to draw a walk led to a solid career. Overall, Burrell produced a .253/.361/.472 batting line, hitting 292 home runs and driving in 976 runs. He walked 932 times, but also struck out 1564 times in 5503 at bats. If he made contact, the ball went a long way, but Burrell just did not make contact consistently enough.
While Burrell was a solid player, and played a key part in the Phillies and San Francisco Giants World Series winning teams, he was just that – a solid player. He never led the league in any offensive category, and his production was overshadowed by the tail end of the PED era. Perhaps it is unfair to Burrell, given the time that he played, but his numbers are simply not enough for enshrinement.
Pat Burrell may get a few votes, considering what he meant to the Phillies and the Giants. However, his career, as good as it was, is not Hall of Fame caliber.
Orlando Cabrera (1997-2011)
A part of the incomprehensible trade that sent Nomar Garciaparra from the Boston Red Sox, Cabrera’s steady glove and ability with the bat helped end the Curse of the Bambino.
While he will never need to purchase a beer in the city of Boston again, Cabrera was far more than that one moment. A player with more gap power than an ability to hit home runs, Cabrera had nine seasons with 30 or more doubles. He also possessed surprising speed, stealing 20 or more bases five times. Defensively, he was steady with the glove, and won two Gold Glove awards for his prowess at short.
Throughout his career, Cabrera was often overlooked. While he never made the All Star Game, his production was such where he could have. In fact, Cabrera’s 459 doubles are the most of any player to not make an All Star Game since it began in 1933. Overall, he produced a solid .272/.317/.390 batting line, with 2055 hits and 216 steals. He was, all in all, a steady, solid hitter.
Unfortunately, the reasons why Cabrera did not make an All Star Game will lead to his dropping off the ballot after this time through. He was a solid player, and one who did the little things, but that does not show up in the box score. Cabrera was a veteran leader, respected throughout the game, and one who could hold a clubhouse together. But there are not any statistics to measure those intangibles.
Orlando Cabrera had a fine career, and he should get a vote or two for the Hall. However, while he would make a Hall of Intangibles, his career was not at a Hall of Fame level.
Mike Cameron (1995-2011)
Mike Cameron had the ability to hit for power and excellent speed. Unfortunately, his inability to make consistent contact limited his overall statistics.
That does not detract from the player that Cameron was. In his prime, he was one of the more exciting players in the game, capable of crushing a home run, stealing bases, and making a highlight reel catch in the outfield. He had five seasons where he hit 20 homers and stole 20 bases, highlighting his potential.
Just as he missed out on the 30-30 club on a couple of occasions, Cameron is just on the outside of being the ninth member of the 300 home run and 300 stolen base club. He had a .249/.338/.444 batting line, hitting 278 home runs and stealing 297 bases. Unfortunately, his high strikeout rate, at 24.1% over his 17 year career, kept him from reaching those milestones.
Even had he become a member of the 300-300 club, Cameron would still likely be left out of Cooperstown. He had a solid career, and won three Gold Glove awards while making an All Star Game, but he also failed two drug tests. His second failed test, for a stimulant, led to a 25 game suspension. As players with stronger resumes have been kept out for drug use, Cameron’s failed test puts any doubt to rest.
Mike Cameron had a good career, but never fully reached his potential. Injuries, a high strikeout rate, and a failed drug test will all keep him from the MLB Hall of Fame.
Roger Clemens (1984-2007)
Just as Barry Bonds has the numbers to be a first ballot Hall of Fame player as a hitter, Roger Clemens has those numbers as a pitcher. And just like Bonds, PED allegations have kept him out of the MLB Hall of Fame.
Clemens’ career had been absolutely stellar. Arguably the greatest pitcher in the history of the game, let alone his generation, Clemens had quite the resume. He made 11 All Star Games, and won seven Cy Young awards. One of the few pitchers to win the MVP in the modern era, Clemens took home that award in 1986. Twice, he won the pitching Triple Crown, doing so in 1997 and 1998 with the Toronto Blue Jays.
That dominance led to an impressive statistical career. Clemens was 354-184 over his 24 years, posting a 3.12 ERA and a 1.173 WHiP. One of four pitchers with over 4000 strikeouts, Clemens ranks third all time, sending 4672 batters down by the K. Ninth all time in wins, third all time with 139.4 WAR as a pitcher, seventh in games started and 16th in innings, Clemens was truly a pitcher whose ability will withstand the test of time.
However, there are those PED concerns. Infamously allowed to depart from the Boston Red Sox after 1996, when Dan Duquette felt that Clemens was done, he resurrected his career. Both pitching Triple Crowns, and four of his Cy Young awards, came from that point on. He became one of the more dominant pitchers in the game, but his eventual perjury trial, and being named in the Mitchell Report, cast a shadow over his career.
Last season, Roger Clemens received 45.2% of the vote for the MLB Hall of Fame. Even though his resume says that he is a first ballot player, his alleged PED usage may keep him out for quite some time.
J.D. Drew (1998-2011)
An incredible talent, J.D. Drew gave the perception that he was never playing as hard as he could. Rightly or wrongly, that belief has led many to think his career was a disappointment.
The former second overall pick by the Phillies, Drew infamously spurned their contract offers to play independent ball, reentering the draft the following year. He was drafted fifth overall by the Cardinals, who he signed with, earning the hatred of Philadelphia fans for the rest of his career. Even then, injuries and his stoic demeanor led to his being unable to reach his potential, as comparisons to Mickey Mantle fell by the wayside.
Drew was a very good player, but never became the superstar he was expected to be. He produced a .278/.384/.489 batting line, with 242 homers and 273 doubles. He only made one All Star team, and received votes for the MVP award once. That year, he did finish sixth, but did not make the All Star Game.
In the end, Drew’s career comes down to the question of “what if?” What if he had been healthy, or what if he tried harder to play through the pain? What if he signed with the Phillies? In the end, he had a good career, and may even receive enough votes to remain on the ballot beyond this year, but he did not have the the type of career that warrants induction into the Hall of Fame.
When he was drafted, it was expected that J.D. Drew would find himself in the Hall of Fame one day. However, that day is not going to come, unless he purchases a ticket.
Carlos Guillen (1998-2011)
When the Seattle Mariners traded Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros, Carlos Guillen was one of the players that came back in return. While he was a decent player for the Mariners, it was when he left Seattle that he truly blossomed.
After putting up below replacement level numbers with the Mariners, Guillen turned into a star with Detroit. In his first season with the Tigers, he put together a career best .318/.379/.542 batting line, hitting 20 home runs and 37 doubles. He made his first All Star Game, and even earned votes for the 2004 MVP.
Guillen would go on to make three All Star teams with the Tigers, and finished as high as tenth in the 2006 MVP vote. Overall in his 14 year career, Guillen produced a .285/.355/.443 batting line, hitting 124 home runs and 266 doubles. The vast majority of that production came with his eight seasons in Detroit, where he blossomed into a star.
Unfortunately, his six years in Seattle are also included in his overall production. Had he been a Tiger for his entire career, and produced at that level, Guillen could have had a case for the Hall of Fame. Instead, he may receive a vote or two, but his candidacy has the makings being one and done on the ballot.
Carlos Guillen was a star for the Detroit Tigers. He just did not spend nearly enough time there to make up for his underwhelming start to his career.
Vladimir Guerrero (1996-2011)
Vladimir Guerrero never met a pitch he didn’t like, notoriously swinging at anything near the plate. However, he was one of the greatest ‘bad ball’ hitters that the game has seen, giving him an interesting resume.
One of the last remaining Expos players to appear on the ballot, Guerrero was one of the most exciting players in the game during his prime. Possessing an incredible arm, tremendous power, and excellent speed, he was a true five tool player in his early days. One simply did not run on Guerrero in right, as that was just an invitation to be embarrassed on the basepaths. He also just missed joining the 40-40 club, hitting 39 homers and stealing 40 bases in 2002.
After showing up to a tryout in street clothes because he family could not afford baseball equipment, Guerrero developed into a star. He made nine All Star Games, was named the 2004 MVP, and won eight Silver Slugger awards. Overall, he posted a .318/.379/.553 batting line, hitting 449 homers and stealing 181 bases. Even with his free swinging ways, Guerrero was an excellent contact hitter, striking out in just 10.9% of his plate appearances.
Of all the players on the ballot, Guerrero’s candidacy is the most interesting. He appears to be someone who, if he does not get in on the first ballot, would be close. However, who knows if someone, somewhere (Murray Chass or another one of those idiots) suspects that he was a PED user and decides not to vote for him due to their own personal self importance.
Vladimir Guerrero has the resume of a first ballot MLB Hall of Fame member. However, the same thought could have been said about others who, even without a failed drug test or any PED allegations. I think he gets in, but it may not be this year.
Trevor Hoffman (1993-2010)
Last year, Trevor Hoffman received 67.3% of the vote for the MLB Hall of Fame. This year, he just might get that remaining 7.7% needed for induction.
The first closer in MLB history to reach the 600 save plateau, Hoffman took an interesting path to the Majors. He was initially an infielder in the Reds system, and was converted to the mound in 1991. That transition worked wonders, as he became one of the best closers in the game after a trade to the Padres.
A seven time All Star, and a two time winner of the Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year award, Hoffman used his devastating changeup to great effect. While he never won a Cy Young award, he finished second twice, an excellent finish for a reliever. Hoffman finished his career with 601 saves, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 1.058 WHiP. In 1089.1 innings, Hoffman struck out 1133 batters, while issuing just 307 walks.
If he becomes inducted, Hoffman would also be the first true modern closer in the Hall. Yes, Bruce Sutter was the first pitcher to never start a game to be inducted, but he pitched at a time when multi-inning saves were common. Dennis Eckersley was the first reliever to get one inning saves, but he also had quite a career as a starter. Hoffman, meanwhile, was used for just one inning – the ninth.
Considering how close he came last year, Trevor Hoffman stands an excellent chance of being enshrined in the MLB Hall of Fame this year. It may be close, but he seems destined to finish over the 75% cutoff line.
Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Arguably the greatest offensive second baseman in MLB history, Jeff Kent has the statistical profile of a Hall of Famer. However, with Kent, the argument goes beyond the numbers.
A good player early in his career, Kent’s production took off with the San Francisco Giants. Hitting in the same lineup as Barry Bonds, he blossomed into a star. Kent made five All Star Games, won four Silver Slugger awards, and was named the 2000 National League MVP. A power hitter at second, he had 12 seasons with 20 or more home runs.
His resume is without peer at second. In fact, of the ten most similar players for his career, Ryne Sandberg is the only second baseman on the list. Kent posted a .290/.356/.500 batting line, hitting 377 home runs and driving in 1518 runs. Those numbers were superstar caliber.
And yet, Kent has been stuck in the mid teens in voting percentage. Perhaps his personality is working against him, as he was considered surly and unapproachable. His well publicized incident when he broke his arm on his motorcycle, after claiming it occurred when he was washing his truck, could also be a factor.
Jeff Kent should be in the MLB Hall of Fame, but he has not come close to getting the support he needs. In a way, his candidacy is similar to that of the seventh most similar player over his career – Jim Rice. Just as Rice had to wait year after year to finally make the Hall, Kent may suffer the same fate.
Derrek Lee (1997-2011)
An excellent defensive first baseman, Derrek Lee was also a solid hitter who had some truly spectacular years.
A good hitter with solid power, Lee broke out in 2005. That year, he led the National League with a .335 batting average, .662 slugging percentage, 50 doubles, and 199 hits. He made his first All Star Game, and finished third in the MVP vote. All told, Lee made two All Star Games, won a Silver Slugger award, and earned three Gold Glove awards.
Lee was a generally consistent hitter, putting up solid power numbers. In his 15 seasons, Lee posted a .281/.365/.495 batting line, hitting 331 homers and 432 doubles. Aside from that one standout year, Lee was far more of a steady player than anyone who would be considered a statistical marvel.
Even though Lee put together a better career than one may have thought, it is still not enough to be inducted into the MLB Hall of Fame. Considering the players of his era, Lee was never considered one of the best, earning MVP votes only four times. However, his overall numbers, and steady production, could keep him on the ballot for a few years.
Derrek Lee may not end up in the Hall, but he should not be off the ballot after the first year either. A steady player, he was better than we may have realized.
Edgar Martinez (1987-2004)
One of the greatest pure hitters of his time, Edgar Martinez has a lack of support because he was a designated hitter. However, he was far more than that.
It took until Martinez was 27 years old before he got his first real chance in the Majors, and when he did, he seized the opportunity. A doubles hitter with an incredible ability to make contact, Martinez won two batting titles and led the league in on base percentage three times. He made seven All Star Games, and won five Silver Slugger awards. It helped that Ken Griffey Jr and Alex Rodriguez were in the lineup, but Martinez was just as important to the Mariners as they were.
A look at his numbers do not really do Martinez justice. While his .312/.418/.515 batting line is impressive, the rest of his numbers would seemingly fall short of induction. Martinez finished his career with 2247 hits, 309 homers, and 514 doubles; good totals, but nothing that would say that Cooperstown should be in his future.
However, Martinez’ candidacy is a matter of the complete package. Not only was he not a full time player until age 27, but he also missed most of his age 30 and 31 seasons due to injury. Those two years, taken out of his peak, along with his extended time in the minors, depressed his totals. Even then, his resume is impressive.
In his eighth year on the ballot this year, Edgar Martinez had his highest vote total last year, appearing on 43.4% of the ballots. While a slight increase should be expected, it will not be enough to put him in this year. And with just two years to after after 2017, one has to wonder if Martinez will be inducted at all, even though some would say that he is quite deserving.
Fred McGriff (1986-2004)
Perhaps more than anyone on the ballot, Fred McGriff was a victim of the PED era.
A steady player who would routinely hit 30 to 40 home runs, McGriff had ten seasons of 30+ homers. He led the league twice, even though his career best, 37 homers, would only rank fourth in the league in 1993. He would never reach the 40 homer mark, and with the power explosion of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, his numbers are not considered to be as impressive as they are.
In a remarkably consistent career, McGriff produced a .284/.377/.509 batting line, hitting 493 home runs while driving in 1550 runs. As his career coincided with the height of the PED era, McGriff was only a five time All Star, overlooked by those cartoonish sluggers of his time. He only finished in the top five of the MVP vote once, and may be considered more of a compiler than a real star.
Yet, had McGriff gotten seven more home runs to reach the 500 homer plateau, his career may be looked at under a different light. As it is, with the backlash that PED users have faced on the ballot, McGriff’s lack of support is a bit surprising. With his highest percentage of Hall of Fame votes coming in 2012, and with only 20.9% of the vote last year, his candidacy is stuck in neutral.
Fred McGriff has been on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot for eight years now. At this point, if he is to be inducted, it will have to come through the Veteran’s Committee.
Melvin Mora (1999-2011)
Melvin Mora is better known for his children than for what he did on the diamond. In 2001, when Mora was establishing himself as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, his wife gave birth to quintuplets, capturing the attention of the baseball world.
The fact that Mora was even a part of the Orioles at the time was a bit of a surprise. He only had 39 plate appearances in 66 games as a 27 year old, notching five hits. Then, he entered Game Two of the NLCS for an injured Rickey Henderson, and hit a home run. That led to increased playing time the following season, and served as a springboard to his career.
Mora went from a utility player to establishing himself as Baltimore’s third baseman, rapidly becoming a fan favorite. He produced a .277/.350/.431 batting line, hitting 171 homers and 283 doubles. A two time All Star, Mora won a Silver Slugger in 2004 when he set career highs in virtually every offensive category.
Those accomplishments, however, are not enough to garner induction into the Hall of Fame. Mora only led the league in one category, when he had a .419 on base percentage in 2004. He would occasionally appear on the leaderboards, but he was not a star in any sense of the term. He was a good player, and one that deserved his selections to the All Star Game, but he was not a Hall of Fame caliber talent.
Another player who might top out with a vote or two, Melvin Mora is destined to be one and done on the 2017 MLB Hall of Fame ballot.
Mike Mussina (1991-2008)
A remarkably consistent pitcher, Mike Musinna only won 20 games once in his career. He accomplished this feat in his final season, leaving one to wonder if he walked away early, even if he was 39 years old at the time.
He still had quite the remarkable career. Mussina only had two losing seasons in his 18 years in the Majors, and won 11 or more games for 17 consecutive seasons. A five time All Star, Mussina finished second in the Cy Young vote in 1999, beaten out by Pedro Martinez’ otherworldly performance. An excellent defensive player, Mussina also won seven Gold Glove awards.
Overall in his career, split almost equally between the Orioles and the Yankees, Mussina posted a 270-153 record with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.192 WHiP. In 3562.2 innings, Mussina struck out 2813 batters, while issuing only 785 walks. A workhorse throughout his 18 years, Mussina topped the 200 inning mark 11 times.
A remarkably solid pitcher, Mussina is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. His win total puts him at a level where enshrinement is in the discussion, but his ERA is a bit high. However, given the inflated offensive period in which he pitched in, it was still good enough for a 123 ERA+. Understandably, he has received steady support throughout the years, topping out at 43.0% of the vote last year.
If Mike Mussina is to make the MLB Hall of Fame, he needs to take another step forward this year. Getting over the 50% mark could bode well, as he would have six more years to get to that 75% mark. If he does not get there, he could end up as another Jack Morris, on the periphery of the discussion, but not quite able to generate the support needed to get in.
Magglio Ordonez (1997-2011)
When the Detroit Tigers were looking to retool their roster following their nadir at the start of the 2000’s, one of the players they brought in was Magglio Ordonez.
A solid player when healthy, Ordonez battled injuries throughout his career. However, in those years that he was healthy, Ordonez was a good power hitter who made excellent contact. He won the batting title in 2007 with a .363 batting average, and topped the American League with 54 doubles. A six time All Star, and a three time Silver Slugger, Ordonez was one of the better hitters in the game.
Even though his numbers were hampered by injury, he put together a solid career. Ordonez posted a .309/.369/.502 batting line, hitting 294 home runs and 426 doubles. He finished with 2156 hits, driving in 1236 runs. Although he lost the speed he had earlier in his career, Ordonez had three seasons where he stole double digit bases, including a high of 25 steals in 2001.
Ordonez had a very good career, and had he remained healthy, may have had a case for the Hall of Fame. Although he won a batting title after his injury plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, he did not hit for the same power and just was not the same player. He was a very good player, but not one that will get the call to Cooperstown.
Magglio Ordonez should be more than a one and done player on the ballot. However, he seems like someone who may remain in the low to mid teens in regards to his percentages.
Jorge Posada (1995-2011)
Of all the players on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot this year, Jorge Posada may be the most interesting.
He certainly received quite a few accolades during his playing career. He made five All Star Games, and won the Silver Slugger award five times. He only received MVP votes twice, but he finished in the top six both times. However, Posada was also the starting catcher on four World Series winning ballclubs, which also helps his resume.
In regards to the overall numbers, Posada was solid, but not spectacular. He hit at a .273/.374/.474 rate, hitting 275 home runs and 379 doubles. Those numbers were solid, and were quite good for a catcher, but were still not at a truly elite level. Players like Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and Victor Martinez were putting together otherworldly numbers behind the plate. While Posada’s contributions with the bat were sufficient for the Yankees, they were not that caliber.
That is what makes Posada’s Hall of Fame case interesting. A look at the raw numbers, and the numbers alone, may not be enough to put him in. Yet, what he meant to the team in terms of leadership, and his stature as a World Series winner with the New York Yankees may tip the scales in his favor. It just may take some time.
Jorge Posada may not be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He may not even be a second or a fifth ballot inductee. But he seems destined to be enshrined eventually, a player whose contributions were beyond his raw statistics.
Tim Raines (1979-1999, 2001-2002)
Tim Raines may well have been the second greatest leadoff hitter in MLB history. Unfortunately, playing at the same time as the greatest, Rickey Henderson, and having his peak with the Montreal Expos, have hurt him on the MLB Hall of Fame ballot.
That is quite unfortunate, because Raines had a great career that is only now starting to get the recognition it deserves. He certainly had an impressive resume, making seven consecutive All Star Games while with the Expos, and being named the 1987 All Star Game MVP. He led the National League in stolen bases four times, and finished in the top ten of the MVP vote three times.
While nagging injuries took a toll on the final half of his career, Raines still had an excellent run. He produced a .294/.385/.425 batting line, with 2605 hits and 808 stolen bases. Raines ranks fifth all time in steals, and is 13th all time with an 84.70 success rate. He also did a great job of getting home once he reached base, scoring 1571 runs in his career.
Raines candidacy has become a bit of a cause celebre over the past few years. After barely reaching 30% of the vote in his first three years on the ballot, his support has risen to 69.8% last year. However, this is Raines final season on the ballot, as the rules have changed to allow only ten years for voting purposes. Will he be able to get that final 5.2% needed to be inducted?
Chances are, this is the year that Tim Raines gets the phone call to welcome him to the MLB Hall of Fame. It will certainly be well deserved, and is well overdue.
Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
If not for PED usage, Manny Ramirez would be in the Hall of Fame. Instead, there are questions as to whether or not he will remain on the ballot beyond this year.
There is no questioning his greatness. Ramirez was a 12 time All Star, and a nine time Silver Slugger winner. He hit 30 or more home runs 11 times, and even won a batting title in 2002. Despite never winning an MVP award, Ramirez finished in the top ten in the balloting eight times.
One of the best pure hitters that the game had ever seen, Ramirez was worth the price of admission. Wildly entertaining at the plate or in the field, one never knew exactly what he would do. However, Ramirez could hit, producing a .312/.411/.585 batting line with 555 home runs and drove in 1831 runs. His numbers would indicate that he is a first ballot Hall of Famer.
However, there was more to Manny being Manny than the numbers. He failed two PED tests, the second of which led to his brief retirement in 2011. He also shoved a beloved clubhouse attendant while with the Red Sox, and became such a poisonous figure in the locker room that Boston sent him away to the Dodgers as part of a three team trade.
Several players with excellent resumes, such as Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens, who did not fail a PED test, have been on the outside looking in. Rafael Palmeiro, who had 3000 hits and 500 home runs, fell off the ballot after his fourth year due to his PED suspension. Will Ramirez suffer the same fate?
We will find out after the votes are tabulated. Nonetheless, Manny Ramirez is the most interesting player on the ballot just to see what his support looks like.
Edgar Renteria (1996-2011)
If one is a fan of the Miami Marlins, Edgar Renteria will always have a place in your heart. His base hit off Charles Nagy in the bottom of the 11th inning in the 1997 World Series gave the franchise their first championship.
Renteria had more than that one moment. A shortstop with a great blend of speed, power, and a stellar glove, he was one of the best at his position during his era. He made five All Star teams, won three Silver Slugger awards, and was a two time Gold Glove winner. A lifetime .333/.391/.508 hitter in the World Series, Renteria was also named the MVP of the Giants 2010 championship squad.
During his 16 year career, Renteria’s teams typically made the postseason. His production was a large part of that success, as he posted a .286/.343/.398 batting line, hitting 140 homers, 436 doubles, and stealing 294 bases. A solid defensive shortstop throughout much of his career, his reputation took a major hit during his season with the Red Sox, when he became known as Rent-A-Wreck for his inability to handle the pressure in the city. However, aside from that awful season, he was still handy with the glove.
Despite his postseason success, Renteria was a relatively overlooked player. Even though he played in the National League, he was still overshadowed by the great American League shortstops of the era. Players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra all dramatically outperformed Renteria, who was far more of a steady hitter than a star.
Will that steady production keep him on the ballot beyond this year? It may, but it would not be a surprise if Edgar Renteria was off the ballot after his first appearance.
Arthur Rhodes (1991-2011)
Here’s a fun bit of baseball trivia: Who is the all time holds leader in MLB history? The answer would be Arthur Rhodes.
A hard throwing lefty, Rhodes struggled as a starter, posting a 5.79 ERA and a 1.519 WHiP in his first six seasons, used mainly in the rotation. However, he was put in the bullpen after the 1996 season, where he flourished. Although he failed as a closer, Rhodes was one of the premier setup men in baseball for over a decade, continuing his strong performance into his 40s. In fact, he was one of five players to be named to their first All Star Game after turning 40 years old.
His numbers certainly back up the thought that he was one of the greatest set up men in the history of the game. He posted a 4.08 ERA and a 1.304 WHiP overall, but those numbers were skewed by his disastrous start to his career. As a reliever, he had a 3.41 ERA and a 1.205 WHiP, striking out 879 batters in 843.2 innings. And, let us not forget his 254 career holds.
However, set up men and middle relievers are just starting to be recognized in the All Star Game. Closers have an uphill battle to fight in regards to making the MLB Hall of Fame, and a designated hitter has never been enshrined. A setup man would seemingly not have a chance, even if the pitcher in question is one of the best to man the eighth inning.
Arthur Rhodes had a nice career, and is the gold standard for set up man longevity. However, the best he could hope for may be a vote or two for the Hall of Fame.
Ivan Rodriguez (1991-2011)
It is truly rare for a catcher to not only be an excellent offensive presence, but to be one of the best defensive catchers in the history of the game. Ivan Rodriguez was exactly that during his 21 year career.
The Texas Rangers primary catcher as a 19 year old, he quickly announced his presence at the Major League level. Rodriguez made the All Star Game and won a Gold Glove the following year, beginning a standard of excellence that was second to none. By the time his career was over, he was named to 14 All Star teams, won 13 Gold Gloves, and was the 1999 American League MVP.
Rodriguez was also remarkable for his durability. He set the record for the most games as a catcher, with 2427 games behind the plate. During his storied career, Rodriguez produced a .296/.334/.464 batting line, hitting 311 homers and 572 doubles. The all time hits leader as a catcher, he also had a bit of speed, stealing 127 bases.
With his resume, Rodriguez would seemingly be a first ballot Hall of Famer. However, the spectre of PED usage has reared its head in regards to his candidacy. Jose Canseco, who has an interesting track record with PED usage claims, said that Rodriguez was a PED user. That accusation, even without evidence, will remain in the minds of the voters.
Ivan Rodriguez should be in the MLB Hall of Fame. But will those PED accusations keep him from immortality, at least temporarily? We will know soon.
Freddy Sanchez (2002-2011)
In order to be eligible for the MLB Hall of Fame, a player needs to have at least ten years in the league. Freddy Sanchez hit that mark exactly.
That fact that Sanchez even made the Majors was extraordinary. He had health problems as a child, and was never expected to walk. Instead, he became a solid baseball player, and even led the National League with a .344 batting average and 53 doubles in 2006. Unfortunately, a series of injuries, including a severe back injury that needed surgery, cut his career short.
During his decade in the Majors, Sanchez certainly made his mark. He produced a solid .297/.335/.413 batting line, hitting 215 doubles. He was not much of a power hitter, with only 48 career home runs, but he was quite adept at making contact. In 3402 career at bats, he struck out only 420 times.
A three time All Star, it is possible that Sanchez would have had a solid career, and may have even gotten votes for the Hall of Fame, if he remained healthy. However, with his short career, and relatively underwhelming numbers in comparison to others on the ballot, he may be hard pressed to even receive a single vote.
Freddy Sanchez overcame a great deal of adversity to be a professional baseball player, and his career is a testament to his perseverance. However, as nice of a story as his career was, that is not enough for a spot in Cooperstown.
Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
It took almost a decade for Curt Schilling to get his career on track, but when he did, he certainly made up for lost time.
After bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen for a few years, and dealing with injuries, Schilling blossomed into a star. He became one of the more dominant pitchers in the game, making six All Star Games and finishing second in the Cy Young vote three times. A workhorse, as well as an ace, Schilling led the league in wins and WhiP twice, while pitching over 250 innings four times.
The 2001 World Series co-MVP, he cemented his legacy during the 2004 postseason. Pitching with a torn tendon sheath in his ankle, and his bloody sock became iconic. That performance added another layer to a solid career, one that saw Schilling go 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.137 WHiP.
Outspoken during his playing career, particularly when it came to PED usage, Schilling has been a magnet for controversy since. His gaming company, 38 Studios, went bankrupt, costing Rhode Island taxpayers over $28 Million. He was suspended by ESPN for various insensitive comments on social media. Schilling ranted against evolution, and has proclaimed his intention of running for Senate.
More of an outspoken version of Jack Morris, Curt Schilling has had solid support for the MLB Hall of Fame, reaching 52.3% last year. He may get even closer this time, and could eventually find himself in the Hall. If and when that happens, his acceptance speech is likely to be memorable.
Gary Sheffield (1988-2005)
There was a time when hitting 500 homers meant enshrinement in the MLB Hall of Fame. However, as Gary Sheffield can attest, that is not the case any longer.
When his head was in the game, few players could make his ability and talent. The 1988 Minor League Player of the Year, Sheffield made nine All Star Games, and was a five time Silver Slugger. He hit 20 or more homer 14 times, and even won a batting title in 1992. He finished in the top three of the MVP balloting three times, and was the runner up in 2004.
One of the better sluggers in the game when healthy and motivated, Sheffield was the 25th player in MLB history to hit 500 homers. Overall in his career, he posted a .292/.393/.514 batting line, hitting 509 homers and notching 2689 hits. He ranks 26th all time in homers, 28th with 1676 RBI, and 21st with 1475 walks. Sheffield also had excellent speed in his younger days, and finished with 253 career steals.
However, as impressive as Sheffield’s accomplishments were, they have not resonated in the minds of the voters. Encompassed in the same cloud of PED suspicion as most sluggers of his era, Sheffield also had a few character issues. He admitted to making errors to force his way out of Milwaukee, and one has to wonder how hard he would play on any given day. As such, despite his accomplishments and how eight of his ten most similar players are in the Hall of Fame, Sheffield has not received more than 11.7% of the vote.
While that number should increase a bit this year, he may be lucky to reach 20% of the vote. Gary Sheffield will be on the ballot for quite some time.
Lee Smith (1980-1997)
The final holdover from when players had 15 years on the ballot, it is now or never for Lee Smith to be inducted by the BBWAA.
At a time when closers were extremely volatile in nature, and would be swapped in and out frequently, Smith was remarkable for his consistency. He saved 30 or more games ten times, and led the league in saves on four occasions. Smith was a seven time All Star, and won three Rolaids Reliever of the Year awards, proving to be one of the best closers in the game.
At the time of his retirement, there was healthy debate as to whether or not anyone would be able to reach his career save total. Overall, he posted a 3.03 ERA and a 1.256 WHiP, striking out 1251 batters in 1289.1 innings. His most impressive statistic, however, was his save total. Smith saved 478 games, and was the all time leader from 1993 until he was passed by Trevor Hoffman in 2006.
Although he is still third all time in saves, Smith’s candidacy has been interesting. It once seemed as though he would eventually make the MLB Hall of Fame, being named on 50.6% of the ballots in 2012. Since then, his support has decreased, as Smith was named on only 34.1% of the ballots last year.
Based on that trend, it appears that Smith will only be inducted into the Hall of Fame if he gets in through the Veteran’s Committee. An increase of over 40% in his final year on the ballot is entirely improbable.
Sammy Sosa (1989-2005, 2007)
There had been a time when Sammy Sosa was beloved by the sportswriters, when he was considered to have saved the game along with Mark McGwire. The affable, fun loving Sosa was the perfect poster child for the Home Run Era.
Beloved by fans and the media alike, Sosa transformed from a skinny speedster to a bulked up slugger. The only player to hit 60 homers in a season three times, he ironically did not lead the league in any of them. However, Sosa was a seven time All Star, a six time Sliver Slugger, and the 1998 National League MVP, surpassing McGwire, despite his 70 homers. And Sosa did end up leading the league in home runs twice in his career.
Sosa would go on to be one of the premier sluggers that the game has ever seen. The fifth player to hit 600 homers in their career, he finished with 609 home runs. Sosa also hit at a .273/.344/.534 clip, with 1667 RBI and 234 stolen bases. Those numbers would seemingly be more than enough to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
Instead, Sosa is buried on the ballot, barely receiving enough support to stay above the minimums. Hounded by PED accusations, he conveniently “forgot” how to speak English during Congressional hearings on steroids in baseball. He was also listed as one of the 104 players to test positive for steroids in 2003, when testing first came to the game.
Unless PED users are put into the Hall of Fame en masse, Sammy Sosa will not get nearly the support needed to be inducted. Watching Sosa go from one of the more celebrated players in the game, to a pariah within a decade, was fascinating to watch.
Matt Stairs (1992-1993, 1995-2011)
Matt Stairs played virtually everywhere, bouncing around the Majors, the minors, and even spending time in Nippon Pro Baseball. A solid power bat, and a valued bench player, his services were in demand.
Even though he spent most of his career in a part time or pinch hitting role, Stairs was still a solid producer. He hit 20 or more homers six times, and holds the record with 21 pinch hit homers. Although he never made an All Star Game, he hit 38 homers in 1999, and had two seasons with 100 or more RBI. That 1999 season, one of his best in the Majors, earned him his only MVP votes.
During his well traveled career, Stairs was typically a threat with the bat. Overall, he produced a .262/.356/.477 batting line, hitting 265 homers and driving in 899 runs. He accomplished those marks despite having only 6024 plate appearances, or just over 300 plate appearances per season in his 19 year career.
Stairs rarely stayed in one place for long, playing with 13 different Major League teams. Of all those clubs, he only spent more than two years with three of them. Unsurprisingly, Stairs had some of his best production in those stops. However, as a player who was typically relegated to a bench or pinch hitting role, his overall numbers were lower than one would have expected with his ability.
Despite being a highly sought after bat, Matt Stairs will not receive bonus points for playing on 13 different Major League teams. In fact, his candidacy is likely to be over after this time on the ballot.
Jason Varitek (1997-2011)
It took until Jason Varitek was 26 years old until he had a chance at the Major League level, but he certainly did the most with his opportunity when it finally happened.
Known for his fiery attitude, he quickly became a fan favorite for the Red Sox. A three time All Star, Varitek won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award in 2005. Even on a team with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, it was Varitek who was named Captain, wearing the C on his jersey for the rest of his career.
Known for his ability to call a game, Varitek joined Ray Schalk as the only player to catch four no hitters, although Schalk had one of his later removed. He was more than just a great caller of games however, as he produced a solid .256/.341/.435 batting line, hitting 193 home runs and 306 doubles.
A key part of the Red Sox team that broke the Curse of the Bambino, Varitek may well receive more support for the MLB Hall of Fame than he normally would have. In fact, he could well be a Don Mattingly style player in regards to his support, staying in the 20% to 20% range while remaining on the ballot for his allotted decade.
Jason Varitek had a very good career, but it was not Hall of Fame caliber. Still, he will remain on the ballot for his allotted time, and may find himself considered by the Veteran’s Committee in time.
Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Billy Wagner’s career is all the more remarkable when one realizes that he never led the league in saves, despite ranking sixth all time in MLB history.
A hard thrower, Wagner became one of the more dominant closers in the game during the late 1990’s and through the 2000’s. Known for his high octane fastball, Wagner saved 30 or more games in eight different seasons, making seven All Star Games. A relative rarity as a left handed closer, Wagner was more than equal to the task.
Despite never leading the league in saves, he had a stellar career. In his 16 seasons, Wagner posted a 2.31 ERA and a 0.998 WHiP. His WHiP is lower than that of Mariano Rivera, and only Rivera has a better ERA+ mark than Wagner’s 187, although he did not meet the 1000 inning requirement to reach the leaderboard. Add in his 422 career saves, and Wagner was quite the dominant closer.
However, his success was overshadowed by the performances of both Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. Meanwhile, Wagner is remembered for his struggles in the postseason, where he had a 10.03 ERA and a 1.971 WHiP. Those postseason struggles, and the successes of his contemporaries, led to a low vote total of 10.5% last year, making his enshrinement unlikely.
One of the best closers of his time, Billy Wagner should have a better chance at getting into the MLB Hall of Fame. However, considering that he is remembered more for his failures than his successes, that seems unlikely to happen.
Tim Wakefield (1992-1993, 1995-2011)
A corner infielder in the minors, Tim Wakefield developed a knuckleball after a scout told him that his skillset on the diamond would not get him past AA. That move to become a knuckleballer did wonders for his career.
After taking the National League by storm as a rookie with the Pirates, he was back in the minors two years later. Signed by the Red Sox after being released in 1995, he spent 17 years with the club, the most of any pitcher in team history. Along the way, he became a steady innings eater, willing to fill a variety of roles. Wakefield even served as the Red Sox closer in 1999, notching 15 saves will invoking images of Hoyt Wilhelm.
Using that knuckler, Wakefield finally received an All Star Game nod in 2009, the first and only of his career. Still, even without the accolades, Wakefield had a solid career, posting a 200-180 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.350 WHiP. He even recorded 22 saves in his time in the bullpen, helping the Red Sox in a variety or ways.
Despite being a fan favorite, and being a part of two World Series winning teams in Boston, Wakefield just does not have the numbers for enshrinement. He may generate some support due to his presence in Boston, and what he meant to the team, but he is just not at that level needed. It was a nice career, and Wakefield was one of the top statistical pitchers in Red Sox history, but that does not put him in Cooperstown.
Tim Wakefield may generate enough support to remain on the ballot for more than one season, but he will not get much more than the minimum. One of the last of a dying breed, Wakefield was a good pitcher, nothing more and nothing less.
Larry Walker (1989-2005)
A good hitter when he was with the Montreal Expos, Larry Walker’s career took off when he went to the Colorado Rockies. However, his production in the thin air of Coors Field has led quite a few voters to wonder how inflated those numbers are.
A solid all around player, Walker was just as good with the glove as he was with the bat. A five time All Star, and the 1997 National League MVP, Walker also won seven Gold Glove awards and three Silver Sluggers. He won three batting titles, and from 1997 through 1999, produced an incredible .369/.451/.689 batting line.
Injuries kept Walker from having the type of career numbers that one would have expected, but he still put together a solid career. He posted a .313/.400/.565 batting line, hitting 383 home runs and 471 doubles. Walker also chipped in 230 steals over his 17 year career, and stole 20 or more bases three times.
However, considering that he played in Colorado for a decade, his career numbers seem a bit low. Of course, considering that he spent time on the disabled list in ten of years, and was often affected by nagging injuries, that lowered production was hardly his fault. Yet, after receiving only 15.5% of the vote last year, his sixth on the ballot, it seems that he will remain on the outside looking in.
Larry Walker was a very good player, and one who had times of greatness. Unfortunately, his inability to remain healthy may end up keeping him from the Hall of Fame.
So, who gets in?
Now that we have taken a look at the 34 players on the ballot, let us look to see who gets inducted.
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On a personal level, I feel that the PED users should be allowed into the MLB Hall of Fame. These substances were not banned by the sport at the time, and as a good percentage of the league was on something, these were still some of the best players of that era. After all, it was just another era in the history of the game.
With that in mind, my own personal ballot would include a few PED users. When my IBWAA ballot is sent in, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez, and Ivan Rodriguez would be named. Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, and Tim Raines, who would also be on the ballot, would also have been named.
In regards to the BBWAA ballot, and the 2017 MLB Hall of Fame class, this year’s ballot should be interesting. Raines, Bagwell, and Hoffman seem to be locks to get in this time, and Rodriguez may have the best chance of any of the new arrivals. My prediction is that those four get in, with Guerrero coming close.
Next: Three executives deserve enshrinement
Who would you put in the MLB Hall of Fame? Let us know in the comments!