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Los Angeles Dodgers Now Have Two Directions to Go

By Jason Burke

Oct 18, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) celebrates with center fielder Joc Pederson (31) after hitting a solo home run during the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs in game three of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) celebrates with center fielder Joc Pederson (31) after hitting a solo home run during the sixth inning against the Chicago Cubs in game three of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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With the new CBA being agreed upon late Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers now have some interesting choices to make starting this winter.

The Los Angeles Dodgers sit atop the payroll pyramid having spent well over $200M this past season, and the consensus seemed to be that they would continue that trend this winter by re-signing key free agents Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen to lucrative contracts. Now, with penalties in place for spending well above the luxury tax, which is set to increase to $210M over the next few years, the Dodgers may not just be taxed from their never-ending supply of financial gains, but they will be subject to losing more draft picks as well.

If the Dodgers were to sign a free agent with a qualifying offer attached (read: The players they’d want), in this year’s market Edwin Encarnacion is a prime example (but excluded from these penalties which begin next season) a team that has surpassed the luxury tax, like the Dodgers, would give up a 2nd and a 5th round pick, along with $1M in international bonus money, which is now also starting at $4.75M per team. For teams under the cap, say the San Francisco Giants, who typically come fairly close to the luxury tax but never seem to exceed their limits, the penalty of signing one of these players would be a 3rd round pick.

Obviously this is meant to discourage teams from spending more and trying to buy a championship by hurting how they can supplement their farm system through the draft. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have had the best of both worlds of late, having seemingly unlimited financial resources while also boasting excellent farm systems. These new rules should curtail that a bit.

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The question on hand now is this: Should the Dodgers still attempt to re-sign Turner and Jansen, which would bring them ever closer to the 2017 luxury tax of $195M (they have $114.5 in base pay at the moment spread about for eight players), or should they start trying to use that farm system of theirs to bring in talent on team-friendly deals? They could overpay for an Evan Longoria/Chris Archer combo if need be while improving the club and not adding a ridiculous amount of payroll. The duo would add $18M to the Los Angeles payroll for 2017. If the Dodgers were to sign all of their arbitration eligible players for their projected totals, that would leave them with an 18-man roster at 147.8M. The Dodgers could theoretically still add Jansen at $15M per season and still have some money to fill out their roster and come close to the limit.

That is, if there wasn’t more money laying around that they have to dole out. Carl Crawford was DFA’d during the season and is still due $21.857M next year. Add in money that they are still giving to Matt Kemp, Hector Olivera, Alex Guerrero and Jose Tabata, and that brings their payroll to 205.6M with Longoria and Archer, but sans Jansen and a complete roster.

There are seemingly three options right now: The first is to start playing their younger players while they are affordable and get the payroll down. This would likely mean handing the NL West to the Giants in the process. The second is to attempt to trade for Chris Sale and David Robertson and find a plug-and-play third baseman on the cheap, setting them up to win while filling a couple of holes. The final option is to say screw it and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow and keep on spending.

The Dodgers have the resources to make this whole thing work and remain competitive in the process, but with other teams knowing what the Dodgers are up against, it could lead to a higher price of acquisition for Los Angeles if they go the trade route, or it could lead to players signing for less money to play for the Dodgers (wait, what?) if they feel that they have a better chance at winning a title.

Next: The Astros and Edwin Saga

The new CBA should make this a very interesting winter and could show us which direction teams like the Dodgers will be headed in the near future.

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