Houston Astros: What’s Next?

The Houston Astros have been busy this offseason, adding Josh Reddick and Nori Aoki to the outfield mix, Brian McCann behind the dish, Carlos Beltran as some extra thump in the lineup, and Charlie Morton for some reason.

Just kidding Charlie. Morton’s spin rate has been among the league leaders and the Morton signing could be another Collin McHugh-esque deal for the Houston Astros. The primary focus of the team this winter has been to improve their offense, with McCann representing an upgrade over Jason Castro and Beltran some how, some way likely improving the production at first base whether it’s him picking balls in the dirt or Evan Gattis.

The one area that could still use an upgrade is the starting rotation. Dallas Keuchel has the stuff to lead the staff, but he’s coming off of a down year. Lance McCullers is in a similar boat, but it was injuries that kept him away. McHugh has been a solid contributor, but he’s not an ace type. Mike Fiers will eat up innings and give average production. Morton is in the mix, but so are Joe Musgrove and David Paulino along with some top pitching prospects that could see some time in the big leagues in 2017.

The Astros have the depth to make do, but they have some question marks as well. Astros owner Jim Crane had this to say about the upcoming winter meetings:

So if the big moves are over and done with, that means no Chris Archer. No Chris Sale. No Sonny Gray. No big moves. Rich Hill is rumored to be nearing a deal with the Dodgers. Edinson Volquez would have been a nice buy-low candidate for Houston, but he’s on board with Miami.

The starting pitcher market is barren, which is why the Rays and White Sox are asking for the equivalent of two moons in order to part ways with their aces. So who’s still out there?

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Two names that could make some sense for the Houston Astros are Tyson Ross, who was inexplicably non-tendered by the San Diego Padres on Friday, making one team very happy in 2017, and Ivan Nova, who had a resurgence with the Pittsburgh Pirates after being traded from the Bronx at the deadline.

Ross missed almost the entire 2016 season due to injury which raises a red flag, but if healthy he’s a quality starting pitcher. Having him third or fourth in the rotation would be a solid add for the Astros. From 2013 to 2015 with the Padres, Ross held a 3.07 ERA, averaged 172 innings and a 9.2 K/9 rate. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, which is an upgrade over most of the current rotation.

Nova is this year’s Rich Hill with a little more track record. He represents the ultimate wild card, being that he posted a 3.18 ERA in the second half of last year, but a 5.18 mark beforehand. The last good full season he had was in 2013. There are plenty of worries that go along with Nova, but the hope is that Ray Searage did enough pitcher whispering to fix Nova for the long haul.

Ross had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October and should have a four to six month window for recovery, which would be between February and April sometime. If he’s healthy, he’s the better bet of the two and would likely be good with a one year value building deal. Nova will be looking at about the same amount annually ($10-12M guesstimate) but will be looking for more than one year.

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There aren’t many non-big starting pitchers that can represent upgrades to the Astros roster, but these two guys hold some value and could represent big upgrades in the rotation. Both come with some risk, but if they pay off, they could pay off in a big way for a Houston that is setting themselves up to contend for the American League crown.